NCAA Tournament Snubs

By now everyone knows the snubs by now. What I will look at here is who the snubs should replace in the field and where there are other issues (seeding).

Teams that should be in (no Virginia Tech here, after the win over Duke all they had to do was hold serve at home against a Boston College team that also missed the field and they were blown out)

Colorado – The Buffaloes have the biggest beef in a long time. They have three wins over five-seed Kansas St., a win over four-seed Texas and a win over 11-seed Missouri. In a year where everyone is severely flawed, there is nobody with those kinds of quality wins that got left out other than the Buffaloes. Team that should have been left out in favor of Colorado: UAB. The Blazers had no big wins in the non-conference schedule (like Colorado), but also played in a league where there were no big wins to be had. You play in a league like that, go win some non-conference games to get in.

Harvard – Beaten on a buzzer-beater in the Ivy League playoff by conference overlord Princeton, Harvard won 23 games with quality wins over fellow bubble burst teams from Colorado and Boston College. Along with that, other than a road rivalry loss to Yale, there are no bad losses on the resume. Team that should have been left out in favor of Harvard: Michigan St. The margins of victory need to matter and the Spartans were incredibly lucky to not get saddles with a nine-game losing streak this year considering the stretch where they lost six out of nine games and all three wins were home overtime wins. Combine that with having only one decent out of conference win (other than beating Washington, Sparty lost all of its high profile games just like a non-power conference team would) and you have a team that should be thankful the bubble was so weak this season.

Alabama – 12-4 in the SEC along with a quality win in the conference tournament. Yes, I know that the Crimson Tide were awful in the non-conference season, but 12 wins in the SEC got a just as flawed Kentucky team with no quality non-conference wins in three years ago with a bubble that wasn't near as soft as this one. That, and not allowing Alabama in discounts the ability for teams to improve as the season goes on and still get into the tournament. Team that should have been left out in favor of Alabama: Illinois. The Fighting Illini got significantly worse as the season went along. Different bracket prediction sites talked ad naseum over the last few weeks about Illinois doing everything they could to play their way out of the tournament. Other than a win over North Carolina (before the Tar Heels figured out what they were doing), the Illini really didn't have a ton of quality wins. They also threw in some awful losses (Illinois-Chicago and Indiana) to go along with a 6-10 finish. How is that worthy of the tournament.

Seeding snubs

The Big 12 – The Big 12 (at least those not in the state of Kansas) got screwed as far as seeding goes. Texas is under seeded as a four (probably should be a three over BYU and a case can be made for a two in Florida's spot). Texas A&M also ended up way under seeded at seven (likely should be switched with conference rival Kansas St. on the five line) as did Missouri at 11 (how does Missouri end up two seed lines lower than Illinois who they beat and have a stronger resume than). Of course Colorado missing the field entirely also is a part of this discussion.

Kentucky – How did the Wildcats end up two full seed lines below Florida. The Gators resume isn't that much better than Kentucky's and Kentucky beat Florida two out of three this season.

Richmond – The Spiders were thought to be in the tournament before the A-10 final. Their seeding indicates that is not the case and its insane. The Spiders beat Purdue and Temple along the way and were 13-3 in a top ten league. They should have been closer to a 7-10 game and possibly in the 8-9 game.

Mountain West Conference Tournament Preview

This one will be a little more in-depth than the others in part because I have followed this league closer than the others over the course of the season.

Opening Round

Wyoming vs TCU – Both of these teams are awful. Wyoming has already fired its coach while TCU can't win in this league meaning it will be even worse once they are in the Big East in two years. I pick Wyoming but it doesn't really matter one way or the other with both teams already carrying 20 losses entering tonight’s game.

Quarterfinals

BYU vs Wyoming – Wyoming has no ability to exploit the Brandon Davies absence. We already saw that last Saturday. Combine that fact with the Cowboys being good and BYU being so much better that Jimmer might not even have to play and you get an ugly blowout.

