BCS Preview: Sugar Bowl

Matchup – Michigan vs Virginia Tech

Road to the Sugar Bowl – Michigan: It is well publicized, but Michigan stunk the last few years. Since its epic loss to Ohio St. with a trip to the National Title Game on the line in 2006, the Wolverines have been bad. Then came new coach Brady Hoke. With him came less changes than expected to a good offense and a defense that found a pulse. With that defense came a 10-2 season that probably should have been one better (how did Michigan lose to Iowa?) and an at-large berth to the Sugar Bowl for its suffering fanbase that was key to the whole bowl situation considering nearly every bowl in the country would be falling over themselves to get Michigan this season after the last few years.

Road to the Sugar Bowl – Virginia Tech: Beat nobody at all (only Georgia Tech even had a pulse), win a weak division in a weak conference, get roasted by the best team on the schedule twice and get a massive favor done for them. Seriously, the Virginia Tech schedule was an embarrassment this year. There is a reason I picked them to go to the National Title game in the preseason and quality of team wasn't that reason. And if not for Clemson being much better than expected (and banishing at least some of the Clemson demons in big games), there is a very good chance I would have been right. Thankfully, the Hokies ended up here, even if it was undeserved and not in the National Title game with a 13-0 record against a weaker schedule than Boise St.

Michigan offense vs Virgtinia Tech defense: Advantage Michigan

Last I saw, the Virginia Tech defense was getting stomped by the Clemson offense. Michigan's offense is near the same caliber and runs the same type of system. The reality is that Virginia Tech is ill-equipped to deal with spread type teams of any type and Clemson was the only one with high level personnel the Hokies played. Expect this to look more like those game instead of the grinding defense first games we normally expect from the Hokies defense.

Virginia Tech offense vs Michigan defense: Advantage Michigan

The Virginia Tech offense was much better than usual this season. David Wilson is a very good running back and Logan Thomas, while still developing, turned in a fine first season as a starter. That said, Wilson can't do it alone and first year starters in bowl games can get overwhelmed because of the xtra scheming that can happen with the time off. Given a year, Thomas shreds most defenses (look out everyone next season). Right now, he will have his moments, but the formerly maligned Michigan defense will generally bottle things up like it did against Nebraska and Ohio St. (at least in the 2^nd half).

Final Verdict: Virginia Tech is the most overrated team in all of college football. It is also the most undeserving of all the BCS teams this season (including West Virginia). That is generally a bad combination, especially against a team that appears to be underrated because some of the voters can't get the images of the Michigan defense being destroyed with the same players the last couple of years. With a fans firmly in Michigan's corner, I expect a great performance from the Wolverines to launch them into the beginning of next season and a hyped up season opener against Alabama.

Michigan 37, Virginia Tech 20

BCS Preview: Fiesta Bowl

Matchup – Big 12 Champion Oklahoma St. vs Stanford

Road to the Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma St.: After a big season last year, hopes were high for Oklahoma St., starting in the top ten. The Cowboys got off to a flying 3-0 start including a blowout win over Arizona before facing Texas A&M. In that game, they trailed by a ton in the 3^rd quarter, but came back to win the game (nobody knew the problems A&M would have holding leads at that point). From there, Oklahoma St.'s offense ran over the Big 12 and the defense stood tall enough to life the team to the number 2 ranking with three weeks to go in the season. Then, in a rare (first non-opening or Thanksgiving in Big 12 history) Friday night game, Oklahoma St. was shocked by lowly Iowa St. As it turned out, that loss cost Oklahoma St. a shot at the National Title when voters decided that Alabama's better loss and pedigree outweighed Oklahoma St.'s quality wins. The Cowboys did recover to steamroll age old foe Oklahoma to take the Big 12 though.

Road to the Fiesta Bowl – Stanford: Oh, but for Oregon. For the second season in a row, Andrew Luck and Stanford were incredible. For the second year in a row, they survived a close game against USC. For the second year in a row, they blew out nearly everyone else. For the second year in a row, Stanford got torched by Oregon. For the second year in a row, Stanford missed the Rose Bowl because of the loss to Oregon and had to use the Kansas St. rule to get into the BCS (for those that don't know, the Kansas St. rule states that a non-champion team from a BCS conference ranked in the top 4 goes to the BCS automatically).

Stanford offense vs Oklahoma St. defense: Advantage Oklahoma St.

