1 Will Chris Froome attack his
teammate?
This is the ultimate question of the
Tour. Froome has spoken about wanting to be supported next year to
win the Tour and how he could have possibly won this Tour if given a
chance (and no puncture causing him to lose time on stage 1). Still,
Froome is in second place and has looked like the strongest rider in
the race in nearly every mountain stage so far. Also, given the dig
he put in on the road to La Toussuire, it seems the only way overall
leader (and Froome teammate) Bradley Wiggins can be dropped is either
by Froome himself or by Vincenzo Nibali dropping Wiggins and Froome
not helping him chase back.
2 Does Nibali have a chance?
Tomorrow's crazy mountain stage
(seriously, this thing looks like it was lifted from the Giro instead
of being a Tour stage) finishes on a descent. This is preferred for
Nibali as if he attacks and gets a gap on the climb, he will never be
seen again on the stage (whereas the GC seemed designed for Bradley
Wiggins this yer, this stage seems designed specifically for Nibali
and the injured and withdrawn Samuel Sanchez). That said, he needs to
have two amazing days in a row and also not tow Froome with him if he
manages to drop Wiggins. He will give it a go and possibly win one of
the next two mountain stages, but it won't be enough with that crazy
long time trial sitting there on Saturday.
3 Will BMC work for Evans or Van
Garderen?
So Tejay van Garderen is 7th
overall and has looked stronger than defending champion Cadel Evans
ever since the beginning of the La Toussuire stage. Still, Evans is
the defending champion and sits 4th overall. Which one
they work for depends on who has the legs though a tactic of sending
Van Garderen on the attack on the Tourmalet tomorrow to see what
happens might be a good idea. It would eliminate the who are they
working for question and it could cause Sky to have to do some work
earlier than they would like.
4 How good is Peter Sagan?
Sagan has the Green Jersey locked up
and nearly won a mountain stage the other day. Considering he is only
22, how good can he be? First off, I don't think he is a Grand Tour
winner. His time trialing isn't good enough considering he would be
more of a diesel climber type and those guys either need a great team
(which he likely won't have given his classics needs for teammates)
or need to have an elite time trial. Still, Sagan is the type of guy
who could win all five monuments. With his sprint, he is a threat in
any climby monument as he doesn't have to solo home like so many
others. He is also a threat to the points jersey in any race he
enters, especially since he can gather points in the mountains,
something most sprinters can't do (remember that I said Mark
Cavendish should have tried to go into a breakaway at the Giro to
search for points but just couldn't do it). When his career is over,
I think Sagan will have won all five monuments, at least one world
championship, a few week long stage races and probably a top 10 in a
Grand Tour as well.
5 Who in the top 10 will crack and
suffer greatly?
The most likely to crack is Thibult
Pinot. Pinot has already cracked twice in this race, but Thursday
looks particularly menacing for him. The reason: he hasn't climbed
well on consecutive days. He was average at best on stage 7 and then
was terrible on stage 12 (but lucky that stage went to a huge
breakaway after the early climbs). Stage 17, with a tough climbing
day after the absurd day on Wednesday looks bad for Pinot.
Bonus question: What to make of the
Frank Schleck positive?
For those who don't know, Frank Schleck
tested positive for a diretic that, while not explicitly illegal, is
certainly in a gray area of doping. He left the race and we'll see
what happens next. Still, it is another blow in a nightmare of a
season for his RSNT team. If not for Fabian Cancellara, there is a
good chance this team would get relegated from the Pro Tour (if it
even exists after this season). The whole thing has been a nightmare
and it brings into question his previous results and the results of
his brother Andy. Just not good for anyone involved, even though
there is a good chance he will avoid suspension.
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