Main Event Breakdown
In Machida vs. Shogun 2 we have a rare immediate rematch after the controversial decision in favor of champion Lyoto Machida at UFC 104 last October.
In that fight, a fight many gave challenger Mauricio 'Shogun' Rua no chance in, Machida was really challenged for the first time since an early career fight against a blown up BJ Penn fighting well outside of his weight class.
The challenger was the first in the UFC to cut-off Machida's escape angles in his in-and-out striking style and he was the first to pepper Machida's front leg with kicks, a strategy that for some reason had not been attempted against Machida over the course of an entire fight despite nothing else having worked against his unorthodox karate striking.
While the decision can be debated (I personally scored it 48-47 Rua with enough close rounds that it could have been viably scored anywhere in the range of 48-47 Machida to 49-46 Rua), the adjustments that both fighters must make cannot.
Machida, having been neutralized on his feet for the first time since the Penn fight in 2005, an even fight according to the Fightmetric System, must adjust to Rua leg kicks and also must aggressively take the center of the Octagon so his in-and-out striking can be truly effective with escape paths to avoid being cut-off and peppered with leg kicks ultimately affecting his agility.
Rua must mix up his game plan more. In the first fight, after the feeling out process, he relied on faking take downs to get close and then striking the legs. He should actually attempt some of those take downs, even if he ultimately will do no lasting damage on the ground, just to keep the champ on edge.
The Pick: Machida by round 3 TKO. After viewing the first fight over again, I believe Machida is the better fighter. He didn't really fight his fight while Rua executed a nearly perfect game plan and all it got him was a close decision loss. Barring something completely unexpected on the ground from Rua, Machida has more ways to win the fight striking and will do so as his adjustments wear Rua down in the middle rounds.
Co-Main Event
In the Co-Main Event, we have a possible number one contender match between Josh Koscheck and Paul Daley. Koscheck has been a bit over the last couple of year despite a few spectacular knockouts. In between those, he has been knocked out by hail mary punch from Paulo Thiago and dominated on short notice against Thiago Alves.
Daley on the other hand has been dominant since coming to the UFC. He knocked Martin Kampmann from possible number one contender to welterweight also-ran at UFC 103 and then won knockout of the night honors with his KO of Dustin Hazelett at UFC 108.
In discussing this match up, it's all about Koscheck's mindset and where he wants to fight. If his goes back and uses his wrestling, he should ultimately secure a few take downs on his way to a submission win (like what Jake Shields did to Daley in Elite XC in October 2008) or grind out a decision (ala Nick Thompson in the 3rd and decisive round in MFC in February 2009).
If Koscheck decides to stand and trade, he seems to be in for a rough night. Daley has way too much power and all it will take is one big shot like what Thiago landed to end his night.
The pick: Daley by 2nd round KO. I just don't believe Koscheck can help himself. He has grown to like the standup game and being considered an exciting fighter more than winning through his wrestling. While more of a crowd favorite than training partner Jon Fitch, there is a reason Fitch is higher in the welterweight rankings.
Picks for other fights on the card
Main Card
Jeremy Stephens vs Sam Stout: Stout by decision, this fight looks pretty even and is a possible fight of the night
Kimbo Slice vs Matt Mitrone: Slice by TKO, Mitrone is here because of potential and the ability to give Slice another inexperienced fighter to beat to keep him around in the UFC
Patrick Cote vs Alan Belcher: Belcher by decision, both fighters will look to stand and bang here and Belcher will get the better of it, especially early as Cote works off the rust from his long layoff after blowing out his knee against Anderson Silva at UFC 90
Preliminary Card
Joe Doerksen vs Tom Lawlor: Lawlor by decision
Marcus Davis vs Jonathan Goulet: Goulet by TKO
TJ Grant vs Johny Hendricks: Hendricks by decision
Tim Hague vs Joey Beltran: Beltran by TKO
Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs Mike Guymon: Yoshida by submission
Jason MacDonald vs John Salter: Salter by decision
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