Andrew Luck is really good. He also has a good running game. That said, he has thrown some awful interceptions this season. Oklahoma St. is bad at a lot things defensively. Forcing turnovers isn't one of them. Luck's susceptibility to INTs gives the advantage to an Oklahoma St. defense that knows it usually only needs a couple of stops to win the game.

Oklahoma St. offense vs Stanford defense: Advantage Oklahoma St.

The Oklahoma St. offense has all the traits of the Oregon offense that has been killing the Stanford defense for years: Spread running game, fast tempo, ability to throw deep, etc. It also has Justin Blackmon, a receiver better than any Stanford has faced in recent years. This bodes ill for the largely depth free Stanford defense.

Final Verdict: The disappointment factor. How will it rear its ugly head. Will Oklahoma St. be upset to not be playing for the whole ball of wax? Will Stanford be upset to not be playing in the earlier game? Whichever team manages those emotions more wins the game, independent of the advantages. Given Mike Gundy's unique coaching philosophies that have worked much of the season, I'll go with him and his team.

Oklahoma St. 38, Stanford 30

BCS Preview: Rose Bowl

Matchup – Pac-12 Champion Oregon vs Big Ten Champion Wisconsin

Road to the Rose Bowl – Oregon: After playing for the National Title and being beaten by Auburn on the final play, hopes were high for Oregon again. National Title hopes were dashed early though as the Ducks were steamrolled by LSU at Jerry World in Dallas to open the season. From there, it was what has become the annual procession through conference play for Oregon with one speed bump this season, a home loss to probation saddled USC in November. Despite that, Oregon smoked Stanford for the second straight season and has lost just two Pac-10/12 games over the last three seasons (at Stanford in 2009 and USC in 2011). The Rose Bowl berth was clinched by whipping poor UCLA at home in the Pac-12 Championship Game, completing an 11-2 season.

Road to the Rose Bowl – Wisconsin: When Russell Wilson transferred into the program from NC State and became eligible immediately, the defending Big Ten Champion Badgers suddenly were looked at as national contenders as nearly everyone of consequence on the roster returned from last season's 11-2 team. Then Wilson played and played well and the hyperbole got out of hand as Wisconsin smoked loads of overmatched opponents at home culminating in a demolition of Nebraska in early October. Then came the road where the Wisconsin pass defense crumbled late allowing Michigan St. and Ohio St. to steal late wins, first on a Hail Mary and second on a desperation heave with under a minute to play. After the losses, Wisconsin scuffled but didn't stumble, ultimately getting its mojo back by obliterating Penn St. in a de facto division title game and outlasting Michigan St. in another shootout in the Big Ten Title Game.

Oregon offense vs Wisconsin defense: Advantage Oregon

The Oregon offense is one of the best in college football. The Wisconsin defense is average, especially away from home. Even with the extra time to prepare (the main kryptonite for the Oregon offense going back to 2009, Boise St., Ohio St., Auburn and LSU all had extra time either in a bowl game or the beginning of the season), Wisconsin is unlikely to slow the Oregon offense much. It lacks the overall personnel needed to do so.

Wisconsin offense vs Oregon defense: Advantage Wisconsin

The Wisconsin offense is also one of the best in the sport. It pounds between the tackles and uses Wilson to throw play action deep balls with great efficiency. Against Oregon, this approach has worked twice this season to great effect. LSU pounded the Oregon defense into submission in the Ducks first loss and USC hit the play action deep passes with Matt Barkley to win at Oregon. Considering Wisconsin uses both of those traits very well, it could be a long day for the Oregon defense.

Final Verdict: Oregon will win the game. There are just more ways for the Ducks to do it on offense and, despite Wisconsin's great offense, I don't think anyone (me included) has enough faith to believe it can score 40 points in this game.

Oregon 43, Wisconsin 35

Beef O Brady's Bowl St. Petersburg Preview

Matchup: FIU vs Marshall. The only claim to fame for either team is they beat Louisville. Of course, the fact that Louisville lost to these dregs was used as material to skewer the entire Big East for then allowing Louisville to get so close to the BCS.

Matchup Pedigree: Miniscule. Marshall left its pedigree and tradition behind in the MAC when it left for Conference USA. FIU is a nice story, but 10 years ago it didn't have football and less than five years ago it was winless.

Locale: Miserable. Tropicana Field is a dump of a baseball stadium. It's even worse as a football stadium. This is actually a complement considering the press box flooded during the 1999 Final Four and the place hasn't been improved since then.

