Expansion mania has overtaken college football's punditry. Writers from all over the country are weighing in on the speculation and one even has an expansion-o-meter up every day on his blog. Here, this is the final expansion related thing that will be seen until something actually happens as the World Cup starts Friday.
Today, it is all about what is best and worst for everyone both collectively and individually because the best for everyone scenario seems highly unlikely to happen.
Best for Everyone – Notre Dame joins the Big Ten and the league stops at 12 teams
If this happens, the status quo will remain in tact for the most part. Nebraska and Missouri will have nowhere to go meaning they will pledge to the Big 12. With Nebraska and Missouri in the fold, the Pac-10 won't have expansion partners from the Big 12 South. Only Boise St. would then be likely to change conferences going from the WAC to the Mountain West.
What could bring about this scenario: The Big East throws Notre Dame out of the league in the non-football sports unless they join in football.
Best for the Pac-10 – Nebraska and Missouri leave for the Big 10 sending the Big 12 South to the Pac-10. In the process, the Texas politics don't get in the way and Colorado is able to join instead of Baylor. What could bring about this scenario: The Big Ten takes Missouri, Nebraska and either Syracuse or Rutgers crippling the Big 12 North and sending the others scurrying for other locals to play.
Best for Nebraska – The Big Ten decides to expand with Nebraska and Nebraska only leaving the league at 12 teams. Everything else then doesn't matter to Nebraska.
What could bring about this scenario: The Big Ten isn't convinced more than 12 teams works well and Notre Dame rebuffs their offer.
Best for Missouri – Ditto Nebraska in all situations
Best for Mountain West – The Pac-10 and Big 10 carve up the Big 12. The league then poaches the Kansas schools and Colorado from the remains to make a 12-team league splitting into divisions of the Kansas schools, Colorado, Colorado St., Wyoming and Air Force in one half and TCU, New Mexico, UNLV, BYU, Utah and San Diego St.
What could bring about this scenario: The Pac-10 is forced to take Baylor in its expansion to 16 teams and the Big 12 is carved up.
Best for Iowa St., Kansas, and Kansas St. - Status Quo remains in the Big 12
What could bring about this scenario: Either the best for all scenario or the Big Ten decides to only expand eastward.
Best for Notre Dame – Big Ten only takes one from the Big East keeping the status quo in the Big East.
What could bring about this scenario: Nebraska and Missouri pledge fealty to the Big 12 and the Big ten believes Rutgers alone gets them into New York.
Best for the Big East – The Big Ten takes either Missouri or Nebraska and no more
What could bring about this scenario: The Big Ten believes 12 is the best number and can't get Notre Dame into the fold. They settle for Nebraska or Missouri and Notre Dame remains in the league in its current form.
Best for Boise St. - They end up in the Mountain West with Utah, BYU and TCU still in the fold
What could bring about this scenario: Status quo remains or the Mountain West decides 14 or 16 teams works for them.
Best for WAC – They ship Boise St. to the Mountain West opening the ability to compete for a conference title back up again.
What could bring about this scenario: Same as above
Best for SEC, ACC – No radical expansion happens and all leagues remain at 12 teams or less
What could bring about this scenario: The Big Ten goes to 12 and no more. The Pac-10 at that point is irrelevant to the SEC and ACC situation
Worst for everyone – The entire situation shifts into superconferences and the schools are nailed for an antitrust violation
What could bring about this scenario: Everything shifts but Boise St. is left out and Iowa St. loses its long-held status
Worst for Pac-10 – The whole of the Big 12 stays together and the league invites Utah and Colorado giving the league two more mouths to feed that may not be worth the money.
What could bring about this scenario: The Big 12 stays intact and the Pac-10 feels it has to do something.
Worst for Nebraska – They don't swear to the Big 12 and the south leaves for the Pac-10. Notre Dame then joins the Big Ten leaving Nebraska left out in the cold and inviting Mountain West schools to a new Big 12.
What could bring about this scenario: Total stupidity and Notre Dame getting off their high horse. The new league would be Nebraska, Iowa St., Missouri, Kansas, Kansas St., Colorado or Baylor, BYU, TCU, SMU, Houston, Utah and likely Boise St.
Worst for Missouri – Ditto Nebraska again
Worst for Mountain West – Ditto Nebraska and everyone of note leaves. The result is a merger between the remains and the remains of the WAC. New league: Wyoming, Air Force, New Mexico, UNLV, San Diego St., Nevada, Fresno St., Idaho, Utah St., UTEP, San Jose St. and New Mexico St. as nobody really has any interest in traveling to Louisiana Tech and Hawaii and the league is kept to two timezones.
Worst for Iowa St. - left out in the cold as the Big 12 disintegrates, the Cyclones are unwanted in the new Mountain West and are stuck with no geographic partners. Suddenly 1-AA and the Missouri Valley looks awful nice.
Worst for Kansas and Kansas St. - same as Iowa St., but at least the Mountain West is interested.
Worst for Baylor and Colorado – Same as Kansas and Kansas St.
Worst for Notre Dame – hold out for independence and gets completely left out of everything. Big Ten and SEC then get Notre Dame's special BCS privileges revoked.
What could bring about this scenario: Notre Dame holds out with its independence. The Big Ten and Pac-10 expand to 16 teams and the Mountain West follows suit. The SEC expands by taking four ACC schools. The remains of the ACC take whatever is left of the Big East after Big Ten expansion and goes to 16 teams as well. Notre Dame now has no league to go to and though football independence is secure, it comes with the price of destroying rest of the schools sports who no longer have a league home. With that out of the way, the Big Ten, frustrated that they were unable to bring the Irish into the fold and the SEC, always envious lead a charge to get Notre Dame's BCS status revoked. The newly reconfigured ACC joins the others because they are not happy with the new status quo that the Irish could have averted.
Worst for Big East – see Notre Dame scenario
As you have seen in this marathon post, there are myriad scenarios and most of them are quite convoluted. I hope you have enjoyed it and I hope something actually happens soon. I am now tired of speculating.
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