Thanksgiving Weekend College Football Picks

Results

Last Week SU: 5-5 ATS: 7-3

Season to Date SU: 69-51 ATS: 61-56-3

Game of the Week – LSU vs Arkansas

Considering this is a 1 vs 3 game on Thanksgiving weekend, it seems nobody really cares. Part of that is that its not one of the traditional rivalry games. Part of that is that even though Arkansas is number 3 in the country, they are also number 3 in the SEC. The majority of it is that Arkansas is way, way, way overrated and they are about to prove why, getting steamrolled by LSU. The best Arkansas wins this season are over middling, 6-5 Texas A&M in a game where they were blown out in the 1^st half before coming back and 9-2 South Carolina that has taken advantage of a weak middle of the SEC (like Arkansas has). In fact, given South Carolina's resume, you can make the case that they are weaker than Auburn with a much easier schedule and higher preseason accolades. Given all of that, I expect this game to look a lot like the Arkansas loss to Alabama. It will be close early, LSU will get a lead and Arkansas won't be able to respond. The result will be an ugly looking blowout.

LSU 41, Arkansas 17

Auburn vs Alabama

This game, on the other hand, is going to be much closer than most seem to think it will be. Auburn will be ready to play and the young Tigers will be ready to play at home as they have been all season (undefeated at home, blown out in 4 of 5 road games). That said, it still won't get them the win. Alabama is way too good on offense for the middling Auburn defense to stop consistently enough to win the game.

Alabama 31, Auburn 21

Virginia vs Virginia Tech

Is it sad that I write a college football blog and can't name any Virginia players even though I have watched Virginia play 3 of the last 5 weeks. Of course that says something about how non-descript and starless the Cavaliers are. Against a Virginia Tech team with some legitimate offensive players (QB Logan Thomas and RB David Wilson), that won't be enough, even at home.

Virginia Tech 27, Virginia 17

Wisconsin vs Penn St.

Penn St. seemed much more comfortable last week on the road against Ohio St. than they were at home against Nebraska. That said, it likely won't matter this week unless the Nittany Lions find some offensive firepower that has been lacking all season season long since Russell Wilson and Montee Ball are likely to score more than the 21 points ceiling Penn St. has been stuck under for most of the season.

Wisconsin 30, Penn St. 14

Stanford vs Notre Dame

What is the best way to win the Heisman Trophy in a jumbled season like this one? Blow Notre Dame out in a spectacular performance. It has worked for many years and it could work for Andrew Luck this year. Of course that assumes a Cardinal blowout and the Cardinal seem to be running out of gas as their lack of depth has finally caught up to them late in the season. Notre Dame is also injured, but their closer than expected game against Boston College last week was likely more lookahead than run out of steam. For Stanford, the steam is gone.

Notre Dame 31, Stanford 28

South Carolina vs Clemson

Clemson's offense has peaked and regressed and with Sammy Watkins not at full strength, they won't be scoring a ton of points against the South Carolina defense that has only been torched once all seasons. At the same time, the South Carolina offense without Lattimore isn't going to be lighting it up, making this game a total toss up between two of the most inconsistent, underachieving programs in all of college football. When that happens, pick the better defensive line.

South Carolina 16, Clemson 14

Georgia Tech vs Georgia

As bad as the Bulldog defense was the last few years, most years they did a good job against the triple option. Considering the Bulldogs have a good defense this season, they should shut down the triple option again and Aaron Murray, after an off game against Kentucky, will be closer to his Auburn level.

Georgia 34, Georgia Tech 24

Tulsa vs Houston

This has ambush written all over it. The Tulsa offense led by G.J. Kinne has been good all season and the only three Tulsa losses are to Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. and Boise St. Combine that with a kickoff at the underdog's stadium on a short week and if Case Keenum and company don't get off to a good start, they could be in some trouble.

Tulsa 38, Houston 30

Oklahoma vs Iowa St.

Iowa St. has no chance this week. The combination of beating Oklahoma St., meaning they have the Sooners full attention and Oklahoma losing last week , meaning the Sooners are angry, mean the Kansas St. treatment is coming.

Oklahoma 59, Iowa St. 20

USC vs UCLA

UCLA can clinch the Pac-12 South. It's not happening The bruins still stink, no matter what their record says. Matt Barkley and company will make sure the Bruins and their fans remember that as they call for the firing of Rick Neuheisel at the end of the game.

USC 34, UCLA 14

Week 11 College Football Picks

Results thus far

Last Week: SU 6-4, ATS 6-3-1

Season to date: SU 60-40, ATS 50-47-3

Game of the Week – Stanford (-3.5) vs Oregon (Pac-12 North Championship)

The whole season for Stanford has been built around this game after losing only this game last season. It is a lot of pressure, but it is at home, something last season's game was not. Because of the home field, because of the extra motivation, because of everything on the line and because the Oregon offense hasn't been tested away from home since being stomped by LSU, Stanford will win the game, even if Oregon shows up healthy (a big questionmark at this point).

