BYU without Davies – What does it mean?

BYU has tossed starting power forward and best post player Brandon Davies from the team for the remainder of the season for an honor code violation (too bad more schools aren't like this, college sports wouldn't be the moral cesspool that it is if schools would put ideals above winning more often but that is a topic for another post, probably after basketball season ends). What does his departure mean for the Cougars?

BYU still deserves a number one seed if they can win out

The Cougars have earned a top five ranking and should keep that ranking until beaten. If they can win the remaining regular season games and the Mountain West tournament, the team should still get a top seed in the West region. In the past, the committee has penalized teams for injuries and some will say that BYU isn't as good without Davies. That said, if they don't lose in five games between now and Selection Sunday, there is no proof of that. If BYU wins and you believe they should be denied the top seed because of Davies's absence, then I want all of Duke's results from the early season with Kyrie Irving thrown out. Do that and the Blue Devils really aren't any better than a 3 seed profile wise in the terrible ACC.

There will be no national title for BYU

Without Davies, BYU just won't be able to defend the post well enough to win a national championship. Even with Davies, there were potential matchup issues against big teams (see the loss to UCLA when Fredette had an off game from long range and the Bruin starting front line combined for 55 points and 20 rebounds) and now those are compounded. In addition to the loss of Davies, forward Chris Collinsworth, the most likely replacement for Davies in the lineup is out for the season injured. Teams like Texas, Ohio St., and Kansas now become huge problems later in the tournament and a potential second round or Sweet 16 matchup with Kansas St. would be almost certain death at this point in time.

Jimmer Fredette now has to shoulder even more of the load

Fredette is going to win the national player of the year. There is no disputing that even with a few other viable choices out there. That said, his high assist totals are likely to drop as Davies was the most frequent finisher on Fredette's assists. The Cougars also can no longer afford off games from their star player.

To conclude this, BYU is obviously not the same team without Davies. It won't matter until the Mountain West Conference final. I expect a cakewalk tonight against fading New Mexico and the same this weekend Wyoming and even if those games aren't easy, they still will be wins just on Fredette's back alone. It will be much the same the first two games of the Mountain West Tournament. Then the true test comes against either San Diego St. (who suddenly matches up much better with Davies as the Aztecs fit the size mismatch profile laid out earlier now) or UNLV on the road (never an easy game to win for anyone though it is doable for elite teams). I think the Cougars will win their way to the final and then lose at that point dropping them to a number two seed. Then its matchups. A 7-10 seed with size could cause some issues, but the bracket could break their way allowing for a run to the elite 8 behind Fredette. Once there, a matchup with Duke or Pittsburgh could still see the Cougars to the Final Four, but likely not any further.