College Basketball Daily – Feb 9 – Who's in the Tourney

Since the College Basketball Daily was off for a week due to real life getting in the way, I am going to take the time right now to reassess the NCAA picture both as a way of refreshing myself and those football fans just now tuning in to college basketball in time for tonight's North Carolina-Duke game.

Tournament Locks – There is no conceivable way any of these teams are missing the tournament barring catastrophic injury and total collapse therefore invalidating all previous work this season.

ACC – Duke, North Carolina

Duke of course is a mortal lock and the Blue Devils are in the hunt for a number one seed that they will likely get (undeservingly unless they run the table). North Carolina just re-entered the rankings, but they are playing good basketball right now, are ranked in the top 20 of the RPI and have two top-50 wins in a weak ACC on a weak bubble. Ask yourself this, do you see a 23-9, 12-4 team from the ACC missing an expanded field tournament. Heck, do you see a 21-11, 10-6 team from the ACC missing since that is North Carolina's worst case scenario.

Big East – Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Syracuse, Villanova, Louisville

Yes, that's seven locks from this league. That's what happens when the RPI loves you and you have a bunch of teams without a ton of losses. Yes, each of the lock teams listed above will take more losses. It might affect seeding some, but all are making the tournament without question. Even if there is a collapse in there for one of these teams (most likely Louisville or UConn), the weak bubble will see any of them through no problem.

Big 12 – Kansas, Texas

Only two since Missouri can't win on the road, Texas A&M is slumping and everyone else has a losing conference record except Baylor who has the weakest non-conference performance among the contenders in this league. This league will get four of five bids, but I don't have the slightest idea which teams those will be. If I had to guess, Missouri will get in, Texas A&M will turn it around and Oklahoma St. will jump Baylor and Kansas St. in the pecking order for five from this league.

Big Ten – Ohio St., Wisconsin, Purdue

No other locks as everybody else has already hit the trap door towards collapse. As bad as the bubble is, I can fairly easily envision a scenario where only the three locks get in from this league. For that to happen, the upper middle just needs to keep losing games to Michigan, Iowa and Indiana (and maybe Michigan St. too since Sparty's resume looks about as bad as any preseason top two team has ever looked at this point).

Pac 10 – Arizona

The Wildcats are going to win the Pac 10 going away considering there are only three road games left. Even if they get swept in Los Angeles, it's not going to matter. Combine that with a top 20 RPI and the lack of quality wins will affect Arizona's seeding, but not their status.

SEC – Florida, Kentucky

Florida is solid at this point and does anyone think a Kentucky on the bubble (if that's where they end up) is getting left out and not sent to the first four to pump up ticket sales. As long as that is acknowledged, both of these teams are solid. Conference leader Alabama is not because of their status in the SEC West (all losses are potential death and wins are generally meaningless except in the fact that a resume killing loss was avoided). Even 12-4 if it is the wrong 12-4 will not do the trick for the Crimson Tide and I can see a scenario where 13-3 won't even cut it.

Mountain West – San Diego St., BYU

These two are mortal locks with their records and are both likely to receive protected (that is top four) seeds to keep them close to home. There are other bubble teams in this league, but the real intrigue is for the next BYU-San Diego St. game where both teams will likely still be in the top 10 even if there is a loss out there for one of them along the way (most likely San Diego St. at UNLV on Saturday)

Atlantic 10 – Xavier

Last night's win over Georgia gives the Musketeers a 3^rd top 50 win and the first big win over a power conference team (previous power conference scalps Iowa, Seton Hall and Wake Forest are all way down this season). Combine that with wins over Butler, Dayton and Temple and Xavier will be fine to get in with no problems even with a bunch of RPI killing games against the bottom of the A-10 down the stretch.

Others – None

St. Mary's is closest since I think the WCC regular season champion is a mortal lock at this point, but since that has only been Gonzaga and hasn't been proven I won't pull the trigger. I also think the CAA champ is a mortal lock, I just don't have the slightest idea which team that's going to be. Utah St. is close as well, but if they don't beat St. Mary's in the Bracket Busters, they have to run the rest of the regular season table in the WAC to get an at-large considering they would then be 0-3 against the top 100. Utah's total collapse over the last couple of seasons has hurt this team more than any other.