Colorado St. vs New Mexico – I don't understand why either of these teams are even being talked about for NCAA bids. 9-7 in this league has never gotten a team an at-large so what makes anyone think 9-7 in Colorado St.'s case or 8-8 in New Mexico's case is getting either of these teams in the field without the automatic bid. As for that automatic bid, New Mexico has a much better chance to get it than Colorado St. because of whatever mojo they seem to have against BYU over the last few seasons. Too bad for the Lobos that they have underachieved, especially since Drew Gordon and his nightly double-double became eligible (note that UCLA seems to be just fine without their walking chemistry issue). They will continue to underachieve here making life much easier for BYU in the next round.

UNLV vs Air Force – Tre'von Willis and the rest of the UNLV roster is starting to get hot again like they were early in the season. That is bad news for Air Force and whoever else might draw the Rebels in this tournament being played on UNLV's home court.

San Diego St. vs Utah – Utah is awful and has nobody to send at San Diego St's second-tier starts, let alone at Kawhi Leonard. This could be very ugly if San Diego St. is properly motivated.

Semifinals

BYU vs Colorado St. - One post player is not enough to beat BYU even without Brandon Davies unless everyone shoots lights out. Colorado St. won't shoot lights out and while they have one very good post player in Andy Ogide, they don't have the depth needed to really take advantage. Combine that with BYU seemingly having its focus back after the blowout loss to New Mexico last week and you have a recipe for trouble.

San Diego St. vs UNLV – Expect another knockdown-drag out fight between these two reminiscent of the last few games in this series. When the teams are evenly matched as these teams are (all the games have been close into the final minutes for three years), the lucky bounces are bound to fall the other way eventually. Considering San Diego St. has been winning this game for four years without a blowout among them, the Rebels are due, particularly if the recent hot shooting streak continues.

Final

BYU vs UNLV – Here is where the absence of Brandon Davies will kill BYU. Not because UNLV has depth in the post to throw at BYU though. It's because UNLV has NO depth in the post and Davies will no longer be there to exploit it. In the first game this season in Las Vegas, Davies had his way with the Rebels early opening things up for Jimmer and Jackson Emery to light UNLV up from the outside. Without Davies in the lineup, there is no inside go-to guy to take the pressure off the shooters against UNLV's aggressive man-to-man defense. At the same time, UNLV, if in fact they are in this game will have shot well. If UNLV shoots well early, teams have to switch away from zone defense. When teams in this league play man-to-man against UNLV, they get destroyed because UNLV is more athletic than anyone in the league (except possibly San Diego St.). Both problems will surface here with UNLV finally getting past BYU again after losing both games in the regular season.

Big Ten Tournament Preview and Predictions

After five of these over the last few days, everyone should know what is coming here.

First Round
Northwestern vs Minnesota – Minnesota is in free fall. Northwestern, while nothing great, can at least shoot the ball from long range decently. That should be enough against the imploding Gophers.

Michigan St. vs Iowa – While I would for Iowa to win so we can be rid of Michigan St. as the story, it won't happen here. That would only happen if Michigan St. overlooked the Hawkeyes and after losing to them by over 20 last month and watching them beat Purdue on Saturday as a reminder, Sparty will be focused.

Penn St. vs Indiana – Penn St. has Talor Battle. The few players Indiana does have are all hurt. Nittany Lions win easily (or as easily as they are capable of winning).

Second Round
Ohio St. vs Northwestern – If Northwestern shoots well, they have a chance to pull the upset (they were close in Evanston). I don't think they will, especially with how hot Ohio St.'s shooters have been the last couple of weeks, but it's possible.

Michigan vs Illinois – Michigan is going to win since Illinois continues to be intent on underachieving and trying to play its way out of the NCAA Tournament.

Purdue vs Michigan St. - Poor Sparty. They are going to get an angry set of Boilermakers after Purdue's ugly loss to Iowa last Saturday. Even with Kalin Lucas continuing to get better after his achilles injury in last year's NCAA Tournament, Michigan St. has little chance here.

Wisconsin vs Penn St. - Wisconsin's offense, while slow paced, is way too good for Penn St. The efficiency will carry the Badgers to an easy win behind their two star players (Jordan Taylor and the semi-forgotten Jon Leuer.

Semifinals
Ohio St. vs Michigan – By this point, Ohio St. will be lacking motivation. It's time for a break before the tournament starts. Michigan will win because they have more motivation.