Entertainment Value: A bit. T.Y. Hilton of Florida International is the kind of quick, fast, undersized guy that will make NFL special teams coaches cringe. That said, he is the only value (and his performance against Louisville back in September is one of the best of the season).

Corporate Nonsense: LOL. Beef O Brady's. I actually know what Beef O Brady's is, but I'm not telling because the thought that this business is sponsoring a bowl game makes me laugh. In addition, the Beef O Brady's Bowl sounds even worse than the old WeedEater Bowl (I know, Independence...).

Bowl Pedigree: Zero. If we started the process of killing off bowl games, this would be the first to go. And it should be. I can't pile on this game enough or come up with more ways to insult it without resorting to sophomoric insults using colorful language that we avoid on this blog.

Game Prediction: Who cares? T.Y. Hilton scores a TD or 2.

FIU 27, Marshall 21

Should you watch: Never. Avoid this game like the plague. Annually. Watching would be bad for your health. And in the event you have tickets, sell them. Who wants to go to Florida to watch bad football being played in the worst dome ever constructed. Then again, good luck selling them. You'll need it.

LSU-Alabama week – The weaknesses of Alabama and LSU

Thus far this season, Alabama and LSU have shown very few weaknesses. There is a reason these teams are ranked 1 and 2. But neither team is entirely without flaws. Especially given the wrong matchup, these teams are fallible and this game could be the wrong matchup for either team.

Alabama's big flaw – No deep threat

The last few seasons, Alabama had Julio Jones to go deep and take the pressure off the running game. Thus far this season, there has been nobody in that role. It was hoped before the season that Marquis Maze would step into that role, but he has been more of a possession receiver and he has the 12.4 YPC average to prove it instead of the 14.5 average that Julio Jones put up last season.

On its own, Maze becoming more of a possession receiver than a deep threat is not a problem. Some of the best teams both in the NFL and college have had a possession guy as a top receiver. I recall the Dallas Cowboy teams of the early 90s having Michael Irvin as a possession guy (though he could go deep when needed) and Alvin Harper as the deep threat on the other side. The problem for Alabama is the lack of the deep threat. Other than Maze (who did finally get a big play against Tennessee), the longest receptions are by running backs.

The problem is that Alabama could get away with no deep threat against everyone they faced. Only the Penn St. defense possessed the tools needed to slow the Alabama running game down and that defense was worn down because its offense lacked the tools needed to move the ball against Alabama (or really anyone else, can anyone explain how that team is 8-1 while we're at it here?). Given a good offense that could at least get a few first downs, Penn St.'s defense might have been even better than the 4.98 YPP they gave up to Alabama and, playing at home, might have had the chance to steal a victory at the end of the game. Had Alabama had a deep threat, Penn St. wouldn't have been able to stack the box the way they did to slow Trent Richardson and Eddy Lacy down as much as they did and the Alabama offense would have rolled.

Against LSU, Alabama will face a similar challenge to the one they faced against Penn St. The LSU defense will at least slow down if not outright stop the Alabama running game. That puts the onus on Alabama to find some plays down the field that haven't really been there this season to open the defense up. In addition, the LSU offense will likely move the ball a little bit (or at least more than Penn St. did), meaning a fresher defense to combat whatever Alabama throws at them.

The big question for Alabama then, is can they hit a true deep ball or two to keep the LSU defense loose.

LSU's big flaw – The secondary, great though it is, is not infallible and can be had deep

Just as it was for Alabama, the biggest test for LSU's biggest weakness was a road non-conference game. In this case it was the road test in Morgantown against West Virginia. Yes, I know LSU won the game by a large margin, but not until the Mountaineers scared LSU with a couple of passing driven touchdown drives in the 3^rd quarter to close a blowout game to a 27-21 margin.

So what happened in Morgantown other than a pass happy offense and pass happy quarterback getting hot? For one thing, West Virginia found some holes in the LSU defense after halftime. If West Virginia could make some adjustments to find some holes in the LSU pass defense, rest assured Nick Saban likely can find them too and despite what the passing stats show thus far this season, Saban has better personnel to take advantage of any holes in the LSU pass defense. What resulted was a series of long completions culminating in a 72 pass play to Tavon Austin that helped get the game to 27-21 before the backbreaking kickoff return touchdown. In the first half, West Virginia had two completions for 20 yards or more resulting in 7 points. In the first three series of the 3^rd quarter, West Virginia had three such plays on drives that covered 215 yards and resulted in two touchdowns and a punt after generating four first downs.

