May 24, 2012

Giro d'Italia Stage 18 - Final Sprint with only Mountains left


Today's stage: Cruise control. Downhill sprint stage and only 139 km. This was basically a long drawn out descent before the pain really begins tomorrow.

Who won today's stage? Andrea Guardini (Farnese Vini) shocked everyone by beating Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) in the the sprint. The bigger shock was that it was no fluke. Guardini just had more speed, easily.

What matters in the GC race? Nothing at all. It was a bunch finish and nobody of note got a time bonus. Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) still leads Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin) by 30 seconds.

What matters in the other competitions?
Red Jersey (Points) – Cavendish extended his lead over Rodriguez, but he really needed the stage win. That would have been an extra five points. As it stands now, Rodriguez is likely to overtake him in the next two days in the high mountains with summit finishes. As crazy as this sounds, with only one category 3 hill before the sprint checkpoint, I wonder if Cavendish tries to get in the breakaway tomorrow to steal just a few more points (Saturday is unlikely with a cat 2 and two cat 3's before the sprint point).
Blue Jersey (King of the Mountains) – No categorized climbs mean Matteo Rabottini (Farnese Vini) still holds the jersey by a wide margin.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – No changes here. It's still Rigoberto Uran (Team Sky) and Sergio Henao (Team Sky) battling (and working together for their team).

Biggest surprise: Cavendish lost. He was beaten by a faster sprinter. Normally, there is no faster sprinter and when Cavendish loses there is some other reason (crash – see stage 3 and stage 9, team misread corner at end – see stage 11). Not today. Cavendish has had to nearly empty the tank to survive the mountains, even in the grupetto behind the the stage leaders.

Biggest disappointment: Nothing. This was everything expected, even the fast pace because it was pretty much straight downhill.

Other items of note: We now are down 31 riders with the abandonments overnight of Martin Velits (Omega Pharma-QuickStep) and Gaetan Bille (Lotto-Belisol). There might be a few more abandons overnight tonight after the final sprint stage as the few that are left in the race have no more opportunities remaining with only two summit finishes and a time trial left... Today's sprint course was much better than some others have been. No climbs, but it was short, downhill, fast and straight. Couldn't ask for a better design at this point in the race.

What is coming tomorrow? Let the pain commence. 198 km tomorrow with three category 1 climbs, a cat 3 and a cat 2. Also a summit finish. I suspect the Giro will not be won here with an even more difficult stage on tap for Saturday, but it could most certainly be lost here.

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