May 22, 2012

Giro d'Italia Stage 16 Review


Today's stage: An uphill run with no categorized climbs but a nasty hill near the finish to eliminate the sprinters.

Who won today's stage? Jon Izagirre (Euskatel) won from an 11 man break that the peloton didn't care to chase. Izagirre attacked his breakmates on that final hill and soloed the last 2km away for the stage win.

What matters in the GC race? Absolutely nothing. The peloton let the breakaway go and didn't bother to chase losing over 8 minutes. That doesn't matter as none of them, even with the time gained today, are placed better than 40th place. Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) still leads over Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin) by 30 seconds.

What matters in the other competitions?
Red Jersey (Points) – This is now a two man race. Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) leads Rodriguez. With one sprint stage and three mountain stages left, Rodriguez still has a chance to make the gap up. Nobody is within range of Rodriguez though.
Blue Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Matteo Rabottini (Farnese Vini) did take over the lead on Sunday with his stage win. He leads Michal Golas (Omega Pharma-QuickStep) and Andrey Amador (Movistar), but there are a lot of mountains left.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – This is a three man race now as some of the early leaders have fallen off because of their domestique duties. Sergio Henao (Team Sky) leads his teammate Rigoberto Uran by 1'01”. In third is Gianluca Brambilla (Colnago), 2'50” behind. Nobody else is closer than 8 minutes to Henao.

Biggest surprise: Nobody a little closer to the lead got into the break. The break was pretty destined to succeed. Somebody 12-15 minutes behind should have taken a flier and got in the break as they could have moved into the top 10. Nobody was ever going to chase today unless there was a real threat.

Biggest disappointment: Nobody a little closer to the lead got into the break. The constitution of this break made chasing unnecessary. And when chasing is unnecessary and there are no climbs, you get a long transitional procession where nothing much is happening.

Other items of note: Continuing from the disappointment section, many fans in cycling debate whether the Giro d'Italia is a better race to watch, or the Tour de France. I don't have an answer for that, but I will say that transition stages like today's are done much better in France... As for the rest of the course so far, the Giro has done a decent job. It is certainly better than last year's suicidal course that destroyed the rest of the season for anyone who rode it seriously... After the first run-in with the high mountains over the weekend, we are up to 24 abandonments from the race. Given what is coming over the next few days, that should be all of the by choice exits. Only those who crash or miss the timecut will leave the race from here.

What is coming tomorrow? Massive mountain stage. Two category 2 climbs and two category 1 climbs including the famous Passo Giau summitting 14 km from the end. Given that super descenders Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) and Sammy Sanchez (Euskatel) are not in the field, this looks like a breakaway stage again as the overall contenders watch each other and limit any time gaps. It is also a good day for a 1-2 attack from either Team Sky or Astana where there are two riders positions somewhat close to the race lead.

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