In addition, Florida actually managed to hit a deep ball on the LSU defense with Jacoby Brisset in the game. Given how bad Brisset and Jeff Driskel and the rest of Florida's offense looked without John Brantley in the 2^nd half against Alabama and against the clearly inferior Auburn defense, this is a potential red flag. While it hasn't happened much, LSU's pass defense can clearly be had, especially if the quarterback is given time to throw.

Alabama's offensive line should be able to get AJ McCarron time to throw. If they do, it comes down to the only semi-weakness on the Alabama team against the only semi-weakness on the LSU team. Can Alabama hit the deep ball or will the LSU defense continue to force turnovers? The answer to that question likely decides the game Saturday night.

LSU-Alabama week - The SEC's Forgotten Big Game

LSU-Alabama is going to be huge. Nobody doubts that. There are other games with varying degrees of national relevance that others will be paying attention to, especially in the Big 12 (Oklahoma St.-Kansas St. and Oklahoma-Texas A&M). Yet most have, at least for now, forgotten about another game between top 10 teams that are at least on the fringe of the National Championship race.

SEC fans likely know that I am talking about the Arkansas-South Carolina game this Saturday, set to kickoff at the unfortunate time of 7:15 ET (why couldn't we get some schedule rejiggering from ESPN to fix this?). That is all of 45 minutes before the Game of the Century for this season kicks off. Too bad for those teams. Their showdown is likely to go all but unwatched, especially with Oklahoma St.-Kansas St. and Notre Dame (for all their faults as a program they are still a good draw on tv) on in the same timeslot.

Other than the obvious, why does nobody care about this game, especially considering it could decide the SEC East winner?

LSU and Alabama are perceived to be so far above everyone else that one of them losing to another SEC team is considered inconceivable – What that really means is even though this game matches the 7^th and 9^th ranked teams in the country, nobody really thinks these has a chance against their conference overlords. In Arkansas' case, they were already blown out at Alabama and will likely suffer the same fate against LSU and really there has been no evidence to contradict that belief in regards to the LSU game. As for South Carolina, they are riddled with problems at quarterback and running back and they lost at home to Auburn. Despite the high ranking, there is no way anyone believes this South Carolina team, even with its great defense, is going to score enough to beat Alabama or LSU if they reach Atlanta.

Arkansas and South Carolina both look overrated, especially in recent games – Other than smoking Auburn, Arkansas has done little to justify its high ranking other than not lose. They should have lost to both Texas A&M and Vanderbilt. They also nearly lost to Ole Miss. This is hardly the stuff of a top ten team. As for South Carolina, the offensive struggle against Tennessee was brutally ugly and the loss to Auburn wasn't too long ago. Remember that since the South Carolina-Auburn game, Auburn has been destroyed by both Arkansas and LSU and played in one of the worst major SEC games of the season against Florida. Each week that goes by, that loss seems to become more of a boat anchor on the Gamecocks resume as Auburn obviously isn't great.

There is a lack of star power on both rosters right now – Let's face it, star power sells matchups, especially in games below the top game in a given week. Because of Andrew Luck, people have cared about Stanford even when playing such middling competition as Washington and Duke. On the Arkansas roster, Tyler Wilson has been good, but hasn't really become that kind of 'IT' guy and Knile Davis injury robbed the Razorbacks of that possibility at running back. As for South Carolina, the Marcus Lattimore injury crushed their star power and, as good and hyped as Melvin Ingram and Jadaveon Clowney have been, they haven't really become stars. With no real superstars, there is no compelling reason on a players level to watch this game.

The rest of the SEC behind the top two really isn't very good at all – Let's face the facts. This year's SEC with Alabama and LSU at the top looks a lot like the 2008-9 SEC with Alabama and Florida well out in front of everyone else and little elite depth in the league behind them. That Auburn is still ranked somehow is proof of this (and the difficulty of the Tigers schedule so far) because Auburn most certainly does not pass the eye test as a top 25 team this season. Other than Auburn, and the teams in this weekend's big games, only Georgia is ranked and that could even be considered dubious given the lack of quality wins the Bulldogs have banked (Florida and Mississippi St. are the best ones). What this really means is that LSU and Alabama have elevated the league this season and they have elevated it to the point that everyone else benefits in the rankings, even when they lose to those team. That has led to overrated teams. When those overrated teams play each other, nobody really cares, even if those teams are ranked highly. Hence we have our top 10 showdown this week, that might as well not be taking place.