Purdue vs Wisconsin – Wisconsin doesn't beat equal or better teams on road or neutral courts. Purdue is pretty much equal and the court is neutral meaning a Wisconsin loss.

Final
Purdue vs Michigan – Michigan won't win three in a row here so the pick is Purdue with its two star players to ride into the tournament on a high.

ACC Tournament Preview and Predictions

Continuing in the conference tournament prediction line, the ACC starts tomorrow and has three bubble teams that need wins along with its top two playing for potential number one seeds. Let's get to the predictions.

Thanks to the5thcorner.com for the bracket.

First Round

Virginia vs Miami – Neither team is really any good, but Miami has looked better throughout the season once you discount Virginia's wins over Virginia Tech where the Hokies looked totally spooked and out of it for some reason. Hurricanes win, but this game really lacks relevance.

Boston College vs Wake Forest – Boston College will win. Wake is awful (as in down with DePaul, LSU and Auburn bad among BCS conference teams). Even if they win I won't feel bad picking against them since it would be a huge upset.

Maryland vs NC State – The Terps have Jordan Williams and a host of wins over bad to awful teams. The Wolfpack have an overmatched coach and no wins of value all season long. Maryland wins if they care to show up.

Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech – Seth Greenberg could easily find a way to lose this game and send his team to the wrong side of the bubble, again, but I think Georgia Tech has given up at this point and soon to be fired (as least I hope so because I am tired of reading every year that he is on the hotseat) coach Paul Hewitt may have as well. Hewitt has noticeably aged quite a bit the last three years. Hokies win and finally put Hewitt out of his coaching misery.

Second Round

North Carolina vs Miami – Hurricanes aren't ready for this type of game. Carolina won't care in this event, as usual, but it won't matter yet.

Clemson vs Boston College – Clemson is just a better team in my opinion despite no real evidence in either direction. Tigers win.

Duke vs Maryland – The Terps don't fear Duke, but they lack talent and Duke will be motivated after the season ending loss to North Carolina. Expect it to be Blue Devils, big.

Florida St. vs Virginia Tech – Florida St. has looked much better than expected since Chris Singleton's injury and those performances give confidence they can beat middling bubble teams like Virginia Tech.

Semifinals

North Carolina vs Clemson – Clemson never beats North Carolina on the road, but they have been better in recent years against the Tar Heels at home. At a neutral site, I bank on Roy Williams general dislike for conference tournaments to carry the first competent opponent past his Tar Heels unless he has a national title level team. The form holds here.

Duke vs Florida St. - The Seminoles barely beat Duke at home with Chris Singleton. No way they win on a neutral (leaning-Duke) court without Singleton in the lineup.

Final

Duke vs Clemson – This is a terrible matchup for this year's slower paced Clemson squad. Duke will run over the Tigers on the way to an undeserved top seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Big 12 Tournament Preview

Third in my series of seven conference tournament previews. Big 12 is now (with cool bracket that the Pac-10 didn't have unless the women's bracket was included too).

First Round

Nebraska vs Oklahoma St. - Cornhuskers aren't very good away from home and I feel like they have overachieved whereas Oklahoma St. has underachieved. Regression to the mean is coming here. Oklahoma St. will win easily.

Colorado vs Iowa St. - Iowa St. beat Colorado last week, but that was in Ames. Colorado will be better on a neutral court and Alec Burks is the type of player that can carry a team in a tournament.

Baylor vs Oklahoma – Baylor is just so annoying to watch with all of its underachieving talent while Oklahoma finally shook off its headcase issues from last season. The problem is the method used was exiling all of the talent. Baylor will win on talent alone, but not because they actually do anything together.

Missouri vs Texas Tech – The Red Raiders really have nothing to play for. The coach has been fired, the record stinks and there is no way this team wins four straight games. Its pack-in time and an easy Missouri win.

Second Round

Kansas vs Oklahoma St. - We saw this matchup not to long ago. Its doesn't end well for Oklahoma St.

Kansas St. vs Colorado – The Wildcats will be motivated for revenge after losing to Colorado twice during the season. Too bad for Alec Burks that Jacob Pullen of Kansas St. is also the type of player who can carry a team through a short tournament like this.

