BCS Bowl Projections

Maybe I should stick with original picks instead of changing at the first sign of trouble. Notice that Oklahoma is returning to its projected national title game perch.

National Title Game – Oklahoma vs Oregon

Oklahoma gets promoted back to the championship game after the win over Florida St. to play Oregon., who remains in this spot after destroying Tennessee in the second half.

Rose – Ohio St. vs Boise St.

Boise St. gets slotted in here with the Rose Bowl being forced to take a non-BCS team if they lose a team to the title game. I don't think Ohio St. is going to be undefeated, but they will win the Big Ten again.

Fiesta – Alabama vs Arizona

Normally the Fiesta would take a Big 12 team with its pick to replace Oklahoma, but with departing conference member Nebraska being projected here as the only viable pick and a lock for one of the other games, the Fiesta jumps at an SEC Title Game losing Alabama. As for West Virginia, they are the best of a bad lot in the Big East. Considering my hatred of the Orange Bowl for staging Rose Bowl East after the 2002 season and shipping Oklahoma to the Rose, it would be fitting if the Big East champ got shipped there to play the ACC champ. Anything to make that game suck.

Sugar – Florida vs Wisconsin

Florida gets here by virtue of an SEC title game upset of Alabama (BTW I think South Carolina, while good, picked the wrong year to draw the Auburn-Alabama-Arkansas trio from the west) while Wisconsin is going to be the best of the big schools in the Big Ten, one of which is always getting picked. Don't discount a 10-2 Michigan showing up here if they can manage to get that many wins.

Orange – Virginia Tech vs Nebraska

This Virginia Tech thing may change as soon as next week, but when everybody of note in the league loses, its tough to make a change. As for Nebraska, they are highly desirable for the bowls and will be available because of the Cornhuskers impending move to the Big Ten.

Others considered for BCS slots after the jump

Others considered for one of these spots

Arizona – About to get victimized by the Rose Bowl being forced to take Boise St. and the Pac-10 gets screwed by the selection process causing unintended consequences that only affect their teams again.

TCU – 11-1 and in the top 10 sounds good, but its not automatic and that won't get it done this season.

Texas – I project three losses for the Longhorns. That will send them to the Cotton or Alamo bowls.

South Carolina – Probably better than Florida, but I still don't trust their consistency and that draw from the SEC West is nasty.

Auburn – Not quite ready to put together the 11-0 start needed to absorb a loss to Alabama and still get into the BCS. Also, with Alabama a projected SEC Title Game loser, this makes them the pick over Auburn.

Iowa – Since I see them losing to Arizona on Saturday, that tells you what you need to know

Michigan – If they win 10 games, they are likely in. I don't think they will but it is possible.

Utah – Something is just missing this season. Will beat TCU but get tripped up in other games, especially that road date in November that looms with Notre Dame.

Notre Dame – They look very good but the schedule is too tough to project them to the 9 wins needed to be eligible.

Any Big East team – They are all awful this season. I thought about putting Syracuse in that spot just to get a rise out of people and because they are the one team that has a dominant win over an FBS opponent (of course it was Akron who lost to Gardner-Webb).

The rest of the ACC – Ditto Big East. If Clemson wins at Auburn it will be them in this spot next week.

Fresno St. - I suppose they could beat Ole Miss to go along with the Cincinnati scalp and then upset Boise St. but does anyone trust these guys to be that consistent through a WAC schedule that normally trips them up.

Nevada – Same as Fresno, but more of a possibility if they beat Cal tomorrow night.

Houston – I don't see them completing the undefeated season needed and marquee names Mississippi St. and especially UCLA don't look like the type of teams that can get this team past the Mountain West schools.

East Carolina – Ditto Houston, especially with Virginia Tech this week at its lowest point in quite some time

Stanford or other Pac-10 teams besides Arizona and Oregon – Does anyone see any of these schools going 11-1 with a loss to Oregon. No? I didn't think so. Moving on. Arizona only gets special treatment because the Fiesta Bowl is in its home state and the Wildcats would ensure a sellout, even at 10-2.

Kansas St. - I don't really believe they have a chance, but with no Oklahoma and having Nebraska and Texas both at home, it is a possibility in a weaker looking Big 12.

Everybody else – Either all ready has the requisite non-conference loss to disqualify them or is not even worth discussing because there is no way they get to the 9, 10, or 12 in non-BCS teams cases wins that would get them to a BCS game.