Position by Position Breakdown
Quarterback: Obviously, Heisman winner Cam Newton has the advantage here, the question is how much. Darron Thomas of Oregon is a good quarterback, but he certainly is not great as of now. He has done what is necessary for his team and has obliterated a few teams on the schedule (USC and UCLA). If the Thomas who played those games games shows up, the quarterback battle will be close and Oregon wins going away in the second half as they will have a halftime lead before the second half deluge. If the Thomas of the Cal game shows up, Newton has a huge advantage and Oregon won't come close. In that game, the pressure from the Cal defensive line selling out to stop the run and blitzing got to Thomas and he couldn't take advantage of what was an average secondary. The Ducks won 15-13. If the normal Thomas shows, he will throw for about 200 yards and two touchdowns, maybe one interception and there will be running lanes open for LaMichael James. The Ducks will score their 40 and it will be up to the defense. I hope I don't have to break down Newton here as there has been much written about him. If we have a situation like the Colt McCoy injury from last season, I have a lot more faith in the Tiger backups than the Oregon guys (mostly because Oregon backup Nate Costa is injured and not playing).
Edge: Auburn, solidly
Running Back: Oregon's running backs are quick and can hit for big plays at any time. Note I said backs there. LaMichael James is obviously the headliner and the biggest threat as the Heisman runner up, but Kenjon Barner is also a threat to score any time he touches the ball and, while not a powerful as James, he probably has a quicker initial burst. Combined with the running ability of Darron Thomas from the quarterback spot, the guys handling the ball in the running game for Oregon are stellar.
For Auburn, the running backs are the unheralded guys on this team as they take a backseat to Newton. Big mistake and if Oregon overlooks them, they will pay dearly. Michael Dyer is a tough, powerful runner and Onterio McCalebb is the type of smaller speed burner that resides in Oregon's backfield.
Edge: Oregon, slightly
Wide Receivers: Oregon has the best individual receiver in this game with Jeff Maehl who individually destroyed USC earlier this season. Other than him, they have a solid collection of unknown athletes. At Auburn, there are no receivers on the level of Maehl, but all of the contributors are better than any other Oregon receivers. Terrell Zachery and Darvin Adams in particular are really good players who can burn the Ducks secondary if they sell out to hard to stop Newton and the running game.
Edge: Auburn, slightly
Offensive Line: Oregon's line has been opening ten mile wide holes in the second half of games all season mostly because of its warp speed tempo and ability to take advantage of tired defenses. That said, the first half against other decent defensive teams has been a struggle. Only 13 points against Tennessee, struggled for a quarter and a half against Arizona St., and no points in the first quarter against Washington or Cal. This is because the line doesn't open the holes needed early in games before the defense gets tired At Auburn, they have road graders that are great run blockers, but the pass protection is average at best. Many times this season, the offensive line has been bailed out by Newton's ability in pass protection and his scrambles have also enhanced the rushing numbers quite a bit. Even with that, there have been big holes for Newton, Dyer and McCalebb all season long.
Edge: Auburn, solidly
Defensive Line: Nick Fairley is the best defensive player in this game on either team by a wide margin. In addition, the Tigers have three other experienced seniors on the line and a strong rotation that has clamped down in the second half all season long. At Oregon, the defensive line is good led by Kenny Rowe on the outside, but he might have no answer for Newton considering Newton is bigger than Rowe is. The lack of bulk on the Oregon defensive line might me an issue in this game.
Edge: Auburn, huge
Linebackers: Josh Bynes and Craig Stevens are really good linebackers who fit the Auburn system that has largely been in place since early in the Tommy Tuberville era. They are sure tackling fast undersized guys who might have been safeties at other schools. Beyond them, there is little depth though and they aren't as good as Oregon star linebackers Casey Mathews and Spencer Paysinger who are both probable NFL players and possibly stars at the next level.
Edge: Oregon, solidly
Secondary: The less said about the Auburn secondary, the better. This unit is the worst individual unit of any team to ever reach a BCS Championship Game. There are times I feel like four warm bodies from the stands might be better than the Tiger secondary. At least all, including the corners, are sure tacklers that are helpful in the running game. The Oregon safeties aren't great, but corner backs Talmedge Jackson and Cliff Harris are among the best pairs of corners Auburn has seen all season.
Edge: Oregon, gigantic
Punter: Jackson Rice of Oregon has been good in limited duty. At Auburn, there has also been limited duty and Ryan Shoemaker briefly lost the job before regaining it. He has not followed his strong season a year ago with another, but he gives up few returns, an important stat considering Cliff Harris of Oregon leads the nation in punt return average.
Edge: Even
Kicker: Rob Beard hasn't been tested at Oregon. Who knows how he will react to a pressure kick. That won't be the case with Wes Byrum of Auburn who beat Kentucky on the last play and was a finalist for the Groza award as best placekicker in 2009. the only problem with Byrum is a lack of range as he struggles beyond 40 yards and is worth a try from 50 or beyond only at the end of a half when it won't change field position.
Edge: Auburn, solidly
Return game: The aforementioned Harris is the best in college football on punt returns and he and Barner are an above average pair on kickoff returns. At Auburn, the punt return game has been an adventure for years now. Nobody knows if the punt will ever be caught and even then there are no big plays. In the kick return game, Demond Washington and McCalebb are among the best in all of college football (ask Ole Miss who kicked to both of them and got shredded by both of them).
Edge: Oregon, solidly because Harris is so good
Intangibles: The Oregon tempo is the ultimate intangible in this game and if the Ducks can impose their will, the Newton advantage will likely be neutralized.
Edge: Oregon
Final Pick: Long layoffs tend to affect the passing game more than anything else because timing gets disrupted. Considering that Oregon's route to victory is attacking the weak Auburn secondary to open running lanes through the Auburn defensive line, a lack of timing early while Newton gets things going will cause Oregon's doom. The Ducks will make a run at it in the end, but it won't be enough.
Auburn 45, Oregon 35
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