The Giro d'Italia is down to one day: a
final day time trial to decide everything with the overall winner and
the composition of the final podium still in doubt. Here is my
predicted final top 10 (current position in parenthesis) along with
my thoughts on the entire race for each.
1 Ryder Hesjedal (2), Garmin –
Tomorrow is the biggest time trial of Hesjedal's life. He might never
get another opportunity to win a Grand Tour. This is it. He is better
than his rival Rodriguez in the discipline and he will need to be to
make 31 seconds up over 31 km. As for the race as a whole, Hesjedal
has ridden a smart race ever since the Team Time Trial put him in
great position back on stage 4. His only two bobbles have been the
day after his two big attacks putting him basically level with where
he would have been had he not attacked. He is the big favorite to win
the Giro tomorrow.
2 Joaquim Rodriguez (1), Katusha –
JRod is not exaclty a specialist in the time trial. OK, he stinks. To
win tomorrow he will need the time trial of his life and if he has an
off day, De Gendt and Scarponi are in range of catching him. Even so,
this has been a big move forward for Rodriguez after his implosions
while leading in the last two Vuelta a Espana's. Speaking of the
Vuelta, this year's course is heavy on mountains (quite possibly
heavier than last year's Giro believe it or not) and therefore might
be Rodriguez's best chance to win a Grand Tour if he loses tomorrow
(that is assuming he can beat a pssobily still not on form Contador
in the mountains).
3Thomas De Gendt (4), Vaconsoleil –
Today was the biggest ride of De Gendt's life, racing into
contention. He is likely too far back to catch Hesjedal even though
he is the best time trialist among the contenders. If he recovers
well and is on form, I think he has a good shot to win the stage and
as long as he's not awful he should make up 27” needed to catch
Scarponi. Not a bad race for a guy who was thought to maybe have a
shot at a stage win in a breakaway.
4 Michele Scarponi (3), Lampre – The
defending champion has not had a great race. Bad stage 1 time trial
and bad team time trial really hurt and his attacks in the mountains
have been largely unsuccessful. There is no way he beats Hesjedal or
De Gendt in a time trial if either is even close to on form. Still,
he will be no worse than fourth as there is no way anyone behind De
Gendt possibly catches him with the time gaps that currently exist.
5 Ivan Basso (5), Liquigas – An ok
time trialer, Basso pretty much sits in no man's land. Only Cunego is
within a minute in either direction so it is difficult to see Basso
gaining or losing a place in the standings. Still, this race has been
a failure and marks the end of the line as a Grand Tour contender for
the two-time Giro champion. In addition, Basso's tactics blew up his
Liquigas team. The entire team has been burned out working for him. I
suspect it might have been the same in 2010 when Basso last won the
Giro except his main teammate was Vincenzo Nibali and Nibali has
turned out to be pretty darn good since then (won Vuelta in 2010, 3rd
in Giro last year moved up to 2nd when Contador was
stripped, podium finishes in two monuments this year).
6 Rigerberto Uran (7), Team Sky –
Good time trial skills should equal a chance to at least catch Cunego
in the GC. I think he will do that and this race will be looked at
very successfully by himself and his Team Sky managers.
7 Damiano Cunego (6), Lampre – I
don't even know what to say here. Cunego is weak against the clock
and is a tactical nightmare and wild card, but he gets results.
Finished second today at Stelvio and is going to turn in another top
10 GT finish (to go with his fluky 2004 Giro win).
8 Sergio Henao (11), Team Sky – I
have no idea how good or bad Henao is in the time trial, but he can't
possibily be any worse at this level than Pozzovivo, Nieve or Gadret,
his closest rivals. This was a good learning experience for Henao. I
expect him to be back and contending for the podium in this race
soon.
9 Mikel Nieve (9), Euskatel – Carrot
Power. Nieve didn't get his stage win (though his team did get one
this year) like he did last year, but this will have been a very
successful race if he can stay in the top 10. With Gadret behind, it
shouldn't be a problem, even if Nieve inherited his team's allergy to
good time trials.
10 Dominico Pozzovivo (8), Colnago
-Truly pathetic in the time trial, Pozzovivo is a climbers climber
who can't even descend well. Given those limitations, it is
surprising that he has done this well. I suspect he will remain in
the top 10 only because 12th place Dario Cataldo (Omega
Pharma-QuickStep) is too far back to catch him and 10th
place John Gadret (Ag2r) is similarly awful in the time trial.
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