Now that we've seen the riders race with their team in the Team Time Trial, it's time to take stock of the overall race and rank our favorites. Consider this a power ranking of who is most likely to win the Vuelta. This will be updated on each of the two rest days during the race.
1 Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas-Cannondale) – Nibali is the defending champion at the Vuelta and looked in good form in the Team Time Trial. The harder nature of this race with six summit finishes works against him a bit, but he is a good time-trialer and does a good job of limiting his losses on most climbs. The 30 seconds he gained today on the other contenders could be huge.
2 Igor Anton (Euskatel) – Anton crashed out of last year's Vuelta while leading the race. He is among the stronger climbers in the field and he will be extra motivated with the race going through his and his team's home Basque country for the first time in over 30 years. He has some time-trial deficiencies though that could really hurt him on the Stage 10 time trial.
3 Michele Scarponi (Lampre-ISD) – Second overall in front of Nibali at the Giro d'Italia, he had basicall disappeared since. His great early season makes him a contender here, but where is his form at. Riding into shape won't work here with a mountaintop finish at the Sierra Nevada on stage 4.
4 Jani Brajkovic (Radio Shack) – While Andreas Kloden is the designated leader for Radio Shack, I believe Brajkovic is in much better shape following his tour crash than Kloden is after his crashes. If the team really believed in Kloden over Brajkovic at this point, I think they wold have left Brajkovic when he has his mechanical issues at the start of the Team Time Trial.
5 Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) – Was in great form going into the Tour, but crashed out. Now nobody knows and his team seemed really disorganized during the TTT. Of course, dropping so many teammates that you have to wait in a TTT is just absurdly bad and a sign of disorganization, possibly total dysfunction.
6 Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Omega-Pharma Lotto) – Another Tour crash victim, his form was also very good entering the Tour. I suspect he is in good form, but he rides for Lotto, notorious for being a terrible support team for GC Grand Tour contenders.
7 Steven Kruijswijk (Rabobank) – The next big hope for Rabobank, Kruijswijk climbed really well at the Giro, finishing in the top 10 overall. I have to say I am rooting against him, or at least for invisibility because I don't want to try to type his name a billion times over the next 3 weeks.
8 Denis Menchov (Geox-TMC) – Former Double Vuelta champion, Menchov has had an awful season. I would rank him higher except I thin his chief lieutenant, Carlos Sastre, has mountain stage hunting ambitions and he already is well behind Nibali after an awful TTT.
9 Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) – I like his form, his support and his climbing. Sadly, he is already over 3 minutes back because he is the worst GC contender in the time trial I have ever seen. Had a good shot at the podium, but I think there is a 0% chance at overall victory.
10 Nicholas Roche (Ag2r-La Mondiale) - 6th overall last season, Roche has had an injury riddled year of misery. I expect him to bounce back, at least somewhat and contend for a top 10 finish.
Strong ride by Liquigas today, almost wondered if they'd put Nibali in this year's red when they had that spare second at the first check.
ReplyDeleteI'm still picking Anton though. Let's see what happens.
http://euro-cycling.blogspot.com/2011/08/vuelta-espana-2011-preview-route-riders.html
I almost put Anton up top. It's really close. Nibali is probably happy we have four mountain stages that aren't summit finishes
ReplyDeleteYeah. His consistency and a refusal to wilt under pressure is what won it for him last year, and could well do so again this year. I've just got a feeling though, limiting your losses to faster climbers on Lagos De Covadonga or Bola Del Mundo is one thing, but I've seen cars struggle to get up the Angliru...
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