The band as we currently know has one last season together before Utah departs. At this point we don't know the status of the WAC teams other than Boise St. for 2011 as they are going to be embroiled in litigation for awhile to get out of thee WAC before 2012.
For this year, it is all about the big three though, one last time, and can anybody manage to beat them. Considering that BYU, Utah and TCU haven't lost a game to the rest of the league since early in the 2007 season (when TCU took an odd loss against Wyoming and Utah was stunningly shut out by UNLV of all teams), it doesn't look good for the rest of the league (and next year with Boise St. replacing Utah looks just as dire).
At the other end of the league, UNLV is starting over with a new coach after five years of failure under Mike Sanford (odd wins over Arizona St. in 2008 and Utah in 2007 notwithstanding), New Mexico begins attempting to right the ship after a total disaster under first year coach Mike Locksley, Colorado St. shows which is the real Colorado St. under third year coach Steve Fairchild and San Diego St. continues to dig out from the morass under Brady Hoke.
In the middle tier, Wyoming attempts to maintain its standing while Air Force has its best team in awhile and believes it can crack the top three.
Team Previews (in order of predicted finish)
Utah (10-2, 7-1) - Conference champs by virtue of a predicted head-to-head win over TCU, Utah is going to be a factor all year on the national scene and in fact I predict the Utes will be 9-0 and ranked in the top 5 when they head to Notre Dame in mid-November. Despite all the rosy thoughts there and a veteran team, I don't think they get the job done in South Bend. With no BCS bid to play for and the conference title locked up, Utah loses to a more motivated BYU team in the finale. Nonetheless, it will still be a successful conference title winning season as quarterback Jordan Wynn gets valuable experience and wins in advance of going into the Pac-10 next season.
TCU (10-2, 7-1) - TCU returns nearly the entire offense off the best offense in the league last year and Gary Patterson always has a strong defense so many are not worried about that side of the ball, but I can't help but think last season was the year for perfection. The defense loses seven starters from last season and I think it could be a problem early as the Horned Frogs will be facing explosive offenses from Oregon St., Baylor and SMU in a tougher than it looks non-conference schedule. I think there is a loss in there even though TCU will be favored in each of those games. I think the same with the conference schedule. TCU has had a habit of choking in close late season games with everything on the line. Last year was the exception but there were no close games until the bowl game loss to Boise St. after October 10. The road trip to Utah in early November looks especially perilous and I expect another close loss along the lines of the blown game there two seasons ago.
Air Force (8-4, 6-2) - Yes, I believe the three team hegemony is done this year. Air Force is here as much because of where BYU is on the schedule (early and in Colorado Springs) as anything else. The Falcons are going to be good, but there is a ceiling on how high they can rise with the usual military academy limited talent, especially on defense where there is only so much scheming that can be done to overcome average talent. There is no way the Falcons win at TCU and Utah will be humming on all cylinders by the time that games comes along. On the non-conference side, the Navy game is a toss up and the Oklahoma game is a certain road loss particularly the week after a big upset win over BYU.
BYU (9-3, 6-2) - The Cougars have some issues, particularly at quarterback where they have no idea who is starting the first game. Considering that the first game is against Washington, that is a minor problem. Despite that, Washington's defense isn't going to be at a level to take advantage in Provo at this point. After that, the sledding gets tougher as the Cougars go on the road and I don't think they are ready for Air Force away and they certainly aren't ready for Florida St. after what the Seminoles did to them last season. After a few easy Mountain West wins, BYU goes to lose at TCU in mid-October and then the issues will be worked out. This is not a team you want your favorite (likely Pac-10) team to draw in the bowl game. The Cougars will be rolling by the end of the season and head into next season a certain preseason top-25 pick, whatever league they happen to be in.
Wyoming (5-7, 4-4) - Normally I don't condone predicting a team will have a seven game losing streak in the middle of the season and then placing them in the middle of the conference, but here is Wyoming. After the opening layup against FCS Southern Utah, here are the next seven games in order (no bye week): at Texas, Boise St., Air Force, at Toledo, at TCU, Utah, at BYU. Even good teams would be hardpressed to get through that without a few losses and these guys aren't that good. Last season was an exercise in luck more than anything else as they could easily have gone 1-11 last season with five wins by a touchdown or less and six blowout losses. Unless the offense has been magically fixed by an infusion of unknown talent, it will be a long September and October before the schedule eases for some easy wins at the end.
San Diego St. (6-6, 3-5) - I really don't know much about this team. They have been terrible for a long time, but this is a case where I will defer to Phil Steele's annual magazine preview (the best in the business). He says this is a bowl team on talent and while he makes some outlandish claims on occasion, he is regularly right. I look at the schedule and think a mid-level Mountain West team wins six against this schedule.
UNLV (4-9, 2-6) - New coach Bobby Hauck inherits some talent offensively, but he has nothing on defense. Somewhere on this schedule he will find some wins, but I don't think any will be east. I expect wins over Idaho and Hawaii in the non-conference schedule and the bottom dwellers in league play. More to come on UNLV in a full team post later this week.
Colorado St. (3-9, 1-7) - Coach Steve Fairchild's first season was a mirage. They really weren't that good. They really weren't as bad as they appeared last season either, but with a freshman quarterback, I expect the Rams to take their lumps this year before returning to a bowl game next season.
New Mexico (1-11, 0-8) - This team has nothing at all to work with. They are toast. Mike Locksley is going to enter 2011 on double secret probation if he even survives this considering he would have a record of 2-22. This has been a disaster from the start from all involved (and Locksley should have known better than to take this since he is a minority with connections in the Chicago and Washington D.C. areas, an odd fit if there ever was one).
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