As usual, home team is listed first and all games are Saturday unless otherwise listed. Lines are accurate at of 430PM PT according to Station Casinos in Las Vegas.
Results
Last Week Straight Up: 4-6 (ouch) Against the Spread: 3-7 (last week was really bad for the first time all season)
Season to date: 59-31 Against the Spread: 43-43-4
Game of the Week – Utah vs TCU (-5), 1230 PM PT, CBS College Sports
TCU is the better team on paper. That said, they have a knack for blowing games like this (see Boise St. in the Fiesta Bowl and the road loss to Utah two years ago). That knack along with Utah's home field advantage and the lack of road victories for much of anyone this season will cost TCU in a low scoring slug fest of a game.
Utah 17, TCU 13
LSU vs Alabama (-6.5), 1230 PM PT, CBS
With the exception of the Tennessee game, LSU has actually played very well this season. They are well-rested and the defense matches up a lot better with the Alabama offense than it did with Auburn's spread setup. That and the home field will carry the Tigers despite not being in the same stratosphere offensively, especially in the passing game.
LSU 20, Alabama 14
Stanford (-9) vs Arizona, 5PM PT, ABC Regional
Arizona is a very good team, but they might have a quarterback controversy on their hands after this game. I think Nick Foles is going to play, but he will be rusty and not play particularly well. That will allow Stanford to get in the lead and the Cardinal offense is good enough to kill a game against nearly anyone with a lead (obviously that didn't apply to Oregon).
Oklahoma St. (-7.5) vs Baylor, 930AM PT, FSN
Baylor is good, but there is no way there are ready to win a shootout on the road against a legit top 25 opponent right now. That I am taking Oklahoma St. here easily the week after Baylor won at Texas in a year with few big road victories just shows how much of an also ran the Longhorns are this season. Blackmon will go off in his return from suspension.
Oklahoma St. 48, Baylor 30
South Carolina (-4) vs Arkansas, 4PM PT, ESPN
This game is my exception to taking the home team in big games this season for the week. South Carolina's secondary is injured and banged up and the game means nothing in the SEC East race. Win or lose, South Carolina can win the division in the Swamp next week. Lacking motivation and with no secondary to speak of with a great passing game, the Gamecocks go down at home.
Arkansas 34, South Carolina 24
Boise St. (-21) vs Hawaii, 1230 PM PT, ESPNU
Hawaii is not nearly as good a team on the mainland as they are on the islands (at the loss to Colorado shows). Meanwhile, Boise, while good enough to win in Hawaii, is nearly unstoppable on the blue turf. Combine that with the early start (930 Hawaii time) and this won't be pretty despite Hawaii's gaudy 7-2 record.
Boise St. 54, Hawaii 21
Miami (-8) vs Maryland, 9AM PT, ESPNU
Miami continues to underachieve while Maryland continues to overachieve. This game, with Miami starting a backup quarterback and running back has all the makings of an upset, but it won't be. Miami will actually take care of the football for once and since that is the only way Maryland's average talent keeps them alive in this game, this won't be pretty either despite Maryland's pretty good 6-2 record.
Miami 31, Maryland 14
Michigan (-3) vs Illinois, 9AM PT, ESPN
Why is Michigan favored? What has the Wolverine defense done to suggest it can stop any other Big Ten offense, even at home. And on top of that, the Illinois defense has athletes and has played quite well this season holding Ohio St. and Missouri to well below season averages on offense and killing Penn St. with its defense in Happy Valley.
Illinois 38, Michigan 24
Iowa St. vs Nebraska (-19), 1230 PM PT, ABC Regional/ESPN Gameplan
Nebraska will win this easily as long as last year's ridiculousness doesn't seep in (more turnovers than points in a 9-7 home defeat). The Cyclones will keep it close for a half and cover the spread at the end since they never quit on a game.
Nebraska 34, Iowa St. 17
Clemson (-3.5) vs NC State, 9AM PT, ACC Network/ESPN Gameplan
Well done NC State. You beat Florida St. to gain control of your division. Your reward: Team schizo the week after they played terrible and you have to play them on the road. Good luck and Godspeed. You have no chance.
Clemson 30, NC State 20
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