Jul 6, 2012

Tour de France Stage 6 - A crash marred procession of doom


Today's stage: A seemingly innocent looking procession to a bunch sprint finish (it was a bunch sprint, it wasn't an innocent procession).

Who won today's stage? Peter Sagan (Liquigas) came around Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) at the end to take the bunch sprint and his 3rd stage win of the race. Notably missing from the sprint was Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) who was caught behind the massive crash that occurred 25-30 km from the end of the stage.

What matters in the GC race? The current leaders didn't change much. Fabian Cancellara (RSNT) still leads the race by 7 seconds over Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) and Sylvain Chavanel (OPQS). Below all of that though, the GC field was decimated as many were caught in the crash. The first chase group lost around two minutes today That group included Bauke Mollema (Rabobank), Jani Brajkovic (Astana), Alejandro Valverde (Movistar), Michele Scarponi (Lampre), Frank Schleck (RSNT) and Pierre Rolland (Europcar). Another 1-2 minutes later, Rabobank teammates Robert Gesink and Steven Kruiswijk came home. Considering that, Rabobank's hopes for this race and probably the season are shot now. Still, the biggest losers on the day were Garmin-Sharp. GC leader and Giro d'Italia winner Ryder Hesjedal lost over 13 minutes, but then again so did the entire team other than Dave Zabriskie (he was in the breakaway). The Garmin roster that was looking for GC success is not searching for that any longer. Hesjedal is still the team leader on GC in 108th place, 13' 38” behind.

As for those who managed to stay upright after the massive pile up, they are still in good GC shape, all six of them (this may not be an exaggeration). Wiggins is still 2nd overall. Defending champion Cadel Evans (BMC) is still in the top 10. Former Giro and double Vuelta winner Denis Menchov (Katusha) is also in the top 10 as is 2010 Vuelta and twice Giro podium finisher Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas). Further down among GC contenders, Samuel Sanchez (Euskatel), Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Lotto-Belisol) and Levi Leipheimer (OPQS) remain within a minute of the lead. With all of this, the overall standings will be turned upside down again tomorrow. There are mountains and a summit finish tomorrow.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Sagan extended his lead by taking the stage victory. He now leads Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) by 31 points and Greipel by 42 points. Cavendish is much further back and, in all likelihood, out of the green jersey chase. Let the Olympic prep begin.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – With only one category 4 climb today, Michael Morkov (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) retained the jersey. Tomorrow brings the likely end of his run as the stage winner is likely to overtake Morkov unless he can get himself in the break again.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) retained his white jersey finishing with the main group. Former second place Edvald Boasson Hagen (Team Sky) was caught behind the crash and finished with the Schleck group over 2 minutes down. Sagan has improved to second though he will likely drop tomorrow. In third is Rein Taaramae (Cofidis). Taaramae is a real threat having held the white jersey for much of last year's tour having won a mountain stage at the Vuelta last year as well.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – The bunch sprint finish meant no changes at the top. Team Sky is still the leader followed by RSNT 4 seconds behind. The big news here is the fall of Garmin-Sharp. The defending champion in this classification lost a ton of time today even with Zabriskie in the breakaway and now sits last, over 35 minutes behind.

Biggest surprise: Sagan's sprint win. While Sagan had won the uphill finishes so far, he had not shown the same top end speed as the other sprinters. This left him with a ton of green jersey points, but nothing to show on the flat lands. Today should have been more of the same, but Cavendish wasn't around to contest the sprint and Greipel wasn't quite full strength after crashing twice during the stage. Still, beating a slightly weakened Greipel and full strength Goss with the Lotto leadout train also in play is a shock.

Biggest disappointment: The giant crash and the end of Garmin-Sharp and Rabobank, at least as far as GC goes. For Rabobank, if riders are healthy after hitting the tarmac (and that's a big question considering their team director said it's like a MASH unit on the team bus right now), expect an aggressive bunch searching for stage wins and animating the race in the mountains trying to get back into the race. On GC, the three Rabobank GC hopes all still have top 10 aspirations even if winning or the podium is unlikely at best.

For Garmin, the questions are numerous. The first is if there are any medical supplies left since the entire team except for Zabriskie has been on the tarmac at least once (their team says the bus is like a hospital). Among the crash victims, Tom Danielson abandoned after hitting the ground hard (he was already riding injured after an earlier crash). Tyler Farrar hit the deck again. That is five times in seven days of racing. Johan van Summeren looked like he had been in a bar fight when he finished. And everybody else on the team roster was scraped up from the crash.Second is the refocus the goal. Dan Martin wanted to win the King of the Mountains and that seems a viable possibility if he's healthy enough to climb since the GC leaders won't worry about marking him if he is up the road (similar to Jelle Vanendert last year who was six minutes down and attacked for high mountain points and stage wins). Also, Hesjedal will want to get a stage win if nothing else as he still does not have one in his tour career. Remember that last year Hesjedal was in the breakaway a couple of times on medium mountain stages after losing time and was leading the race up Alpe d'Huez early on the climb.

Other items of note: There were four abandonments from the crash today. There was Danielson of course, but also Wout Poels (Vacansoleil), Davide Vigano (Lampre) and Mikel Astarloza (Euskatel). I suspect there will be more tomorrow in the form of either non-starters after the crash or those who can't hack the climbing because of their injuries.

What is coming tomorrow? The mountains, kind of. I say kind of because the stage is two category 3 climbs and then a category 1 summit finish. It is not the continuous mountain insanity that is coming later

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Jerome Coppel (Saur-Sojasun) 2. Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) 3. Chris Horner (RSNT)

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