College Basketball season is officially underway with plenty to write about with upsets abounding and others items of craziness already.
The Pac-12 still stinks and looks headed for just 3 bids to the NCAA Tournament at most – Cal looks solid and Arizona looks good. The rest? Let's just forget we brought that up. UCLA is abominable with a backcourt that seems unable to win in the Big West and big man chemistry issues. Still the Bruins might win the LA city championship with USC looking awful, having lost to San Diego St. and Nebraska. Also, Washington St. (an understandable loss to Gonzaga), Arizona St. (unforgivable loss to Pepperdine), Oregon (forgivable loss to Vanderbilt), Utah (awe inspiringly bad 21 point loss to Boise St.), and Colorado (loss to Wichita St.) already are carrying losses. It just doesn't look good, especially when the best you can say about the non Arizona and Cal teams is that they haven't screwed up yet. Someone will come out of the morass to be the 3rd tournament team, but a 4th looks like a stretch right now.
UCLA is headed to a rare double coach firing – Those of you who read the football side of this blog know I think Rick Neuheisel is gone at UCLA football coach. With the start UCLA has had and now a trip to Maui, UCLA basketball coach Ben Howland looks headed for much the same fate. When the pundits are stating the best case scenario as a 2-5 start at UCLA when the team had a losing season just two years ago, the coach might be screwed.
The SEC looks much improved – I know South Carolina and LSU are already carrying bad losses, but Mississippi St. has already cashed in a good win to offset its bad loss by beating Texas A&M and the rest of the SEC West hasn't dropped the kind of idiotic games so far that they have been collectively losing for the last 5 years.
The Mountain West is going to be just fine without BYU – Yes, losing BYU hurts, but the rest of the league (other than San Diego St.) looks improved over last year and sending Utah to the Pac-12 is addition by subtraction, at least when it comes to the all important RPI numbers.
The non-BCS football leagues other than the Mountain West and WCC all look weak so far – The Atlantic 10 will have its standard bearers and get its usual 2-3 bids (Temple, Xavier and ???), but it is not really strong as a whole. The Missouri Valley is still rebuilding after the perfect storm of a few years ago and having to take other mid-major leagues best shots. Conference USA is stronger than it has been of late, but that's not saying much as it hasn't really been good since the Big East exodus. And WAC standard bearer Utah St. is already carrying a loss to Weber St.
Speaking of the WCC, 3-bid league? - Unlike the last time this league was a 3-bid league, the WCC might truly earn it (last time San Diego won the conference tournament on its home floor and Gonzaga and St. Mary's got in anyway). With BYU in the league and Gonzaga and St. Mary's still humming along, there are bid available here, especially if Pepperdine and San Diego continue their surprising starts (both undefeated).
Middle Tennessee and Long Beach St. are at-large contenders – Long Beach is no surprise. They have a coach who has done it before (Dan Monson, formerly of Gonzaga and Minnesota) and a core of returning seniors. The win over Pittsburgh on Wednesday was huge, but it was not the usual upset game. The 49ers just whipped the Pitt on their home floor. As for Middle Tennessee St., their Southern California road trip went better than could possibly have been imagined, winning at UCLA and Loyola Marymount. With games remaining against Ole Miss and Vanderbilt and the Sun Belt looking a little better than its been since the fall of Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee is a contender.
The CAA is a one-bid league again – The start of the season in the CAA, mid-major home of recent Final Four teams George Mason and VCU has had an awful start to the year. The league as a whole is under .500 and favorites George Mason (FIU), VCU (Seton Hall) and Old Dominion (Northern Iowa) all have losses to teams that are either not in the at-large conversation or will be fellow bubble contenders.
Butler will struggle to make the tournament – The Bulldogs may have gone to the last two national title games, but they are still a mid-major. The leap hasn't quite been made yet to become Gonzaga East and this is the year that will show it. Remember that it was a struggle to get in last season and Butler was given a gift of an 8 seed (should have been a 10-11) that they cashed in with one huge upset over Pitt and an open bracket. This year's team isn't as good and the team will have issues all season, especially scoring.
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