A series re-examining the leagues after the recent conference re-alignment. Today, the Mountain West. Previously in the series: Big 12 and Big Ten
No conference that is likely to still exist in two years was affected more in the shifting of college football re-alignment than the Mountain West. The league lost two of its three best teams and will lose the other in a year. At the same time, Boise St. joined adequately replacing one of the teams and Nevada and Fresno St. come aboard next year along with Hawaii in football only.
As usual, we start with economics
Economically, there are still many questions to be answered. That starts with the fate of the mtn., the Mountain West's television network. The network has had trouble picking up carriage, particularly outside of Mountain West locales where you would think part-owner Comcast would at least give it some play on its sports tiers. The big question is what becomes of Utah. With BYU and Utah no longer in the league, will providers in Utah keep the mtn. On their cable systems and at what rate. Also, though they didn't bring much in the way of local ratings, TCU brought plenty of potential eyeballs with the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. The network and what role it will play is a big question going forward.
Outside of the network, economically, this league should be doing better than it is. They made a bad bet moving away from ESPN to avoid midweek game slots, at least economically (it has benefited the league competitively). This bad bet and the subsequent limitations on rebroadcast rights imposed by the league are much of why major meal-ticket BYU is no longer in the league (other than needing to keep up with Utah). The remaining schools, because of these issues figure to be largely unaffected despite the new additions to the league. The revenue will be close to the same once the new tv contracts are worked out (whenever that is). I also expect some presence on ESPN or a better deal with other partners Versus and CBS College Sports to help with exposure and revenue.
The big winners here are, of course, the new members. Boise St. gets into a better league (and don't kid yourself, the bottom of the Mountain West is eons better than the bottom of the WAC) and gets to bring the biggest and best of their rivals with them in a year. For the others, they only spend one-year in the Boise-less WAC before getting out and heading to greener pastures, much greener pastures.
Football: Losing the three best teams in the league hurts a lot, even if there is one adequate replacement and a few second-tier teams coming in. Despite that, the league could emerge as strong as ever in a few years if Boise St. can remain strong and somebody else can make the jump to the BYU-TCU-Utah tier. Remember that when the BCS started, only BYU was strong of that group and in fact Colorado St. was a consistent top 25 program. With Utah and soon TCU in BCS league, there is room for one or two non-AQ powers. It's up to Nevada, Fresno St., Hawaii, San Diego St. and Colorado St. to make sure that those spots are taken by the Mountain West and not an up and comer in a league like Conference USA or the MAC.
The other area is the schedule. As it stands now, the league isn't adding anyone else leaving them with 10-teams. Air Force, because of its annual games with Army and Navy doesn't want a nine-game schedule because they would only have one other non-conference game. The others very well might, and some may even want two more teams for a conference championship game. As far as future expansion goes, this is the league to look at in the short term (along with the Big East).
Basketball: Here is where the league is taking a big hit. Basketball is driven by marquee teams and there is no way to get better by losing BYU and gaining anything else. More so here than anywhere else, the Mountain West is weaker. If there was a second team to pair with Utah St. for football expansion, I have no doubt that they would be a good fit in this league for basketball. Unfortunately, there are no other good candidates and 11 teams doesn't work for football. In addition, most schools have no desire to place teams in different leagues for different sports (Hawaii is an exception here because of its location) so Utah St. is not an option as long as its football team has a home (and they may not for much longer).
Ultimate winners and losers
The original Mountain West members who remain are the big losers. They watched BYU get poached out of the league that team was the meal-ticket financially and prestige wise. Boise St. can adequately replace either Utah or TCU and the combination of the other WAC refugees can replace the other over time, but BYU is irreplaceable both as a rival and in ticket sales.
The winners are all of the new members. Other than Boise St. who came looking for more of a challenge, the others were given a lift raft off of the sinking ship WAC. No matter the terms and finances, not being there makes them automatic winners.
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