Tour de France Rest Day Thoughts

1 Is the race already over?

So dominant were Bradley Wiggins and Chris Froome of Team Sky both at Les Planche des Filles and at the first Individual Time Trial at Besancon that some are ready to anoint Wiggins the Tour champion. While I won't go that far without having seen a high mountain stage yet in this year's Tour, I think the chances are greater than 80% that Wiggins wins at this point because there is an even longer time trial waiting after the mountains. Given that Cadel Evans (BMC) and Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) need to take at least three minutes and probably four from their current positions to have a chance in the final time trial. That is unlikely even with all the mountain stages. The most likely way for Wiggins to not win at this point is for him to crack badly. If he does, the most likely winner seems to be Froome, who looks to be in the best climbing form of everyone.

2 So this is basically a Lance Armstrong tour all over again isn't it?

For those who don't know, Lance Armstrong (whether he is guilty of doping or not) used to win or get close to the yellow jersey in the prologue time trial, rely on his train of super domestiques that all were capable of top 10 or even top 5 placements if they were on other teams to pace him up the mountains, then attack on the final climb against a tired peloton to gap whoever might be left. This looks really familiar with the only major difference that Froome is better than any of Armstrong's lieutenants (with the possible exception of Levi Leipheimer). Of course given the dominance of Team Sky, much of the internet has been asking if this is like Lance's US Postal Blue Train in other ways as well...

3 … Can this possibly be clean riding by Sky? This is cycling after all.

Is it clean? I think so, but I am not overly confident. The circumstantial evidence seems bad, but nobody for Sky has failed a test in a time where the testing has been beefed up to new levels that weren't there when Lance's doped up team was pacing him up the mountains (no matter the opinion of Lance himself, his team included serial dopers Heras, Landis and Hamilton along with Leipheimer, VandeVelde and Hincapie who are all in the same did he or didn't he limbo that Lance is in from that era). As for that circumstantial evidence, Wiggins suddenly jumped quite a few level after a terrible first year with Team Sky. Yes, he had a 4^th place in the Tour with Garmin in 2009, but his 2010 results reverted to his previous level and there are plenty of cases in cycling history where everything came together in one huge effort that was career defining in a Grand Tour (see Peter Velits podium in 2010 Vuelta a Espana, Bobby Julich finishing 3^rd in the 1998 Tour de France and even JJ Cobo's Vuelta win last season in addition to the legion of Italians who have never done a thing outside of the Giro d'Italia no matter how much they talked about and targeted other races). Then 2011 came and Wiggins won the pre-Tour warm up Dauphine (he did so again this season) before crashing out of the Tour and finishing 3^rd while not having his best form in the Vuelta. Still, nothing suggested he was about to destroy the field. On the other hand, his teammate Froome came from literally nowhere to finish second in the Vuelta and the only guy to beat them was racing for the spiritual successor team of one of the largest doping rings in cycling history (Geox was run by people who were involved with Saunier-Duval, Ricco's team in the 2008 Tour de Farce, and before that Liberty Seguros, who had half the team thrown out on the eve of the 2005 Tour for doping violations). Then in this Tour, Wiggins and Froome seems to be peaking for all the big days. If nothing else it looks suspicious, especially in this sport. I want to believe they're clean and I think they are, but it is at least a bit troubling.

4 So what is everyone else to do?

For Evans and Nibali, a strategic alliance needs to be made. Obviously, their best chance is on descents. They need to attack together and work together. If one of them attacks, the other needs to not chase, forcing Team Sky to chase. As soon as Team Sky bridges back, the other needs to attack. Since nobody else who is close really has attack capability, these two have to do it themselves and they have to start quickly. If done right, at least they can bring some suspense to the time trial. If not, they will earn the respect of cycling fans everywhere for going down swinging instead of meekly. And in Nibali's case, we have seen him in a similar situation. He attacked on downhills early and often against Contador in the 2011 Giro d'Italia, trying to win it on the road. It cost him second to Michele Scarponi ultimately, but fans respected his efforts.

5 Is this a bad thing for the sport?

No, as long as Team Sky is racing clean. The Tour has never been the most exciting race in the world (the Team Sky train through mountains and win in time trials with the elite time trialer has been the preferred mode of victory for Indurain, Armstrong and Ullrich – 13 or the last 20 years). The last few years have been total aberrations in recent Tour history owing partially to Contador either being excluded or emptying the tank in the hardest climbing race ever (2011 Giro) and a lack of time trial kilometers (the last five years have seen the five fewest numbers of time trial kilometers since the time trial was introduced to the Tour). Many fans like dominance and will come around on Wiggins as long as he is clean. And those that love suspenseful racing can go back to watching the Giro and Vuelta like they should have been all along.