Sep 14, 2011

Picks of Week 3's Biggest College Football Games

Results
Last Week: SU: 7-3 ATS: 6-3-1
Season: SU: 13-7 ATS: 11-8-1

Game of the Week (Year?) - Florida St. vs Oklahoma (-3.5) – Oklahoma's offense looked good in week 1 against Tulsa, but I'm not sold on the running game or the defense right now. I'm also not sold that they can just roll over Florida St. like they did last season. The Seminoles will put up a whole lot more resistance as they stamp themselves national contenders for the first time in a long time with defense.
Florida St. 21, Oklahoma 17

Florida (-9.5) vs Tennessee – After South Carolina basically stunk the field up against Georgia but won because of special teams and defensive touchdowns, I think the winner here is the real favorite in the SEC East. That winner will be Tennessee, even on the road. Florida has looked very good thus far against awful competition (they likely have one of the worst 2-0 with no FCS win resumes possible). Meanwhile, Tennessee has been tested and the defense looked good after the first 10 minutes agaisnt Cincinnati. Combine that with what appears to be the best passing game in the SEC and you get a surprise win.
Tennessee 27, Florida 21

Mississippi St. vs LSU (-4) – Both teams are likely crying at the sight of this game on the schedule. LSU because they get to play as a road team on short rest (historically not something you want to be doing) and Mississippi St. because their reward for playing the defending national champs to the wire is this (you wonder who in Starkville pissed of the SEC office for this until you realize it's probably punishment for leaking the Cam Newton thing last year). All that out of the way, LSU really didn't play much last week and the defense will do what is necessary. This game has the potential to look a lot like Auburn's road Thursday win over Mississippi St. early last season.
LSU 17, Mississippi St. 14

Miami (-2.5) vs Ohio St. in the Can You Top This Scandal Bowl – Miami stinks. Period. Their quarterbacks are interception machines and the defense only has slightly above average talent instead of great talent right now. Only because of the Ohio St. suspensions do the Hurricanes have a chance, but I think the close call against Toledo will wake the Buckeyes up unless there are much bigger issues than anyone imagined.
Ohio St. 31, Miami 20

Clemson (-3.5) vs Auburn – The rematch of the single hardest hitting game of last season sadly is in the morning breakfast timeslot (Auburn has now been here 3 times in 3 weeks). Auburn has somehow managed to win the last two weeks when they should be 0-2. Clemson has done the same, but Auburn's opponents (Utah St. and Mississippi St.) are much better than Clemson's (Troy and Wofford). Even with all of that, it will be close, but Clemson always implodes in the 4th quarter of close games and Auburn always wins.
Auburn 35, Clemson 31

Nebraska (-17) vs Washington – Washington's offense got better without Jake Locker, but there is nothing they will be doing to shut down Nebraska. Expect this to look a lot more like last September's awful beatdown than the Holiday Bowl upset.
Nebraska 42, Washington 28

Illinois (pick) vs Arizona St. - The Sun Devils beat Missouri in a game of mind numbing stupidity. Their reward: take a national ranking into a game coached by Ron Zook.This should be interesting. Of course, even Arizona St's stupidity won't lose them this game. Reasons why: they are more talented and Illinois hasn't lost yet and everyone in the Big Ten except Nebraska and Wisconsin is losing at least one dumb game this season.
Arizona St. 34, Illinois 21

USC (-17) vs Syracuse – If USC plays up to its talent level, they will win going away. Of course they don''t seem capable of it. Syracuse will keep this close despite possessing a FCS level offense because USC can't get out of its own way once it gets the lead. Expect something a lot like the last two weeks.
USC 20, Syracuse 14

UCLA vs Texas (-4) – UCLA has looked awful for the better part of the last two seasons. Texas has looked awful since UCLA smashed them last season (in one of two game where the Bruins didn't look awful a year ago). Given that and the fact that I don't believe either team is any good at all, go with history. Never mess with a streak. UCLA has smashed Texas 3 times in a row (1997, 1998, 2010).
UCLA 20, Texas 17

Maryland (-1) vs West Virginia – Mountaineers have struggled in the first half, but they should know what to do against Randy Edsall. For years, Mountaineer teams coached by different men have mostly made skid marks of Edsall coached Connecticut teams. This will be no different as Maryland continues to struggle to adapt to its new coach more than West Virginia does.
West Virginia 41, Maryland 27

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