Stanford 42, Oregon 34

Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech (-1)

Over the last few seasons, there have been only two ways to stop the triple option. Number one is for Georgia Tech to stop the option themselves (a feat they easily managed against Miami).Number two is to have a good defense with a bye week to prepare (the debacle at Virginia). Considering Georgia Tech can perform number one almost any given week and number two is also in effect and Virginia Tech has a good offense of their own, it is easy to see why I am leaning the way I am.

Virginia Tech 30, Georgia Tech 20

Penn St. vs Nebraska (-3.5)

Good luck predicting this. Given everything that has transpired at Penn St. this week, I don't think any result would be surprising (other than Penn St. scoring 50 because no amount of extra effort and even execution is going to get this offense that high against any competent defense). That said, I think there is a big advantage for Penn St. here. That is the bye week. Despite all the issues, Paterno was there to help prep the team before the scandal and the current staff has been doing most of the work anyway, so I think Penn St. will be prepared and ready to play. I also think, on senior day, the effort will be there (I think a crash will be coming after this though) and the Nebraska defense has been average right along with the offense this season. The game will be ugly, just like most this season and Penn St. will win, just like most this season. At least, for a day, normalcy will reign.

Penn St. 17, Nebraska 10

Georgia (-13) vs Auburn

Those who read the SEC Reassessment post yesterday already know I am picking Georgia. This is why: First, Auburn is way overrated and has overachieved greatly to get to six wins by this point. On a down by down basis, they were beaten by Utah St. and Mississippi St. and probably should have lost the South Carolina game as well. At the same time, the Georgia defense has revived after a few years in the toilet. Yes, the opposition as been bad, but I think Auburn's offense this season is closer to that opposition than it was the last few seasons. The Georgia defense is going to kill it and the offense will move easily against the suspect Auburn defense.

Georgia 34, Auburn 20

Boise St. (-15.5) vs TCU

TCU's defense flat out isn't up to its normal standards. Considering its normal standards would have a difficult time winning here, I can't imagine a scenario where TCU wins without that defense suddenly finding its 2008-10 form. Kellen Moore, you're field day awaits.

Boise St. 38, TCU 17

Kansas St. vs Texas A&M (-4.5)

Who will respond better to its recent foibles. Kansas St. coming off of getting torched the last two weeks or Texas A&M and its continued forgetfulness that the 2^nd half (and in particular the 3^rd quarter) must be played, not ignored to win. Given what we know, I expect A&M to be the winner here. Reason: They can throw. Teams that can throw can obliterate the Kansas St. defense and there are now two weeks of tape showing how badly the K-St. Defense can be burned. I expect Texas A&M to take advantage.

Texas A&M 45, Kansas St. 31

USC (-12.5)vs Washington

Washington isn't ready on defense to win this type of game yet. Before you mention the Huskies have won this game the last two years, remember that USC those years wasn't as good as this season. Matt Barkley is going to have field day against a Washington defense that is going to have to sell out to stop the run.

USC 37, Washington 28

Florida St. (-9) vs Miami

Miami has ACC schizophrenia. They also have a good offense and a bad defense. Florida St. is much the same, but with better overall talent and they seem to be gaining some consistency.

Florida St. 34, Miami 30

Cincinnati (-3.5) vs West Virginia

The Mountaineer defense has collapsed. No question. Against Zach Collaros and the Cincinnati offense, that is the worst thing in the world. Knowing that the only way I can pick West Virginia is in a shootout, I can't do it. Cincinnati has more ways to win and could beat West Virginia is said shootout.

Cincinnati 41, West Virginia 31

Iowa vs Michigan St. (-2.5)

Top 7 teams in the Big Ten (Michigan St., Michigan, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Ohio St., Penn St., Iowa) have not beaten another team in that group in a road game. That will be continuing here, much though I loathe picking a team that lost to Minnesota. Of course that same miserable Minnesota team nearly won in East Lansing last week so maybe I shouldn't feel so bad.

Iowa 24, Michigan St. 23

World Cup Predictions - Netherlands finally

Yes the headline says it all. The Netherlands are going to finally win the World Cup after being close at many stages (losses in final in 1974 and 78, semifinal loss in 1998) and squandering some of the est attacking team in soccer history. With that out of the way, the question is how we get there?

Group A - South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France
The French are in disarray heading into the tournament again, but this time there is no ZInedine Zidane to rescue them. Combine that with the lack of talent from South Africa and Mexico and Uruguay will book passage to round 2 with Mexico topping the group.

Group B - Argentina, Nigeria, South Korea, Greece
Argentina are heavily favored but Maradona is insane as the coach. They will advance, but not until after a shocking loss to South Korea which will send the Koreans through over Nigeria. Greece, while a decent team is one I can stand to pick because of their negative football. They will not go pointless, but they won't advance. Not enough offense.

Group C - England, United States, Algeria, Slovenia
Ho hum. England and the US will play a close, tense match where the result really won't matter. England through in first and US through in second.