Texas vs Baylor – We just saw this on Baylor's home floor. If desperation against a cold Texas team didn't save them then, it won't help now.

Texas A&M vs Missouri – This was one of the best games of the season and it showed Missouri is as good as A&M if not better. The game was on the road and Missouri was close. Bad omen for the Aggies.

Semifinals

Kansas vs Kansas St. - Neither matchup this season is particularly relevant here. They were both ugly blowouts in favor of the home team. Kansas St. is on fire though and will pull through here against a Kansas team that has already likely locked up a top seed.

Texas vs Missouri – Texas hasn't been playing well and still won't here. The Longhorns will only get this far because they play dysfunctional Baylor in their first game. Missouri will be out to prove that road woes don't mean neutral court woes to and they will here.

Final

Kansas St. vs Missouri – Kansas St. is just the better team. No 40 minute press will change that and if the game in Columbia was played again today, the Wildcats would win.

Pac-10 Conference Tournament Preview

Just as I did for the Big East yesterday, here is my game by game preview of the Pac-10 basketball tournament starting tomorrow night in Los Angeles (sorry no cool bracket like yesterday).

First Round

Stanford vs Oregon St. - Stanford isn't any good, but Oregon St. is awful unless on their home court. Mr. President's brother-in-law is going home early again at this event.

Oregon vs Arizona St. - It's the same deal for Oregon as with Oregon St. Arizona St. has been playing a little better the last couple of weeks. Sun Devils will pull the upset.

Second Round

USC vs Cal – USC has a lot of people on the bandwagon because of its hot play lately. In this inconsistent league, there is no way the chalk pick is winning when that chalk pick finished fourth in the league. That and Cal point guard Brandon Smith won't turn the ball over the way USC really needs a point guard to to win. Cal wins.

Arizona vs Stanford – Derrick Williams and Momo Jones will break the Cardinal, again.

UCLA vs Arizona St. - The Sun Devils aren't good enough to win multiple games in this tournament, especially against a team like UCLA trying to improve its NCAA seeding (that is avoiding the 8-9 game).

Washington vs Washington St. - We have seen twice already this season that this is a bad matchup for the Huskies. With Klay Thompson's suspension lifted for Washington St., it will happen a third time.

Semifinals

Arizona vs Cal – These two played one of the best games of the season at Cal going triple overtime before the aforementioned Brandon Smith blew a layup that allowed Arizona to escape with a win. With a lot more to play for, Cal will upset Arizona.

UCLA vs Washington St. - UCLA should have lost to Washington St. last Saturday. With Thompson back on the roster, the Cougars will win the game setting up a crazy bid-stealer matchup in the final.

Final

Cal vs Washington St. - The Cougars are the better team despite their lower finish in the standings, but Cal will win because Washington St. throws clunkers in at inopportune and unpredictable times. With that reputation, picking them to reach the final is a risk and there is no way I am predicting them to win the tournament. Cal will steal a bid from somebody.

NCAA Tourney Bid Thieves

Possible bid thief leagues

Every year, a league or two produces an upset conference tournament champion to steal a bid to the NCAA Tournament from some unsuspecting bubble team. I am not talking about small conference one-bid league teams here either. I am referring to the likes of Georgia in 2008 and Houston last season that stole bids (likely from Virginia Tech in both cases sending Seth Greenberg to apoplectic insanity on the ESPN selection special each year). Here is my countdown of the most likely leagues to produce a bid-stealer.

1 Colonial Athletic – Most seasons, this is a one bid league. Not this year. George Mason is a lock and Old Dominion is certainly on the positive side of the bubble. In addition, Virginia Commonwealth spent much of its season on the bubble before recently falling off. With the tournament in Richmond, just a few miles from the VCU campus, the Rams are a possible thief as is Hofstra. The Pride have the best player in the league and the best player can carry a team through a three day tournament if he gets hot.

Most likely thief: VCU

2 Pac-10 – Nobody is really sold on Arizona, UCLA or Washington at this point and all have at least one brutal loss to someone outside of that group. USC, Washington St., or even Cal could get hot in this tournament and steal a bid and nobody would really bat an eye at it. The only question if that happens is if they steal conference rival Washington's bid or somebody else's.

