Mar 6, 2012

Welcome to the Kentucky Invitational. Hope you have you're at-large bid ready if you're not UK.

SEC is up next on the conference tournament previews and there's no sense in burying the lead here. Kentucky is going to win the tournament. Hope I didn't spoil it already. For everyone else, there is still NCAA seeding and the bubble to play for.

Thursday – First Round
8 LSU vs 9 Arkansas – Arkansas has won all of one game away from home all season. It doesn't really matter who the Razorbacks are playing, I'm not picking them on a neutral court.
5 Alabama vs 12 South Carolina – A classic don't lose game and Alabama won't lose.
7 Ole Miss vs 10 Auburn – Pretty much every tournament needs to have a first round upset and this is the most likely one, especially since there really isn't much to play for unless you are one of the fools who thinks Ole Miss is still on the bubble (they aren't, their RPI just makes it appear so because Andy Kennedy is a smart scheduler).
6 Mississippi St. vs 11 Georgia – Mississippi St. lost to Georgia not long ago. They would be advised to not repeat the mistake. They won't, even if the chemistry issues around this team start flaring... again

Friday – Second Round
1 Kentucky vs 8 LSU – Anyone in this league is just a sacrifice for Kentucky. Wildcats roll.
4 Florida vs 5 Alabama – