Bowl Selection Review (Annual BCS Travesty Included with Admission)

BCS Matchups + First Thoughts

BCS Title Game – LSU vs Alabama

The expected title game. Over the next few weeks, the debate will rage (both here and elsewhere) about if this was really the correct matchup or not (regular readers here know I stand with the anti-rematch group). Nonetheless, the first game was a close game. I expect this to be close too. And also very low scoring. Long layoffs tend to favor the defenses as the offenses lose their timing. That prospect makes an even worse offensive game a possible, but it also brings a defensive touchdown into play that wasn't there in the first meeting. That is LSU's domain as I believe the Tigers will win again and win easily by a score of something like 17-7.

Rose Bowl – Oregon vs Wisconsin

The most correct matchup of all the games, this would have been the matchup 40 years ago just the same as today. I was talking with a friend at church earlier tonight about this game and we agreed that Oregon has more ways to win this game, especially with Wisconsin lacking defensive linemen like the ones from LSU, Auburn and Ohio St. that have killed the Ducks the last few seasons.

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma St. vs Stanford

The Title Game's loss is the Fiesta Bowl's gain as the Fiesta Bowl gets the best matchup of the bowl season with Andrew Luck and the Oklahoma St. offense set for a wild shootout. That said, the Oklahoma St. defense will win this game. With turnovers as Luck has been surprisingly susceptible to interceptions at some bad times in games this season.

Sugar Bowl – Michigan vs Virginia Tech

The Sugar Bowl went off the reservation with this pick and they are going to pay for it with a bad football game. Virginia Tech just isn't very good and the signs have been there all season despite a terrible schedule (remember that I picked Virginia Tech for the BCS Title Game in the preseason because of that schedule that, other than Clemson's surprise improvement, was every bit as bad as it appeared) that allowed the Hokies to rack up wins. Clemson destroyed them twice. Miami nearly came back from oblivion to take a 4^th quarter shootout in Blacksburg. North Carolina gave the Hokies a good run in Blacksburg as well. There were no games against teams that finished ranked except the Clemson games. This won't be the same. The Hokies will be tested and they will fail against Denard Robinson and Michigan's improved defense.

Orange Bowl – Clemson vs West Virginia

This bowl is actually quite happy, all things considered. Though this matchup is weaker than quite a few non-BCS games, it is an immense improvement over a week ago. A week ago, this bowl was looking at 7-5 Louisville against Virginia Tech for the 4^th time in six years. As for the game, Clemson is the balanced version of West Virginia with more skill position talent. The result will reflect that.

Who got screwed (BCS Title Version)? Oklahoma St.

Oklahoma St. should have been in the BCS Title Game. The reasons have been stated over and over all over the place (except for on ESPN where everyone is 'mysteriously' pro-rematch this season), so I won't get into it here and now because it will go on for quite some time. It is an argument for a full post.

Who got screwed (BCS Version)? Boise St. or Kansas St.

Looking at the rest of the BCS games, there are two teams that could make a decent BCS case for the Sugar Bowl spot opposite Michigan (let's be honest here about Michigan who went 10-2 and has a huge fanbase and tv cache. The Wolverines were all but conceded in at 10-2 weeks ago and I have no problem with it despite its slightly lower ranking). Boise St. is the highest ranked team other than SEC 3 Arkansas (who can't go) not in the BCS. There is a case to be made for them to be in the BCS, even with a loss (though I find Boise's overall resume lacking and not quite BCS worthy this season). I think Kansas St. should have gotten the call for this game. The Wildcats were 10-2 in the conference ranked as the best in the country by the computers (another reason Oklahoma St. should be in the championship game) and finished in the top 10. Also, its fans travel extremely well because any chance to get out of cold, snowy Kansas in December-January is one you take. I don't think Virginia Tech will be traveling all that well as a disappointed fanbase but that's just me.

Who got screwed (Rest of Bowls)?

Penn St. - The players weren't the ones that perpetrated the scandal. Sad for them that they fell all the way to the TicketCity Bowl. Just awful for a team (emphasis on team and not program) that deserved better (even if they got a better opponent than expected with Houston).

Alamo Bowl – Obviously, the Alamo Bowl didn't know USC was staring at 2 years bowlless when they signed to bring in the Pac-12's second pick, but that and the Pac-12 getting 2 in the BCS both years so far has killed this game. Last season, it was 7-5 Arizona (instead of bowl ineligible USC) coming in with a four game losing streak to be sacrificed to Oklahoma St. This season, its 7-5 Washington (instead of bowl ineligible USC) and its flammable pass defense to play against Robert Griffin III and the most prolific deep passing game in college football.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl – This bowl works on behalf of a good cause (much better than when it was the Diamond Walnuts Emerald Bowl), but they got stuck with the biggest turd of the bowl season, no question. UCLA and its 6-7 record with a waiver to even be allowed to play and no coach is going to be a big favorite in this game somehow. Of course that somehow is that the Bruins are playing Illinois, former home of Ron Zook and possessors of a six game losing streak. In addition to the horrible matchup, this bowl also got a horrible time slot this season. They are on New Year's Eve in the middle of the day at the same time as Georgia Tech vs Utah in the Sun Bowl and Cincinnati vs Vanderbilt in the Liberty Bowl. Either of those games is far more appetizing.

Who got a gift?

Cotton Bowl – Talk about a charmed existence. This game got Arkansas and Kansas St. in a game that is a better matchup than two of the BCS games. This the year after getting the kickoff of LSU's championship run. Things are starting to go really well for this game again after a long spell of dry years.

Southern Miss – Normally, the Conference USA champion gets a trip to Memphis for the Liberty Bowl. Because of some odd contractual shenanigans between the SEC, Big East and the bowl in Birmingham, Southern Miss gets a Hawaiian vacation instead. Believe me, Christmas Eve in Hawaii is a much better proposition than New Year's Eve in Memphis, and if you want to experience both, Memphis close enough to Southern Miss that the players can do that if they so choose (though I have no idea why unless Memphis is home).

ACC teams other than Clemson and Florida St. - Clemson earned its way into the BCS. Florida St. was locked into the Champs Sports Bowl against Notre Dame pretty much no matter what. Virginia Tech got a gift Sugar Bowl bid and everyone else benefits from moving up one slot in the pecking order. In particular, Virginia should be happy to be going to Atlanta and the Chick-fil-a Bowl to play Auburn instead of the Belk Bowl or the Music City Bowl.

New Year's Day Football Fans – The games are on January 2 this season (because the 1^st is on a Sunday), but they are the best set of New Year's games in a long time. In the morning, we get Penn St-Houston, Michigan St.-Georgia, Ohio St.-Florida and South Carolina-Nebraska. Then we get a traditional Rose Bowl with Wisconsin-Oregon. After that, we get the best matchup of the BCS with Stanford-Oklahoma St. I have nothing to complain about there. It will be a great day of football.