So should we really care about this game? Only in the context of the SEC East race. The division championship still means something and even if South Carolina is way overrated at number 9, especially without Lattimore, they still have a chance to win the division. That likely only happens if they win this week, making the game meaningful. As for Arkansas, they sit in limbo, headed to the Cotton Bowl to play Texas in all likelihood with not much else they can do other than surprise LSU and steal a BCS berth for a second consecutive season (good luck with that Hogs). So, for all of that, this game needs to be watched. I recommend getting the second tv out or set your espn3 feeds to this game. It is nowhere near the best game of the week and it really isn't of the stature a top 10 game normally is, but it still is a big game with major implications, especially in the SEC race.

LSU-Alabama week - LSU's future as an elite college football team

November 16, 1991 – Miami 17, Florida St. 16

November 13, 1993 – Notre Dame 31, Florida St. 24

November 30, 1996 – Florida St. 24, Florida 21

November 18, 2006 – Ohio St. 42, Michigan 39

Those are the last four November meetings between numbers 1 and 2. All among the greatest games in college football history. All with incredibly high stakes (though only Miami would actually manage to win the National Title among the winners while two losers would of these games would rebound to win). This is the expectation that LSU and Alabama are stepping into. Anything less than a classic is a disappointment. That is the subtext for the next number 1 vs number 2 November game. Luckily for us, it takes place this Saturday.

So with that as the background, what is really at stake here?

Skipping the obvious conference and national implications, LSU's status as a true national powerhouse is what's on the line here. I went to Auburn, but grew up and live in Pac-12 country. I can say that despite LSU's status in SEC land, out here, they are viewed as the team who's turn it is to be a prolonged contender from the Tennessee, Auburn, Georgia, LSU crew. Despite two national championships, LSU is still grouped with those schools on a program level (not on a this season level where they are obviously accepted given their status as the top ranked team after starting 3rd), not Alabama or Florida and not Michigan, USC, Notre Dame, Ohio St., Nebraska, Oklahoma or Texas. This game is LSU's chance to be accepted at that higher level of the sport.

So why doesn't LSU have that kind of status given that Florida, Miami and Florida St. have all made the jump to that status in recent college football history? Part of it stems from the lack of a truly dominant National Championship season, much like the one LSU is currently authoring. The 2003 championship came with a lost to a Ron Zook coached Florida team and controversy when the top ranked team in the human polls was left out of the championship game. The result was a split national championship. (I view that whole thing as a disservice to LSU, who didn't get their rightful shot at the number 1 team. The rest of that is a discussion for another day.) The 2007 team managed to win the national championship, but only as a two-loss team. Many believe that LSU was the best team that season and deserved its championship, but it wasn't the kind of dominant season along the lines of Miami's championship teams, Florida St.'s 1999 team or Florida's best teams that battled Florida St. year after year while dominating the SEC. Winning Saturday and finishing the season off with an undefeated National Championship would go a long way to truly establishing the LSU program with the elites of the sport, not just as a program having a long period of success a couple of levels above normal (like Tennessee in the 1990s).

The other reason for LSU's lack of standing among the very top programs is a lack of games like the ones listed at the top of this page. Only the 2007 win against Florida comes even close, but that Florida team had been beaten the week before by Auburn. Imagine if LSU lost to Auburn two weeks ago. What would we be writing about this game? That would be exactly what we were writing going into the 2007 LSU-Florida game. Even though we got a classic, Florida having a loss already took some level of shine off the game. Other than that game, we have a string of controversies and close calls in less than big games despite the prolonged stretch of winning. We have mind numbing defeats that never should have happened like the 2006 loss to Auburn and the 2005 loss to Tennessee. We have the quirky Les Miles wins like the 2010 win over Tennessee and the 2007 last second pass to beat Auburn. We don't have a game at the level of those previous 1 vs 2 games to cement LSU in the top level of the sport.

