As everyone has written already, the best thing that happened for TCU was the Alabama loss to LSU. For Boise St., problems now ensue and everyone else get things reshuffled except front runners Auburn and LSU.
Most Likely to be in National Title Game in order from most likely to least likely
Oregon – Win out and play for the title
Auburn – Same as Oregon
TCU – If either of the top two loses, TCU, with its humiliation of Utah in hand now, can withstand any one loss team
Auburn with a loss – If the loss is to Alabama on the road but the Tigers bounce back and win the SEC Title, I think the computers would prop them up over Boise St., especially if the opponent in the SEC Title game is Florida
Boise St. - While they won't have their customary late season slide in the computers this year because the WAC is stronger than normal, it still won't leap them over teams into title contention barring chaos. Best bet is for Oregon and TCU to both lose a game
Wisconsin – Don't have the long-term pedigree of an Ohio St. or Alabama needed to jump undefeated Boise St. or TCU and remains in front of Ohio St. in the pecking order because of head to head win
Oklahoma St. - In the same position as Wisconsin and have the chance to avenge loss to Nebraska in Big 12 Title game if they get there. Strong in the computers and the polls would come around, but need lots of losses above them
LSU and Stanford – Both are very strong, but in the bad spot of needing two losses by their conference leader. Voters won't put one of these two in the title game without a conference title (remember that Nebraska in 2001 and Oklahoma in 2003 getting to play for the title without winning the Big 12 was one of the main complaints about the original BCS Ranking system) and conference titles look nearly unattainable
Nebraska – The Texas loss is going to be an albatross in any scenario in the computers leaving the Cornhuskers on the outside looking in no matter what happens
Anybody else – The scenario is too chaotic to even begin to comprehend
BCS Bowl Projections
National Title Game – Oregon vs TCU
Nobody in the Pac-10 is beating Oregon unless good Cal shows up and the Ducks play a terrible game at the same time this week. For TCU, its even easier getting a San Diego St. team that doesn't have the talent to stay with the Frogs but will help in the computers and New Mexico (who at least managed to win a game). Auburn isn't here because I think they will lose at Alabama.
Rose Bowl – Wisconsin vs Stanford
I don't think Michigan St. will beat Penn St. at this point. Given that, all Wisconsin has to do is win out and the Rose Bowl is theirs. As for Stanford, the Rose Bowl will pick the Cardinal to replace Oregon. The non-BCS provision that has kept Boise St. here all season means nothing if there is a non-BCS team playing for the title leaving the Rose Bowl freed to take Stanford.
Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs LSU
I admit this might be a stretch. The Orange Bowl seems to go out of its way to screw somebody whenever possible anymore so its possible an 11-1 Ohio St. could land here over LSU. I don't think that will happen but it is a possibility. As for the ACC, after the collective self destruction in the Atlantic and Virginia Tech holding a two game lead with three to play in the Coastal, we can probably safely put the Hokies here.
Sugar Bowl – Auburn vs Boise St.
Auburn wins the SEC title game and heads to the Sugar Bowl (though don't discount a Florida upset that would kill Boise St.'s BCS hopes entirely, particularly with the Kansas St. rule of having to take any team in the top four seemingly not in effect anymore, because Florida would need a marquee opponent like Ohio St. to motivate their fans to travel) and faces undefeated Boise St. The Broncos will be mad about being excluded from the title game and out to prove something against the SEC champ.
Fiesta Bowl – Nebraska vs Pittsburgh
Nebraska will win the Big 12. Pittsburgh is the scraps left from the Big East. No controversy or anything to see here.
Teams still in the running by conference after the jump
Pac-10Oregon St. and Arizona are still in the Rose Bowl running but need lots of help. No other Rose Bowl prospects and no at-large beyond those already talked about in their BCS games.
Big 12
Oklahoma St. - likely not an at-large contender, but still deeply in contention to win the Big 12 South and take the auto bid that goes with the Big 12 Championship.
Oklahoma – Likely in need of the auto-bid as well. Only at-large scenario involves losing three way tiebreaker with Texas A&M and Oklahoma St. for Big 12 South and going to the Orange Bowl at 10-2.
Texas A&M – Not an at-large hope, but still in the mix for Big 12 South if they can win out and get the right combination of losses.
Big Ten
Michigan St. - As far as the BCS goes, its Rose Bowl or bust for Sparty. Even at 11-1, there is no way Michigan St. gets into the Orange or Sugar Bowls.
Iowa – Same boat at Michigan St. but lower 11-1 to 10-2.
Ohio St. - The most likely at-large from this league. Win out to 11-1 and it will awfully hard for both the Orange and Sugar Bowls to leave the Buckeyes out. The only thing that might keep them out of the BCS is the outcry that would ensue if Boise St. was left out in favor of Ohio St. The Orange might be ok with that, but they pick first. The Sugar may not and they would take the blame.
ACC
No at-large contenders. Coastal division is likely Virginia Tech's. Atlantic is a big pile of mediocre that nearly anyone could win.
Big East
No at-large contenders and Pittsburgh leads by two in the loss column. Only South Florida and West Virginia are even viable threats right now.
Non-BCS
Utah – Needs armageddon to happen in front of them, but they are likely to be BCS eligible if they win out.
Nevada – Ditto Utah. Had they not lost to Hawaii and run the table, a good case could have been made. In the interesting spot of getting a better bowl destination if they lose to Boise. Here are the options. Lose to Boise, watch Boise go to BCS, go to San Francisco to play Pac-10 team. Beat Boise, watch bowl in San Francisco take Boise St. instead, go to Boise for bowl game against crappy MAC opponent in miserable weather, have the entire crowd there wanting to kill you. Which sounds better?
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