Vuelta Stage 16 - Rodriguez extends his lead further

Today's Stage: Circle of Death – Part 3. By far the hardest stage of these three days in the mountains and quite possibly the 'Queen Stage' (that would be hardest stage) of the race (Stage 20 up the Bola del Mundo is also under consideration for 'Queen Stage')

Who won today's stage? Dario Cataldo (OPQS) and Thomas De Gendt (Vacansoleil) battled together for the stage win as the only breakaway survivors. Cataldo was able to drop De Gendt on Cuitu Negru and then survive one of the slowest stage finishes ever. Both Cataldo and De Gendt nearly fell off their bikes in exhaustion just at the sight of the finish line and the final three km took them over 15 minutes to complete.

What matters in the GC race? Overall leader Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) took the sprint for third over Alberto Contador (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff), taking the time bonues and extending his lead again, now up to 28 seconds. Just behind them was Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) who confirmed his podium place in part because Chris Froome (Team Sky) finally exploded, losing over two minutes to the leaders.

What matters in the other competitions?

Green Jersey (Points) – More points for Rodriguez. His lead is now 52 over 4^th place John Degenkolb (Argos-Shimano), the main contender considering the other two in between are Valverde and Contador. Rodriguez can seal the jersey with a win on Wednesday or a win atop the Bola del Mundo on Saturday. Even without those, Degenkolb likely needs to win all three remaining possible sprint stages on Thursday, Friday and Sunday to take the jersey. Looks unlikely.

Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains, it's blue in Spain, not red) – Simon Clarke (Orica-GreenEdge) is now holding on for dear life as the GC men continue to take points on all the uphill and summit finishes. In addition, stage runner De Gendt has appeared in 3^rd place and De Gendt has been very strong in week three of the last two Grand Tours he has entered. I suspect he will be in the breakaway looking for the King of the Mountains win on the Bola del Mundo stage with its three category one climbs before the final run up the huge climb at the end.

White Jersey (Allround, instead of young rider, calculated by adding the rankings in GC, Points and KoM, lowest score wins) – Same as it ever was. Even Froome cracking today changed nothing. Rodriguez still leads (as expected). Valverde is second and Contador is third. Froome is fourth but falling further behind every day as he is in the GC battle.

Team Classification (top 3 times by team on each stage) – Movistar has really extended this out the last couple of days. With three riders in the top 11 on the stage, they are now over 12 minutes ahead of second place Katusha.

Biggest surprise: Froome exploded as bad as he did. We have seen the signs that this was coming, but it looked like Froome was doing a good job of limiting his losses to a few seconds. Today, that was just not the case. As soon as the leaders went, Froome was with the second tier GC group and was beaten by many of them including Gesink, Ten Dam, Anton and Talansky.

Biggest disappointment: With the exception of Movistar domestique Nairo Quintana, nobody has stayed with the leader the last three days. Just once in this race, I would like to see the likes of Gesink and Talansky attacking with the leaders. Of course that would means risking positions if the attack failed so those riders are content to grind away.

Other items of note: Another two men dropped out of the race today. Pablo Lechuga (Andalucia) and Cameron Meyer (Orica-GreenEdge) were the two and there are now 17 men out of the race. As a whole, this has been a low-attrition race. The eventual toll of the stage 6 crash in the Tour de France alone was 12, when including those involved who dropped out on later stages.

What is coming tomorrow? Rest day tomorrow and then a long but not very steep ascent up a category 2 climb to finish.

Tomorrow's Prediction: Breakaway. Someone from both Caja Rural and Andalucia will be in it along with those in the mid-teens region on GC looking to sneak away and move into the top 10.

Vuelta a Espana (aka kill the peloton with climbs) Preview

It's Vuelta time

After the highs of the Tour de France and the Olympics and a long season already, the cycling peloton (minus a few top riders that either are done for the year or with US leanings) heads to Spain for the Vuelta a Espana. Normally, the Vuelta is the red-headed stepchild of the three Grand Tours, drawing a weaker field reserved for Spaniards who aren't going to ever win the Tour de France, riders that crashed out of the Tour de France and those that targeted the Giro d'Italia and need some late season racing. This year though, a combination of factors has seemingly elevated the Vuelta above it's normal perch.

