Preseason Top 25 – Ranked by how good the teams are now

I could really care less about the projection at this point. It's all about how good I believe the teams are going into the season. Yesterday, I projected Virginia Tech into the national title game because of an easy schedule. They are not a top two team right now and they won't start ranked there. Also, teams that I have projected to much lower bowl games will start higher. I think LSU is really, really good. I think they will wilt against the toughest schedule in all of college football (at least if you think 10-2 is wilting).

1 LSU – Tigers have a great defensive line, but neutral site game against Oregon and road games against Alabama and West Virginia in addition to the rest of the SEC schedule will keep the Tigers from BCS glory.

2 Alabama – An easy early schedule (made easier by the injury issues in the Arkansas backfield) will allow whoever the new quarterback to work into the system. There is an upset out there somewhere, but the Tide will still solidly win the SEC West as long as the QB situation is settled by the LSU game.

3 Oklahoma – Sooners are really good, but their road issues over the last few seasons have been atrocious and Florida St. is a really hard early road game.

4 Wisconsin – Russell Wilson elevates this team a lot. With the Wisconsin running game, Wilson will be able to play as the mistake-free efficient quarterback he was as a freshman, not the risk taking interception prone man he was last year at NC State.

5 Boise St. - Kellen Moore is back and so is nearly everyone else outside of the receivers. That means another possible run at BCS glory and another year of hatred from most of the country (in particular SEC fans who will throw Georgia under the bus if the Bulldogs lose the opener to Boise).

6 Nebraska – The Cornhuskers will have their usual dominant defense. They start here now, but I don't believe in QB Taylor Martinez as an elite quarterback and I think his limits limit the ceiling of Nebraska. The Cornhuskers will slide as other teams improve throughout the season.

7 Oregon – Nobody in the Pac-12 has the king of defensive line that has now consistently killed Oregon the last couple of seasons, but opening opponent LSU does. Along with a rebuilding defense that leaves the Ducks susceptible to a shootout loss like the 2009 loss to Stanford, repeating last season's national title game trip looks way too steep.

8 Florida St. - Seminoles very well might be back, but I think they are still one step away. They are close though and beating Oklahoma at home in week 3 will show that.

9 Missouri – Tigers are loaded. Only an elite quarterback stands between them and a run at the national title. Too bad Blaine Gabbert left early for first round NFL draft riches.

10 Texas A&M – Don't let the current SEC controversy distract. The Aggies are a legit contender this season with a really strong offense. If they can get a pass rush without standout Von Miller, they could beat anyone on the schedule.

11 Notre Dame – The Irish finished very strongly last season and elite programs rebuilding under second year coaches have been very strong over the last 10-15 years, This is the test if Notre Dame is still elite as a program and I think they are.

12 South Carolina – I hesitate to put the Gamecocks this high given that they finished as an average team in the SEC despite the division title last season (middle of the pack in both total offense and defense) and still lost five games. I'm not sure if last season was the peak or if there are higher highs coming this season.

13 Virginia Tech – Hokies will be go, but we may not know how good until the ACC Championship or possibly even the bowl game. There is nobody elite on the schedule this season and the Hokies, while playing in the stronger ACC division, have drawn a year when everyone else in that division is down.

14 Michigan St. - Another team I shutter to put this high, especially after the way they won a lot of close games last season and got smashed by both Alabama and Iowa. Sparty's presence this high is more an indictment of everyone else than support of Michigan St.

15 Georgia – Returns a lot of players off a team that by most statistical metrics (total offense, scoring offense, turnover margins, yards per play margin) should have been a 9 or 10 win team. The guys over at Teamspeedkills (an SEC blog you should be reading if you are a college football fan) are still befuddled by how Georgia ended up 6-7 last season.

16 West Virginia – New coach Dana Holgerson should have a strong offense (he always has in his coaching career) and the defense will still be good under returning coordinator Jeff Casteel even with some losses. The problem here is likely to be continuity after Bill Stewart was forced out between spring and fall practice for attempting to undermine future successor and offensive coordinator Holgerson.

17 Mississippi St. - The Bulldogs return 10 starters from one of the best offenses in school history. That will carry them to another strong season even as the defense reloads a bit without coordinator Manny Diaz (now at Texas).

18 Stanford – Andrew Luck is back, but I don't believe in the Cardinal other than him. This team has lacked elite talent other than him for the most part and though it is better than even last season, there still is not enough elite talent to compete for a national title under a new coach. Also, depth has been a questionmark here even during the rise the last two years. I expect that problem to finally hurt this year.

19 USC – Matt Barkley will be better in year 3 and the defense can't be much worse. Once again, the question is motivation with no postseason to play for.

20 Arkansas – I have the advantage of doing this after the Knile Davis injury, unlike the coaches poll. Davis rushed for 1300 yards last season and his absence along with backup Broderick Green (injured in the spring) means a lot rides on new quarterback Tyler Wilson. Wilson looked good for two quarters in relief at Auburn last season, but was intercepted twice late to seal the defeat. How he plays will determine everything now.

21 Ohio St. - Who knows what we are going to get out of this team this season. If there is competant quarterback play, everything is still in place for at least a Big Ten Title run. At the same time, with Jim Tressell out the door, a total meltdown is possible, especially if the Buckeyes lose to Miami early on without their suspended players.

22 TCU – The Horned Frogs lost a lot, especially on defense from last season's perfect team. In addition, they lose the quarterback too. There is plenty of talent here, but its young. That said, if TCU beats Baylor week one, they should be undefeated when they play BYU at the end of October.

23 Oklahoma St. - I don't believe in this team without Dana Holgorsen there and Mike Gundy trying to be a CEO. The defense has never been any good under Gundy and its not a good sign when the quarterback is teaching to offensive coordinator the offense. There is talent here, but lots of red flags.

24 Pittsburgh – Todd Graham has been very good at Tulsa and he is a better choice than previous choice Mike Haywood (hired and then fired after two weeks for domestic violence arrest). I think the defense will be very good and the offense will at least be competant.

25 BYU – Jake Heaps really looked good against the admittedly weaker back end of the schedule last season. I think he will keep that level of play up as a sophomore and he will need to with road games at Ole Miss and Texas to start the season.

Others unranked and why

Auburn – Lost way too many players off last season's team to be ranked now. If they survive the early part of the year, talent could take over and get this team to 8 wins.

Texas – Something still doesn't seem right about the offense. Garrett Gilbert can't play, nobody else can overtake them and they are hoping for a freshman running back to be Adrian Peterson or Marcus Lattimore. I expect 7-5 with another miserable offense.

Penn St. - Another ranked on brand name, the Nittany Lions have epic quarterback issues that will submarine the whole system. 8-4 at best.

Florida – Another name brand program with major quarterback issues. They also have major issues at wide receiver and no running back suited to the system new offensive coordinator Charlie Weis would like to run. This won't be pretty, again (expect against Georgia because Florida always looks like world beaters against Georgia).

Arizona St. - A team getting a lot of preseason hype, but injuries and the fact that this team finished 6-6 with no bowl game last season tells me they are unworthy of being ranked without some prior track record of success (or at least less boneheadedness from the quarterbacks and from linebacker Vontaze Burfict).