Jul 12, 2012

Tour de France Stage 11 Review - And there will be a new champion


Today's stage: Big, nasty mountain stage with the only Alpine summit finish. For those who wish to attack leader Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky), this was the first obvious day to do it.

Who won today's stage? Pierre Rolland (Europcar) got in the early breakaway and then attacked up the final climb to La Toussuire to take his second career stage win (he won on Alpe d'Huez last year). If that sounds familiar, it is because the strategy was similar to how his teammate Thomas Voeckler won yesterday's stage.

What matters in the GC race? Defending champion Cadel Evans (BMC) cracked against the tempo of Team Sky while they were chasing Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) after his attack. The two Team Sky riders (Wiggins and Froome) now sit 1-2 overall with Nibali 3rd and Evans 4th. Further back, the rest of the top 10 was remade as Denis Menchov (Katusha) was nowhere to be found amongst the leaders (this is normal but he didn't manage to ninja himself into the final group this time) and Maxime Monfort (RSNT) was never seen after the early climbs either. Behind Evans, the new top 10 includes Jurgen Van den Broeck (Lotto-Belisol), Haimar Zubeldia (RSNT), Tejay van Garderen (BMC), Janez Brajkovic (Astana), Rolland and Thibaut Pinot (FDJ).

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Points? For sprinters? On this stage? Surely you jest. Same scores as yesterday. Peter Sagan (Liquigas) leads Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) 232-205. Tomorrow brings as opportunity for more points if there is any climbing ability at all in those legs. There are two category 1 climbs, but then a long flat area before the intermediate sprint and a possible sprint finish as well.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana) was in the breakaway today and took a boatload of points. In the process he regained the King of the Mountains jersey that he lost yesterday to Thomas Voeckler (Europcar). Voeckler's teammate Pierre Rolland is now second and Chris Anker Sorenson (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) is now third.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Rein Taaramae (Cofidis) exploded today along with Menchov and Monfort. That leaves just two men realistically contesting this category. Tejay van Garderen (BMC) still leads, but his lead over Thiabult Pinot (FDJ) was shaved down to 1' 54” after van Garderen has to stay back and help pace the cracked Evans up the final climb.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – RSNT with its ensemble cast of Grand Tour experience and ex-GC contenders now has a strangle hold on this as a different three riders finish in the top 15 of a stage every day. For 2nd place Sky, this isn't really a goal and being 1-2 on the podium is much more importat.

Biggest surprise: Froome attacked, ever so briefly. On the final climb of the day, Nibali had attacked twice and the resulting chase had cracked Evans. Then, in a fit of enthusiasm, Froome attacked. Everybody followed, except Froome's team leader Wiggins. Then his team manager yelled at thim on the radio and Froome backed off.
Non-Froome category, it would be all the big names in the early breakaway. There were 31 riders in the breakaway and it read like a who's who of former GC contenders, fading stars and injured riders. This group at one point included Valverde, Scarponi, Basso, Leipheimer, and Gesink along with scores of others and the eventual stage winner Rolland.

Biggest disappointment: Froome didn't keep the hammer down and make this race, even one between two teammates. It is obvious now that Froome is better in the mountains (just as he was at the Vuelta last year when he went from domestique to 2nd overall, beating Wiggins) and Wiggins is better in the time trial. Still, I wish Froome has continued to attack. It would have taken some of the air of inevitability out of the race.
Non-Froome category, nobody cracked the Team Sky train. This was as weak as they have looked all race, but nobody cracked Sky and now they will get to ride all the way to the Pyrenees mostly unencumbered by attacks that will bother them.

Other items of note: Prologue and first week yellow jersey wearer Fabian Cancellara (RSNT) abandoned the race today to go home and be with his pregnant wife who is expecting their second child this month... Also abandoning today were Mark Renshaw (Rabobank), Bauke Mollema (Rabobank) and Lieuwe Westra (Vacansoleil), all of whom were involved in that crazy crash on stage 6...Seven riders missed the time cut today and are out of the race. Most notable is Italian sprinter Alessandro Petacchi (Lampre).

What is coming tomorrow? Some early high mountains followed by a long flat drag and a late category 3 before a possible sprint, if the sprinters are there and no breakaway is gone.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Peter Sagan (Liquigas) 2. Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) 3. JJ Haedo (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff)

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