The field: Last year, JJ Cobo (now Movistar, then the now defunct Geox-TMC) shocked the cycling world, coming from nowhere to beat out of nowhere Chris Froome (Team Sky) and a recovering from crash Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) on a course that didn't suit Wiggins nearly like the recent Tour de France course that Wiggins won on did. This year, Cobo is about the 6^th choice in the field. While part of that is Cobo (the guy has done basically nothing all season), part of that is the rest of the field. It is one of the strongest Vuelta fields I have ever seen.

Starting at the top, we have Alberto Contador (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff). Contador hasn't raced all season because of his suspension, but he is still the best Grand Tour rider in the peloton and is also by far the most explosive attacker in the mountains. He enters as the favorite despite little racing up to this point (he did finish 4^th overall at the recent Eneco Tour in his first race back after the suspension).

Also, Froome is back and while he was beaten by Cobo last year, that was by a combination of time bonuses and Froome waiting for Wiggins on the Angliru climb allowing Cobo to get away. Beyond that, Froome is much more of a favorite than Cobo in part because he followed up his Vuelta breakthrough last year with an equally impressive result in the Tour de France (2^nd to his teammate Wiggins). The big question about Froome is how he will recover from his Tour de France effort and the Olympic effort that followed (Froome raced for Great Britain in the road race and then won the Bronze Medal in the time trial).

Beyond the two favorites and the defending champion Cobo, the two podium finishers from the Giro are also here. Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) was likely salivating at the thought of this course, until Contador's suspension came down and allowed him to race here. Rodriguez does everything Contador does, just not as well. If Contador is off form, Rodriguez could find himself in a similar position to the Giro, battling for the race lead into the final days. The big difference here is that the time trial that cost Rodriguez the win at the Giro is much earlier, allowing him to retake time in the mountains that remain after that.

Giro 3^rd place Thomas de Gendt (Vacansoleil) is also here for his first meaningful riding post-Giro (he got married on the day of the first stage of the Tour de France). In his last two Grand Tours, de Gendt has been incredibly strong in the final week and especially the final days of the race (at the 2011 Tour, he was five on both the Alpe d'Huez stage and the time trial and then won the Passo del Stevio stage at the Giro and finished in the top five of the time trial there as well). If he can keep from losing time early in the race (no easy task, especially here), de Gendt could be a threat for the podium again in the final week.

Also, the crashed and wrecked contingent of the Tour de France is stronger this season than in recent years. In particular, Rabobank's Dutch pair of Robert Gesink and Bauke Mollema are both here. Gesink has long been tapped for Grand Tour success because of his incredible climbing ability (which he used to win the Tour of California on the Mount Baldy stage in May), but he generally struggles to stay on his bike, crashing with regularity. His teammate Mollema was 4^th in this race last season but was caught along with Gesink and entire Garmin team in the stage 6 crash in the Tour de France. He will be looking to rebound and save a particularly disappointing season.

The route: The other thing that has upped the Vuelta's prestige this season is the route, especially after a couple of average bordering on dull and totally uninspired routes at the Giro and the Tour. (Seriously, the Giro, while great in the final week was dull as can be for the two weeks before that and the Tour de France was suffocated by the two long time trials without enough mountains close to the finish to dent the Team Sky train).

Here, there are mountains and summit finishes pretty much everywhere. Enough that I expect everyone in the peloton to crack at least once during the race. The key thing is to manage the race, not crack on a key stage, and limit the time losses when the inevitable crack comes.

The mountains start right off the bat with summit finishes in stages 3 and 4. After that there is a mix of sprints, uphill finishes and a time trial (along with a summit finish in Andorra on stage 8). Then the race gets insane. Stages 14-16 are all summit finishes with the stage 16 finale a monstrous climb to Cuitu Negru that includes ramps up to 23% in gradient. Still, that is not the climax. The climax comes on the second to last day when the Bola del Mundo makes its return after a one year absence on a stage with three category one climbs and a category 2 climb before the peloton even reaches the foot of the fearsome Bola del Mundo. Needless to say, with 10 summit finishes in the race, this is a spectacle for the climbers (and one that likely will kill the legs of any serious contenders here before the World Championships and the Giro di Lombardia for those that will target those races).

Final pick: Contador. He will struggle early in the race, likely ceding time on stage 3 or stage 4 before getting his legs under himself and smashing the field on stage 14-16 and possibly again at Bola del Mundo.

Hesjedal confirms his victory - Giro d'Italia Final Stage

Today's stage: The time trial to solve it all in Milan.