Another question about LSU's status? Where is the classic win or moment that pushes LSU into the top level of the sport? The only one that comes to mind is the Billy Cannon punt return. For USC, there are numerous wins over Notre Dame and UCLA and plays like the Anthony Davis kickoff return, the OJ Simpson run and the Bush Push. For Alabama, there's the goal line stand against Penn St. and the George Teague strip of the Miami player in the Sugar Bowl. For Michigan, there's the Charles Woodson and Desmond Howard punt returns against Ohio St. (no Woodson didn't deserve the Heisman over Peyton Manning but that was a heck of a play). For others, there have been games above plays. Think Catholics vs Convicts. The 2006 Ohio St.-Michigan game referenced above. The Choke at the Doak. In the Miami-Florida St. series alone, there are the Wide Right and Wide Left kicks. LSU has nothing of this sort to push it into the national conscientiousness. What are you going to do LSU?

So LSU, it's right there in front of you. Win this week, and it is the biggest win in the history of your program. This game is your chance. Do you want to be seen like Alabama, Michigan, USC, Texas, Oklahoma and the rest of the elite? Or are you just another flash playing above historical level for a prolonged period like 1990s Tennessee, 1980s Auburn or early Mark Richt Georgia?

It's all in front of you Tigers.

Just win the game.

BCS Championship Game Preview and Pick

Position by Position Breakdown

Quarterback: Obviously, Heisman winner Cam Newton has the advantage here, the question is how much. Darron Thomas of Oregon is a good quarterback, but he certainly is not great as of now. He has done what is necessary for his team and has obliterated a few teams on the schedule (USC and UCLA). If the Thomas who played those games games shows up, the quarterback battle will be close and Oregon wins going away in the second half as they will have a halftime lead before the second half deluge. If the Thomas of the Cal game shows up, Newton has a huge advantage and Oregon won't come close. In that game, the pressure from the Cal defensive line selling out to stop the run and blitzing got to Thomas and he couldn't take advantage of what was an average secondary. The Ducks won 15-13. If the normal Thomas shows, he will throw for about 200 yards and two touchdowns, maybe one interception and there will be running lanes open for LaMichael James. The Ducks will score their 40 and it will be up to the defense. I hope I don't have to break down Newton here as there has been much written about him. If we have a situation like the Colt McCoy injury from last season, I have a lot more faith in the Tiger backups than the Oregon guys (mostly because Oregon backup Nate Costa is injured and not playing).

Edge: Auburn, solidly

Running Back: Oregon's running backs are quick and can hit for big plays at any time. Note I said backs there. LaMichael James is obviously the headliner and the biggest threat as the Heisman runner up, but Kenjon Barner is also a threat to score any time he touches the ball and, while not a powerful as James, he probably has a quicker initial burst. Combined with the running ability of Darron Thomas from the quarterback spot, the guys handling the ball in the running game for Oregon are stellar.

For Auburn, the running backs are the unheralded guys on this team as they take a backseat to Newton. Big mistake and if Oregon overlooks them, they will pay dearly. Michael Dyer is a tough, powerful runner and Onterio McCalebb is the type of smaller speed burner that resides in Oregon's backfield.

Edge: Oregon, slightly

Wide Receivers: Oregon has the best individual receiver in this game with Jeff Maehl who individually destroyed USC earlier this season. Other than him, they have a solid collection of unknown athletes. At Auburn, there are no receivers on the level of Maehl, but all of the contributors are better than any other Oregon receivers. Terrell Zachery and Darvin Adams in particular are really good players who can burn the Ducks secondary if they sell out to hard to stop Newton and the running game.

Edge: Auburn, slightly

Offensive Line: Oregon's line has been opening ten mile wide holes in the second half of games all season mostly because of its warp speed tempo and ability to take advantage of tired defenses. That said, the first half against other decent defensive teams has been a struggle. Only 13 points against Tennessee, struggled for a quarter and a half against Arizona St., and no points in the first quarter against Washington or Cal. This is because the line doesn't open the holes needed early in games before the defense gets tired At Auburn, they have road graders that are great run blockers, but the pass protection is average at best. Many times this season, the offensive line has been bailed out by Newton's ability in pass protection and his scrambles have also enhanced the rushing numbers quite a bit. Even with that, there have been big holes for Newton, Dyer and McCalebb all season long.

Edge: Auburn, solidly

Defensive Line: Nick Fairley is the best defensive player in this game on either team by a wide margin. In addition, the Tigers have three other experienced seniors on the line and a strong rotation that has clamped down in the second half all season long. At Oregon, the defensive line is good led by Kenny Rowe on the outside, but he might have no answer for Newton considering Newton is bigger than Rowe is. The lack of bulk on the Oregon defensive line might me an issue in this game.

