Nov 20, 2011

Week 13 BCS Breakdown

I have already poured over the standings (along with my team of super inteeligent monkeys and the extra voices in my head) to figure out everything anyone needs to know about the BCS this season. Here it is.

Standings (with projected bowl)
1 LSU (National Championship Game)
2 Alabama (National Championship Game)
3 Arkansas (Capital One Bowl)
4 Oklahoma St. (Cotton Bowl)
5 Virginia Tech (Orange Bowl)
6 Stanford (Fiesta Bowl)
7 Boise St. (Poinsettia Bowl)
8 Houston (Sugar Bowl)
9 Oklahoma (Fiesta Bowl)
10 Oregon (Rose Bowl)

Teams in National Title Race and what they need to reach the title game

LSU – Win remaining games.
Alabama – Win remaining games, Oklahoma St. loss wouldn't hurt but may not be necessary
Arkansas – Win out, either Alabama or Oklahoma St. (and possibly both) need to lose
Oklahoma St. - Beat Oklahoma, Arkansas must lose to LSU, Alabama might need to lose to Auburn. SEC Championship Game upset would be helpful.
Virginia Tech – Win out, get an Oklahoma St. loss and then hope there is extreme distaste for a rematch and Stanford doesn't win the Pac-12.
Stanford – Win out, probably need the conference title meaning an Oregon loss to Oregon St. and the entire Virginia Tech scenario.

BCS Bowl Projections + explanations

National Title Game – LSU vs Alabama
Nobody really wants a rematch, but there won't be another choice when Oklahoma St. loses to Oklahoma. Even if the pollsters move Stanford or Virginia Tech over Alabama, the margin won't be big and the computers will keep Alabama in the 2 slot.
Rose Bowl – Oregon vs Wisconsin
Oregon may have lost to USC, but the likelihood of them losing to Oregon St. or whoever comes out of the Pac-12 South at home is slim to none. As for Wisconsin, they are going to beat Penn St. at home and then get their revenge against Michigan St.
Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma vs Stanford
Oklahoma will beat Oklahoma St. to win the Big 12 and take an automatic berth to this game. With the first pick after National Title Game participants are replaced (Sugar picks first), the Fiesta will take Stanford with Michigan off the board.
Sugar Bowl – Michigan vs Houston
This bowl is in a bad spot. They will be unable to get an SEC team as a replacement like usual. Given that, they will take an excited Michigan fanbase and Houston because as bad as Houston might be in the eyes of the bowls, the Big East Champion is going to be far worse.
Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs West Virginia
Given the misery that this game goes through annually (deservingly I might add), this is about as good as could be hoped for with the matchup likely to be ACC-Big East again. At least it is a rivalry that hasn't been played in awhile.

Who gets snubbed in this scenario?

Arkansas at 10-2 is beaten by the 2-team rule
The Sugar Bowl can't get its desired SEC team
Boise St. will be ranked higher than many of the BCS participants
Oklahoma St. and Kansas St. will both finish 10-2 and get left out of BCS games
The Orange Bowl will have the ratings poison of ACC Champ against Big East Champ (again, this bowl will be by far the happiest of the bowls to be rid of AQ's)
The people who have to watch the Big East Champ in a BCS Game (though this happens in any scenario)

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