Final Race Results – Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin) finished 6^th place on the stage and took 47 seconds from Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) to win the Giro d'Italia on the final day. His win is his first Grand Tour victory (previous best 6^th in 2010 Tour de France), the first for Canada (previous best: Steve Bauer, 4^th in 1988 Tour de France) and the first for the Garmin team (previous best 4^th from Christian Vandevelde in 2008 Tour de France and Bradley Wiggins in 2009 Tour de France). It is also only the second time the pink jersey has changed hands on the final day (1984 previously when Francisco Moser overtook Laurent Fignon). Rodriguez, to his credit in defeat, finished 25^th on the stage in one of the better time trial performances of his career. In all likelihood, he will enter the August Vuelta a Espana as the second favorite behind the returning from suspension Alberto Contador (team undecided, likely Saxo Bank). Further behind, Thomas De Gendt (Vaconsoleil) finished 5^th on the stage and overtook Michele Scarponi (Lampre) for the 3^rd spot on the final podium. This completed the final podium with no Italians on it in their home Grand Tour for the first time since 1995 and only the 4^th time ever.

Who won today's stage? Still, it was a happy day for Italy. Former national time trial champion Marco Pinotti (BMC) won today's stage with a dominating performance.

What matters in the other competitions?

Red Jersey (Points) – Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) was unable to finish in the top 15, and for that matter was unable to beat Rodriguez in the time trial and therefore was unable to beat Rodriguez. This is the second Grand Tour in a row that Rodriguez has won this competition along with the Vuelta last year.

Blue Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Matteo Rabottini (Farnese Vini) only had to finish the time trial today to finish off his King of the Mountains classification victory. He did so and sealed the final blue jersey.

White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Rigoberto Uran (Team Sky) lost some time to teammate Sergio Henao, but it was nowhere near enough to lose this jersey in the end.

Biggest surprise: Rodriguez was as good as he was today. Rodriguez gave it a good go today. This was a far cry from the horrible performance in the 2010 Vuelta time trial when Rodriguez lost over 5 minutes to stage winner Peter Velits and lost 3'30”-4' to all of the other GC contenders. What an improvement even if it wasn't enough to take the top prize today.

Biggest disappointment: Where was Roman Krueziger (Astana) today? While he lost a bunch of time on that one awful day earlier in the race, he was thought to be among the better time trialers among the overall contenders. Today, he didn't bother to try, finishing 85^th on the stage. Part of that is there was no overall placing to protect and none to gain. He was sitting in a no man's land in the standings. Still, given that Krueziger is much better than Hesjedal in the time trial and Hesjeda finished 6^th, Krueziger might could have won this stage entirely had he tried.

Other items of note: There were two other short stage races finishing around Europe today. At the Ronde van Belgie (Tour of Belgium), Tony Martin (Omega Pharma-QuickStep) recovered from his injuries suffered when he was hit by a car in training in April and won the race overall. Andre Greipel (Lotto Belisol) earlier had won the first three stages... At the Bayern Rundfahrt, Michael Rogers (Team Sky) finished off an overall victory that included two stage wins. Also notable there was Alessandro Petacchi (Lampre) winning the other three stages that Rogers didn't win.

What is coming next for the peloton? Most of the top contenders at the Giro will take some time off before returning for the Vuelta a Espana in August. Others will join the rest rest of the peloton in preparation mode. The Tour de France starts in five weeks. In that time, most of the contenders will be racing in either the Criterium du Dauphine or Tour de Suisse. In addition, many countries have their national championships between now and the Tour de France with France, Belgium, UK, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands all racing four weeks from now. The United States is racing this weekend. David Zabriskie (Garmin) won his 7^th time trial championship yesterday and the national championship road race is tomorrow in Greenville, South Carolina. Blogwise, I will be updating weekly about cycling until the Tour de France begins on June 30, then it is back to daily coverage.

Giro d'Italia Power Poll – Final Stage Time Trial Preview

The Giro d'Italia is down to one day: a final day time trial to decide everything with the overall winner and the composition of the final podium still in doubt. Here is my predicted final top 10 (current position in parenthesis) along with my thoughts on the entire race for each.