Edge: Auburn, huge

Linebackers: Josh Bynes and Craig Stevens are really good linebackers who fit the Auburn system that has largely been in place since early in the Tommy Tuberville era. They are sure tackling fast undersized guys who might have been safeties at other schools. Beyond them, there is little depth though and they aren't as good as Oregon star linebackers Casey Mathews and Spencer Paysinger who are both probable NFL players and possibly stars at the next level.

Edge: Oregon, solidly

Secondary: The less said about the Auburn secondary, the better. This unit is the worst individual unit of any team to ever reach a BCS Championship Game. There are times I feel like four warm bodies from the stands might be better than the Tiger secondary. At least all, including the corners, are sure tacklers that are helpful in the running game. The Oregon safeties aren't great, but corner backs Talmedge Jackson and Cliff Harris are among the best pairs of corners Auburn has seen all season.

Edge: Oregon, gigantic

Punter: Jackson Rice of Oregon has been good in limited duty. At Auburn, there has also been limited duty and Ryan Shoemaker briefly lost the job before regaining it. He has not followed his strong season a year ago with another, but he gives up few returns, an important stat considering Cliff Harris of Oregon leads the nation in punt return average.

Edge: Even

Kicker: Rob Beard hasn't been tested at Oregon. Who knows how he will react to a pressure kick. That won't be the case with Wes Byrum of Auburn who beat Kentucky on the last play and was a finalist for the Groza award as best placekicker in 2009. the only problem with Byrum is a lack of range as he struggles beyond 40 yards and is worth a try from 50 or beyond only at the end of a half when it won't change field position.

Edge: Auburn, solidly

Return game: The aforementioned Harris is the best in college football on punt returns and he and Barner are an above average pair on kickoff returns. At Auburn, the punt return game has been an adventure for years now. Nobody knows if the punt will ever be caught and even then there are no big plays. In the kick return game, Demond Washington and McCalebb are among the best in all of college football (ask Ole Miss who kicked to both of them and got shredded by both of them).

Edge: Oregon, solidly because Harris is so good

Intangibles: The Oregon tempo is the ultimate intangible in this game and if the Ducks can impose their will, the Newton advantage will likely be neutralized.

Edge: Oregon

Final Pick: Long layoffs tend to affect the passing game more than anything else because timing gets disrupted. Considering that Oregon's route to victory is attacking the weak Auburn secondary to open running lanes through the Auburn defensive line, a lack of timing early while Newton gets things going will cause Oregon's doom. The Ducks will make a run at it in the end, but it won't be enough.

Auburn 45, Oregon 35

Returning to the scene of the crime

Tomorrow, UCLA returns to Austin, Texas for the first time since one of the most infamous games in college football history, the Rout 66 beating.

The scene then: UCLA was entering the game at Texas a heavy underdog against the defending Big 12 Champion Longhorns who had defeated Nebraska in the Big 12 Title game the year before and started off with a quick 2-0 start and a ranking of 11 in the AP Poll. UCLA was 0-2 after losing its opening games to a Washington St. team that was lightly regarded at the time but ended up winning the Pac-10 and to Peyton Manning led Tennessee.

What occurred was one of the most awe-inspiring beatings I have ever seen any of. I remember having a soccer game that day and getting home after I played to turn the game on thinking UCLA was going to be getting killed. Instead, the Bruins were up 31-0 at that point on the way to a 38-0 halftime lead. The carnage was incredible. Texas turned the ball over eight times in the game and the offensive line acted more like turnstiles than blockers as UCLA continually came right up the middle and destroyed pretty much every play. The field position was so good that UCLA scored 66 points without even reaching 400 yards of total offense. Heck, the backup quarterback was so beaten down after the game he quit and became a male model.

The next week, Texas dropped all the way out of the top 25 and the young team was crushed, headed to a 4-7 season and the beginning of the Mack Brown era the next season. UCLA entered the rankings at number 24, the only time I can ever recall a 1-2 team being ranked, particularly a 1-2 team that wasn't ranked in the preseason..

This season, the teams oddly enter in similar states though there is no way the result will be the same. UCLA is 1-2 and lightly regarded with losses to Kansas St. in an early road game and Stanford in an early Pac-10 game. They are huge underdogs. Too bad for them that Texas fans want their team to right a wrong done to them many years before.