Most likely thief: USC

3 SEC – Kentucky can't win away from home and Florida, with the exception of the dominating championship teams has traditionally treated this event with disdain. This makes a thief possible here, especially with Tennessee's inconsistency and Vanderbilt's inability to hold leads at times. Maybe a team from the West can finally make some noise here (looking at you Mississippi St. with your underachieving talent).

Most likely thief: Mississippi St.

Now, we look the other way. These leagues have a 0% chance of a bid thief. In fact I will print this post out and eat it if any of these leagues produce a thief.

1 Big East – With 11 teams pretty much locked in and no bubble teams, this league would seem to be a possible lack of motivation league. One problem: the bottom five in this league have to play five games in five days. No thief is going through five locks in five days to win this thing no matter how unmotivated the opposition might be in some of the games.

2 Mountain West – The top three in this league are all locked in and other than BYU's loss to New Mexico, none of them have lost a game to a team below 4^th in the standings all season. That will continue in the league tournament as the top three and bubble hopeful Colorado St. cruise to the semifinals.

3 Big 12 – Any team good enough to get through this bracket is either already a lock, or is a bubble team that wouldn't be stealing a bid because it would have been earned before the league final. If anyone thinks Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., Texas Tech or Iowa St. is winning this tournament, they are insane.

Race for Number 1

The battle for number one seeds has been raging for awhile now. Here are the contenders with the chances they actually attain a spot on the top line of the tournament bracket. Teams listed in order of probability to be a top seed.

Ohio St. - Buckeyes have a truckload of quality wins and have only lost on the road to teams that are tournament locks and are undefeated at home this season. Even a loss to Penn St. won't knock Ohio St. off the top line unless it is followed by a loss in the Big Ten quarters. Not only is Ohio St. going to be a number one seed, they are likely to be the top overall seed.

Kansas – Jayhawks are now in cruise control towards a top seed of their own. Losing at Missouri, if it happens won't hurt since nearly everybody losses to them on the road. In addition, there are strong teams up and down the Big 12 roster meaning a conference tournament loss won't drop Kansas to a two unless there are some serious runs made by teams below.

BYU – The first of our teams that likely needs to win out to get its top seed. BYU has four wins against RPI top 25 teams and another five against the top 50 beyond that. The losses are not bad and the the overall RPI is number one. The only reason the Cougars have to win out for a top seed is because of their conference affiliation. If not for that, BYU would be above Kansas and possibly in contention for the top overall seed.

Pittsburgh – The Big East regular season champ is getting a top seed unless they flame out in the conference tournament. Pitt is the leader making them the most likely top seed from that league. Lose one of the remaining two league games (they will be heavily favored at South Florida and against collapsing Villanova) and the league title and possibly top seed goes out the window with it.

Duke – Blue Devils really don't have a top seed resume because the ACC is down, but if they win out or even just win to the ACC Tournament final, they will be given the benefit of the doubt unless the teams in front of them don't lose before them.

Notre Dame – Only in the discussion if Pitt loses a game. Then the Fighting Irish could grab the Big East regular season title (they own the tiebreaker with Pittsburgh because of a head-to-head win, on the road). Do that and take the conference tournament and there is no way a top seed could be denied short of BYU and Duke both winning out.

Purdue – In a similar situation as Notre Dame. In need of an Ohio St. loss to grab a share of the Big Ten title and then win the league tournament. That still may no be enough, but they are at least on the fringe of the discussion.

San Diego St. - Not likely, but if some teams above flame out in conference tournaments, the Aztecs could get back in the equation by winning out and then beating UNLV and BYU in the league tournament to win it. Still more likely to end up as a three than a one.

North Carolina – Once again, not likely. I think they cap at a two, but if they win out to take both ACC championships with a win over Duke in the final, it would be tough to deny them a seed higher than Duke's and the top ACC team generally gets a beneficial seed bump each season whether they deserve it or not.

Texas – Because of their high-profile in this discussion over the last few weeks, I feel I should discuss the Longhorns. They have no chance at a top seed though. It's not happening no matter what. The blowout loss to USC along with losses to Nebraska and Colorado just won't get a team to the top line unless the rest has been perfection. Given the loss to Kansas St. at home last night, perfection is far far away.