1 Ryder Hesjedal (2), Garmin – Tomorrow is the biggest time trial of Hesjedal's life. He might never get another opportunity to win a Grand Tour. This is it. He is better than his rival Rodriguez in the discipline and he will need to be to make 31 seconds up over 31 km. As for the race as a whole, Hesjedal has ridden a smart race ever since the Team Time Trial put him in great position back on stage 4. His only two bobbles have been the day after his two big attacks putting him basically level with where he would have been had he not attacked. He is the big favorite to win the Giro tomorrow.

2 Joaquim Rodriguez (1), Katusha – JRod is not exaclty a specialist in the time trial. OK, he stinks. To win tomorrow he will need the time trial of his life and if he has an off day, De Gendt and Scarponi are in range of catching him. Even so, this has been a big move forward for Rodriguez after his implosions while leading in the last two Vuelta a Espana's. Speaking of the Vuelta, this year's course is heavy on mountains (quite possibly heavier than last year's Giro believe it or not) and therefore might be Rodriguez's best chance to win a Grand Tour if he loses tomorrow (that is assuming he can beat a pssobily still not on form Contador in the mountains).

3Thomas De Gendt (4), Vaconsoleil – Today was the biggest ride of De Gendt's life, racing into contention. He is likely too far back to catch Hesjedal even though he is the best time trialist among the contenders. If he recovers well and is on form, I think he has a good shot to win the stage and as long as he's not awful he should make up 27” needed to catch Scarponi. Not a bad race for a guy who was thought to maybe have a shot at a stage win in a breakaway.

4 Michele Scarponi (3), Lampre – The defending champion has not had a great race. Bad stage 1 time trial and bad team time trial really hurt and his attacks in the mountains have been largely unsuccessful. There is no way he beats Hesjedal or De Gendt in a time trial if either is even close to on form. Still, he will be no worse than fourth as there is no way anyone behind De Gendt possibly catches him with the time gaps that currently exist.

5 Ivan Basso (5), Liquigas – An ok time trialer, Basso pretty much sits in no man's land. Only Cunego is within a minute in either direction so it is difficult to see Basso gaining or losing a place in the standings. Still, this race has been a failure and marks the end of the line as a Grand Tour contender for the two-time Giro champion. In addition, Basso's tactics blew up his Liquigas team. The entire team has been burned out working for him. I suspect it might have been the same in 2010 when Basso last won the Giro except his main teammate was Vincenzo Nibali and Nibali has turned out to be pretty darn good since then (won Vuelta in 2010, 3^rd in Giro last year moved up to 2^nd when Contador was stripped, podium finishes in two monuments this year).

6 Rigerberto Uran (7), Team Sky – Good time trial skills should equal a chance to at least catch Cunego in the GC. I think he will do that and this race will be looked at very successfully by himself and his Team Sky managers.

7 Damiano Cunego (6), Lampre – I don't even know what to say here. Cunego is weak against the clock and is a tactical nightmare and wild card, but he gets results. Finished second today at Stelvio and is going to turn in another top 10 GT finish (to go with his fluky 2004 Giro win).

8 Sergio Henao (11), Team Sky – I have no idea how good or bad Henao is in the time trial, but he can't possibily be any worse at this level than Pozzovivo, Nieve or Gadret, his closest rivals. This was a good learning experience for Henao. I expect him to be back and contending for the podium in this race soon.

9 Mikel Nieve (9), Euskatel – Carrot Power. Nieve didn't get his stage win (though his team did get one this year) like he did last year, but this will have been a very successful race if he can stay in the top 10. With Gadret behind, it shouldn't be a problem, even if Nieve inherited his team's allergy to good time trials.

10 Dominico Pozzovivo (8), Colnago -Truly pathetic in the time trial, Pozzovivo is a climbers climber who can't even descend well. Given those limitations, it is surprising that he has done this well. I suspect he will remain in the top 10 only because 12^th place Dario Cataldo (Omega Pharma-QuickStep) is too far back to catch him and 10^th place John Gadret (Ag2r) is similarly awful in the time trial.

Giro D'Italia Stage 20 - De Gendt's ride for the ages caps best GT stage in years

Today's stage: Utter brutality. Mortirolo (one of the three most difficult climbs in Europe along with the Zoncolan and the Angliru) and then a summit finish atop the Passo Dello Stelvio (highest ever finish for a Grand Tour stage)

Who won today's stage? Thomas De Gendt (Vacansoleil) defied conventional wisdom and attacked on the upped slopes of the Mortirolo. The GC leaders never saw him again. At one point on the Stelvio, it looked like De Gendt had a shot at the race lead also, but he has settled into fourth place going into the time trial. The ride itself was one of the more incredible long distance attacks we have seen in recent years (rivaled only by Andy Schleck's attack on the Galibier stage in last year's Tour de France) and is now the biggest win of De Gendt's career, by far.

