Ever since the Cam Newton story broke last season, college football has been inundated with off the field issues. In fact, it has been the only thing discussed. Just since then the list of items is just huge:
The Newton situation overshadows the second half of the season.
The Ohio St. suspension situation overshadows the bowl season along with Cecil Newton's attendance at the National Championship Game.
Nobody really talks about spring practice because the Jim Tressel revelations come out and the fallout begins that would claim his job at Ohio St.
Willie Lyles lands Oregon under investigation and possible LSU and Cal too.
The West Virginia coach in waiting situation explodes with the end of Bill Stewart's tenure, a few months earlier than planned.
Georgia Tech is stripped of its 2009 ACC Title over $312 and a lack of cooperation.
North Carolina gets its notice of infractions from the NCAA and then fires Butch Davis two days after ACC Media Days.
Texas A&M tries to get itself out of the Big 12 and into the SEC in a drama likely to continue through the season.
At least last season, we were able to focus on the on field issues for most of the first half (given that realignment was mostly taken care of in the summer and North Carolina's suspension issues were stuck in the ACC media backwater). Hopefully this will be the case this season, but I doubt it. Some of the reasons why I doubt it:
The Texas A&M/SEC thing is going to go for awhile. Even if that part of it is resolved, who will be the 14th member of the SEC and will there be divisional realignment in the league. Will the addition of that 14th member cause other conferences beyond the Big 12 to shift and move?
Charles Robinson has some sort of Earth-shattering investigative report on a top level program coming. Robinson has become the Angel of Death as far as corruption and not following NCAA rules goes. If he is snooping around campus, bad things are about to happen. Remember that it was Robinson who broke the Reggie Bush story and the Connecticut basketball story that lead to Jim Calhoun being suspended three games next season and he has said this is the biggest thing he has ever reported on.
The anti-NCAA pro-playoff media will not allow the off field issues to die. In the eyes of many in the media, keeping the attention on everything wrong with the game will bring the change they really want: a playoff. While that may be true with the realignment stories, it most certainly is not on the corruptions and investigation stories.
So what of the season?
We already know the pecking order for the national championship game. If Oklahoma and the SEC Champ are undefeated, everyone else is playing for peanuts. Period, end of story. The only team that could possibly sneak in before one of those two teams is Oregon and that would take a win over and SEC West champ LSU (opening game) that loses the SEC title game to an undefeated team from the East. The odds of this happening are slim and none and it still might not be enough.
The pecking order after the top two goes Oregon, Florida St., Stanford, Notre Dame, undefeated Big 12 champ other than Oklahoma, undefeated Big Ten champ, Virginia Tech, undefeated West Virginia/Pittsburgh, undefeated Pac-12 champ other than Stanford or Oregon, undefeated ACC champ other than Florida St. or Virginia Tech, undefeated Boise St./TCU, one loss SEC champ, undefeated BYU, undefeated Big East champ other than West Virginia/Pittsburgh, CHAOS. Somehow, I don't think chaos will be the answer this season.
What team will be the big surprise team in the BCS (think Stanford last season and Kansas in 2007)?
Look to the Big 12. Missouri lost their starting quarterback and a first round pick at defensive end. Pretty much everyone else (including literally everyone else on offense) is back. Even competent quarterback play could get this team to 9-3 or possibly 10-2. Given good quarterback play, only the late September road game at Oklahoma looks unwinnable. I expect the Tigers to push for 11-1 and a slot opposite the SEC runner up in the Sugar Bowl.
Who will be the new overlord of the Big 10?
As a whole, all the major conferences except the SEC have been defined by a major overlord recently. USC and then Oregon in the Pac 10, Oklahoma and Texas in the Big 12, Virginia Tech in the ACC and Ohio St. in the Big Ten. With Ohio St. seemingly falling off its perch a little, the door is open for somebody else and the door is also open to keep Ohio St. out of the BCS for the first time since 2004 (The Buckeyes were at-large choices and co-league champs in both of Penn St.'s recent championship seasons). For me, Michigan is ultimately going to be the new overlord. It will just take a couple more years. I expect Nebraska, Wisconsin and yes, Ohio St. to be the primary contenders this season. No matter the winner though, this is a league in transition, even if Nebraska wasn't entering the league.
What team is best of the non-BCS?
All the speculation centers on Boise St. and TCU. Both start highly ranked, but I wonder if that isn't name recognition, especially in the case of TCU, a team that loses a ton of players off last season's roster. Quietly, newly independent BYU could make a big push. For one thing, the schedule, while not overly difficult, is heavy on underachieving name brand teams. Ole Miss, Texas, Utah, Oregon St and TCU all sound much better than they appear to be this season. In fact, only TCU appears in my rankings that will be out tomorrow while Ole Miss, Texas, Utah and Oregon St. are all in varying degrees of transition. Realistically for BYU, win all the toss ups and an undefeated season is there for the taking. Go undefeated against that schedule, go to the BCS. Outside of the usual western suspects (who lost one from their ranks with Utah moving to the Pac 12), Houston should bounce back with Case Keenum back at quarterback for one last go and Southern Miss should have the offense to do great things, if the defense can stop anyone at all.
Who are I picking to go to the national title game?
Virginia Tech and one-loss Alabama. The Hokies play an embarrassing schedule this season (some of that is on the ACC for being weak). There are no ranked teams on it until the possible ACC Championship game. I expect an undefeated season there. On the other side, Alabama goes 12-1 and wins the SEC, going on to the title game. The SEC's success wins all tiebreakers at this point and Alabama will get the nod over one-loss Wisconsin from the Big 10. What of Oklahoma? The Sooners will lose early to Florida St. and drop one in conference play. 10-2 and Big 12 champs, winning the tiebreaker over 11-1 Missouri by virtue of head to head victory.. In the Pac 12, Stanford will take a small step back to 10-2 and Oregon will lose to LSU to start the year and drop one more along the way. The biggest threat to one-loss Alabama will come from Notre Dame, who will carry an undefeated record into Thanksgiving weekend and then be beaten on the road by Stanford, knocking the Irish from the title race. The BCS games will end up looking like this:
Title Game: Virginia Tech vs Alabama
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs Notre Dame
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs Missouri
Orange Bowl: Florida St. vs Boise St.
Wow Joe, Notre Dame? Really? I'll buy into almost everything else, but I think there are better odds of the Aggie's staying in the Big 12 (er 10...whatever) than the Irish have of crashing the BCS party. Nothing against Kelly, but he's got one more year of work before the Irish are relevant again.
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