Today's Stage: Time-trial. The
race of truth and the stage that will determine the tactics of the
race going forward.
Who won today's stage? Fredrik
Kessiakoff (Astana) shocked everyone by winning his second time tiral
of the year. Not that it should have shocked anyone considering he
beat Fabian Cancellara (Switzerland) in the Tour de Suisse in June.
What matters in the GC race?
Joaquin Rodriguez (Katusha) is known as an awful time trialer. He
lost six minutes as the race leader in 2010 and lost the Giro
d'Italia on the final day despite riding one of the better time
trials of his career. Somehow though, Rodriguez, despite ceding time,
retained the overall lead by one second over Alberto Contador (Saxo
Bank-Tinkoff) with a surprising top 10 finish. Still, Rodriguez ceded
time to all three of his GC rivals. Contador closed to within a
second, Chris Froome (Team Sky) is now 16 seconds down and Alejandro
Valverde (Movistar) is now 59 seconds behind.
What matters in the other
competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – John
Degenkolb (Argos-Shimano) retained the lead, but Rodriguez and
Valverde inched a little closer with their unexpected top 10's in the
time trial. Tomorrow should bring a change in leadership if not the
jersey with over 180km of flat followed by 2km that are basically a
wall to climb at the end.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the
Mountains, it's blue in Spain, not red) – With a rare climb on
the TT parcours, points were given out for three best times on the
climb. That went to Kessiakoff, Contador and Froome. Still, Valverde
is the leader followed by Rodriguez.
White Jersey (Allround, instead of
young rider, calculated by adding the rankings in GC, Points and KoM,
lowest score wins) – Rodriguez is going to lead here for the
foreseeable future over Valverde. Other than them, only Froome and
Contador are even close.
Team Classification (top 3 times by
team on each stage) – There was a big shakeup here as time
trials often end up determining the team classification at major
races like this one. Rabobank still lead, but the lead is under 2
minutes again and it's Team Sky with Richie Porte finishing in the
top 10 along with Froome's top 5 not Ag2R who had been second (they
are now 4th).
Biggest surprise: Rodriguez,
Rodriguez, Rodriguez. His time trial ride will end up as the biggest
surprise of the entire Vuelta unless someone outside the top 4
manages to somehow win the whole thing (unlikely at best).
Biggest disappointment: Where
were the other GC men? I know they aren't challenging the big four on
the climbs, but some of them are better than this in the time trial.
At the very least, riders like Gesink should be ahead of Rodriguez in
a TT, even if he rides the TT of his life.
Other items of note: The
abandonment list grew by one yesterday as John Gadret (Ag2R La
Mondiale) left the race sick on the rest day. Still, there have been
only five abandonments. I expect that to change when the horrifying
mountains are reached on Saturday.
What is coming tomorrow? The
Wall. Tomorrow has no categorized climbs for 188 km. Then the road
tilts uphill for the final two and sheds he sprinters for another GC
fight. The gradients on this thing are ridiculous including a section
of 30%. The legs will hurt even though the day will likely be easy
until the climbs. I expect another heartless, soulless breakaway
involving riders who don't want to hurt themselves in the breakaway
for nothing other than showing the sponsor.
Tomorrow's Prediction: Stages
like this are why some say the course was built for Joaquin
Rodriguez. Whether that's true or not, tomorrow does suit him, but it
also suits Contador. Rodriguez will win the stage followed by
Contador, Valverde then Froome, wh has semmed on the edge of cracking
big a couple of time in this race.
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