Group D - Germany, Australia, Serbia, Ghana
The most difficult group to predict, any combination of teams from this group is viable with Germany weakened by the absense of Michael Ballack and the strikers not in good form. Ghana would have also been a serious threat here but for the injury to Micheal Essien. Serbia while getting a lot of hype is not a team I trust, and Austrailia didn't look very sharp against the United States last week. When all else fails, go with the proven commodity and the suprise. Germany first and Australia second.

Group E - Netherlands, Denmark, Japan, Cameroon
The Dutch are going through easily here. The only question is if someone (Denmark?) can muster a draw. Of the remaining three, Cameroon has the best player in Samuel Eto'o but Denmark has the best defense. Japan is just here at this point. Netherlands first and Denmark second by marking Eto'o, Cameroon's only real goal scoring threat out of the game.

Group F - Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slovakia
Lets just write New Zealand off now. They may take a draw somewhere here but they aren't going to win a game and they certainly aren't going to advance. That leaves Italy, Paraguay and Slovakia. Italy is old and usually doesn't round into form at major tournaments until the knockout stages begin while Paraguay has been a consistent qualifier for awhile now. Slovaki will be the odd team out with no real experience to speak of. Paraguay first and Italy second as the Italian succumb to the New Zealand draw.

Group G - Brazil, North Korea, Portugal, Ivory Coast
Call this group the avoid Spain invitational. Second place here likely draws the Spanish team and that means there is every possibility of an early exit from one of the pre-tournament favorites. Also, poor North Korea. They are likely to get scored on a lot as the group could come down to goal differential if the others all split their games with one another. Ultimately, goal differential will be the key. Brazil, despite a loss to Ivory Coast will go through as will Portugal who defends much better than the Ivory Coast squad.

Group H - Spain, Switzerland, Honduras, Chile
Please let there be something on the line for both teams when Spain and Chile play just so we can see the 6-3 shootout that could occur. Chile throws caution to the wind and attacks like no other team in this tournament. It will get through in second place after the beatdown coming from Spain in the final group game. The reason for the beatdown is Spain's attack that has more firepower than any other team in the tournament. They will cruise here but need to play their starters to in the final game to avoid Brazil in round 2. Honduras and Switzerland are just here for window decorations.

Knockout stage matchups
Mexico vs Argentina - We see this matchup every so often in some tournament whether it be the Copa America or the World Cup. The result is always the same: Argentina wins.
England vs Australia - Australia doesn't have the firepower to hang with England unless the notoriously bad ENglish goalkeeping rears its ugly head (which it usually doesn't until later the tournament)
Netherlands vs Italy - Italy's old creaky defense is finally going to collapse here. Dutch through after a battle
Brazil vs Chile - Qualifying Results: Spetember 7, 2008 Brazil over Chile 3-0, September 9, 2009 Brazil over Chile 4-2. No more needs to be said
South Korea vs Uruguay - The South Korean run ends here against Uruguay's high-powered attack
Germany vs United States - Upset, Germany is highly vulnerable and doesn't have the offense to exploit the vulnerable American defense
Paraguay vs Denmark - Paraguay also has offense problems and Denmark will highlight those in a low scoring victory
Spain vs Portugal - Ronaldo is not good enough to beat this team on his own

Quarterfinals
Argentina vs England - We've seen this game in the World Cup a few times and it generally ends with England losing, usually on a goalkeeping gaffe or penalties (though Hand of God would be acceptable too). No change here.
Netherlands vs Brazil - Brazil has seemed off form for awhile now. Something has been missing despite their success in qualifying and in the Confederation's Cup. The Dutch will expose whatever that is.
Uruguay vs United States - This matchup will produce a highly unlikely semifinalist. It would also likely produce entertaining attacking end-to-end soccer as neither team has much of a defense to speak of and both teams are strong offensive teams. The tiebreaker here is in goal. Tim Howard is the difference
Denmark vs Spain - The Danes runs ends here as they capitulate to the Spanish deathstar.

Semifinals
Argentina vs Netherlands - Maradona finally gets in the way again and the Argentines blow it again the Dutch who seem ready to fall apart at the first sign of prosperity as usual. They can thank Maradona when they win the tournament
United States vs Spain - A rematch of a Confederations Cup semifinal from last year, the Spaniards won't underestimate the Americans this year and also won't have Charlie Davies speed to worry about. Even with that SPain outshot the US 29-9 last year. Another game like that and we are looking at a 3-1 Spanish win

Final
Netherlands vs Spain - A guaranteed first time winner of the World Cup here. Expect fantastic attacking soccer out of these two teams and a Dutch upset.

I've posted my picks, what do you think?

Note on the United States in the semifinals - No I don't think the US is really that good. The draw just works really well for them. In fact, Germany is the only one of the seven seeded team I believe the US has a chance to beat under knockout round pressure at this tournament. Also, if the Argentina group goes to form this all changes as the Americans would face Argentina in the quarterfinals and say goodbye (of course Mexico is another option as is France depending on how things play out)