What matters in the GC race? A remaking and moving of the pieces entering the final stage time trial tomorrow. Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) still leads the race after a late attack dropped his rivals. He finished 4^th on the stage. Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin) is still second, but he now trails by 31 seconds. Michele Scarponi (Lampre) is 3^rd, 1'51” behind and De Gendt moved from 8^th to 4^th with his incredible ride, now 2'18” behind and with a chance at the podium tomorrow.

What matters in the other competitions?

Red Jersey (Points) – Oh what might have been for Mark Cavendish (Team Sky). He has lost the lead to Rodriguez by one point with only the time trial left. Had Cavendish won the sprint on Thursday, he would have this jersey locked down. Instead, he needs the best time trial of his life to score points tomorrow and retake the jersey on the final day. It looks unlikely though Rodrgiuez is also unlikely to score points tomorrow (and he really doesn't care either given that he is the overall leader).

Blue Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Matteo Rabottini (Farnese Vini) managed to get himself in the early breakaway and scored enough points on the early climbs to seal the final blue jersey. With Rabottini in the break, none of the other outside shots that were possibilities bothered to contest today.

White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Sergio Henao (Team Sky) played good teammate today. At one point, Hesjedal dropped all but a few riders. Henao had managed to stay with Hesjedal and could have continued on and possibly taken the jersey from his teammate Rigerberto Uran. Instead, Henao dropped back and helped pace Uran up the Stelvio to protect the higher overall position and leave the jersey in the hands of his teammate.

Biggest surprise: De Gendt attacked from so far away. The Mortirolo, fearsome though it is, was thought to not be decisive this year because of the 20 km flat run up to the Stelvio. Instead, it played the same role as the Passo Lavaze did yesterday. De Gendt sent a teammate up the road just a little bit and then attacked himself, like Roman Krueziger (Astana) did yesterday. Then De Gendt rode away with the race though he didn't fade as bad as Krueziger did yesterday. The tactics were solid and the ride was superb, helped a bit by. De Gendt is a most deserving winner, but the amount of his time gap was helped by...

Biggest disappointment: ...the GC staring match. In the valley between the Mortirolo and the Stelvio, the top six GC men (Rodriguez, Hesjedal, Scarponi, Basso, Uran and Pozzovivo) all stared at each other, nearly coming to a total stop as all refused to work, attempting to make Hesjedal and his Garmin team do the pacemaking. This continued all the way nearly to the top of the Stelvio. Had De Gendt not faded in the final two kilometers, he would be leading the GC right now because of this since he actually got a lead on the day of over five minutes and at one point was ahead of Hesjedal on Virtual GC (the overall standings if the stage was stopped on the spot). Then, after making Hesjedal do all the work, Scarponi and Rodriguez attacked (Basso, Pozzovivo and Uran get a pass as they were dropped by Hesjedal on the Stelvio before the attacks started). Considering De Gendt is as good a time trialer (maybe even better) as Hesjedal, Rodriguez and Scarponi stupidly nearly let another threat to the overall enter the picture. As it is, De Gendt is a threat to their podium places now.

Other items of note: Four riders including Robbie Hunter (Garmin) and stage 18 winner Andrea Guardini (Farnese Vini) were disqualified from the race today for holding onto cars... The question for Mark Cavendish now is, “Was it worth it?” We will see. Cavendish has difficulties (that's an understatement) in the mountains and suffered all week in an attempt to win the Red Jersey (and complete his collection of Grand Tour points jerseys having already won the Tour de France and Vuelta a Espana competitions). I suspect the answer won't come until the end of July. That would be the Olympic Road Race, being held on home roads in London and likely a sprint finish.

What is coming tomorrow? The final time trial for all the marbles. Hesjedal is most certainly the favorite as Rodriguez is notoriously bad in the time trial (remember that he lost four minutes in a stage 17 time trial while leading the 2010 Vuelta a Espana) while Hesjedal is good. Further down, De Gendt is excellent if Hesjedal has a bad day tomorrow and he is likely more of a threat than Scarponi is if we get further down the line. Extended preview of the time trial later today.