BCS Bowl Projections Week 7

National Title Game – Oregon vs Oklahoma
I really should stop moving preseason prediction Oklahoma out of this spot. Something makes me look foolish every time I do it. That said, there shouldn’t be any movement this week. Oregon has a bye week and Oklahoma plays overmatched Iowa St.

Rose Bowl – Boise St. vs Iowa
I did some additional thinking and Iowa plays both Michigan St. and Ohio St. at home. This means they have a good chance to run the table putting them in the Rose Bowl with a perfect conference record. Boise St. is still here in the non-BCS league champ spot.

Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs Ohio St.
With Ohio St. at 11-1 and in the at-large pool after the Fiesta takes Nebraska to replace Oklahoma, the Sugar does the sensible thing and puts together a blockbuster Alabama-Ohio St. game.

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs LSU
I still have Virginia Tech in the ACC though Florida St. makes a compelling case. On the other side, I think LSU will beat Auburn next week and end up 11-1 with a loss to Alabama. With crazy Les Miles from the SEC, that equals rare ratings gold for the Orange Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl – Nebraska vs West Virginia
Nebraska will be the pick to replace Oklahoma and West Virginia as the Big East Champ is the last team left over without question.

Other legit BCS possibilities by conference after the jump

Pac-10
Stanford – Cardinal defense will likely keep them from running the table and the Fiesta being forced to take the Big East champ with the final pick kills the at-large chances.
Arizona – Same as Stanford, but with the Oregon game still in front of them, the Rose Bowl is a more likely landing place.
Oregon St. – No chance for an at-large, but off to a 2-0 conference start. The Civil War at the end of the season could be for all the marbles.

Big 12
Oklahoma St. – Still undefeated so must be mentioned, but they have lots of traditional problems left on the schedule (winless at Texas Tech since Big 12 was formed, Gundy is winless against both Oklahoma and Texas)
Missouri – Same as Oklahoma St. Problems are the road game at Nebraska and the presence of Oklahoma that usually makes this team crawl into the fetal position and take its beating.

Big Ten
Michigan St. – In a bad spot. With no game against Ohio St., BCS hopes likely ride on beating Iowa in Iowa City. Not likely to get an at-large over an 11-1 Ohio St.
Wisconsin – Must beat Ohio St. Saturday to remain on this list
Michigan – Need 10 wins. Not likely to get there, but remain on the list until 10 wins is unreachable because the combination of Denard and Michigan returning to bowl season would be highly attractive to a bowl committee.

SEC
Auburn – In control of destiny in SEC, but 10-2 won’t get Tigers to BCS because that would almost certainly include a loss to Alabama and bowl games don’t love taking teams that lost their last game.
Arkansas – Not likely to survive the schedule with enough wins to reach a BCS game. Seem earmarked for the Cotton Bowl again. Just like every other contending season this program has. Might not be overmatched this time though.
South Carolina – Best route is to win the SEC. Not really a national title contender as there is no way this team finishes 12-1, even with the impressive win.
Florida – Gators need to win out and take the SEC title. Harbor much better chances if Alabama is not the representative out of the SEC West as that is the worst matchup for the Gators.

ACC
Florida St. – Highest ranked ACC team is the favorite. No at-large hope though.
NC State – Win out and go to the Orange Bowl. Lose to anyone but Florida St. and the conference title is likely still on the table.
Georgia Tech – Defending champs are somehow still in this thing despite playing lots of subpar football.
Miami – Loss to Florida St. was ugly, but it was only one conference game and the loss came to the other division keeping tiebreakers from becoming a problem for now.
North Carolina – Somehow still in this race, need Georgia Tech losses.

Big East
Syracuse – The only team I can see challenging West Virginia through the whole season. I don’t really think there is an opportunity, but I wanted to recognize the job of rebuilding being done there.


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