Tour de France Green Jersey Preview

The Tour de France is upon us. Most know about the overall victory and the yellow jersey that comes with it. For many riders, the yellow jersey is nothing more than a pipe dream. They lack the talent for climbing or more likely just have a heavier build. These riders become sprinters or all-rounders. They excel at winning races on flatlands or on moderately hilly courses (just not mountains). For these riders, there is another competition, the Green Jersey, one of the most prestigious titles in cycling outside of winning a Grand Tour or a Monument.

It's Power Ranking time

1 Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) – The defending champion of this classification. Cavendish was on point away from winning the equivalent competition at the May Giro d'Italia. Still, he is not the overwhelming favorite he has been in the past as he was smoked in sprints by Marcel Kittel (more on him later) recently and is pointed as much if not more to the Olympic Road Race in his home country just a week after the end of the tour. Considering Cavendish also does not have a sprint train dedicated to him like in previous years (he rides for Team Sky sharing the team with overall favorite Bradley Wiggins), his favorite status is tenuous at best despite his long record of stage victories and last year's green jersey in this race.

2 Peter Sagan (Liquigas) – Another rider without a sprint train (much of the team will be devoted to GC hope Vincenzo Nibali), Sagan may not need it. If the stage is possible to end in a sprint and has any sort of climbing to drop other sprinters, Sagan is going to win. For those that doubt that, look at his wins at the Tour of California and Tour de Suisse over the last month and a half. The only reason he isn't number one is that he hasn't beaten Cavendish in any of those races (Cavendish was busy elsewhere) and this is his first Tour de France. Cavendish won four stages his first time out but didn't finish the race and he won five stages in another tour but lost the green jersey to single stage winner Thor Hushovd. A similar thing could fell the inexperienced Sagan here.

3 Marcel Kittel (Argos-Shimano) – Kittel has been winning races everywhere for two years now, but most have been lower level races as he races for a Pro Continental team. Still, he is a threat and he beat Cavendish twice at the recent Ster ZLM Toer in the Netherlands. Once again though, inexperience is a likely culprit here as Kittel has never raced the Tour de France before and was beaten soundly by Sagan at the Vuelta last August.

4 Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEgde) – Cavendish's former teammate at HTC-Columbia, Goss will have a sprint train at his disposal as there are no GC threats on his team. Still, Goss has yet to beat Cavendish head-to-head (since parting ways, Goss has finished second to Cavendish four times including the World Championships last year and only won when Cavendish crashed) and therefore cannot be considered a real threat until he does.

5 Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) – Another former Cavendish teammate, Greipel won a stage last year and seems likely to do so again this year. Still, a green jersey seems like a longshot as Greipel is inconsistent at best when it comes to winning day in and day out like what is needed at the Tour de France.

6 Alessandro Petacchi (Lampre) – The old war horse here, Petacchi's career seems dead, but he is listed this high because many thought he was done two years ago when he won the Green Jersey. Write him off at your own risk.

7 Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Sharp) – Farrar vs Cavendish was thought a couple of years ago to be the next great sprint rivalry, but Farrar has not held his end of the bargain up. He has lacked form all season, then he crashed in the Giro d'Italia and watched his teammate Ryder Hesjedal win the whole race (in a huge upset). This means he has no sprint train like he normally does and combined with his lacking form, he is unlikely to win a stage this year.

8 JJ Rojas (Movistar) – Second place last year, he lacks the top end speed to really contend in this competition, especially as everything that he does well is done better by Sagan. Still deserves a mention though.

9 Kenny Van Hummel (Vacansoleil) – More like to win a stage than Petacchi, Farrar or Rojas, but he realistically has no chance at the Green Jersey. In his first Tour de France three years ago, Van Hummel spent the entire race in the mountains racing against the time cut before falling on a descent during stage 17. While his struggle was popular (he was the last finisher on every mountain stage until his crash) with people speculating about whether the organizers would “Kill Kenny” by DQ'ing him on the time cut, it also showed he is unlikely to ever win a green jersey as he is unlikely to ever get over the mountains with enough energy to compete in the final sprint often needed to win the green jersey.

10 Philippe Gilbert (BMC) – Would be ranked higher, much higher, if he was on a different team. That he is on the team of defending champion Cadel Evans means he won't get to ride for himself at all after the Stage 2 Liege race that runs by his hometown. Still, I expect him to find a stage win somewhere and to finish in the points top ten.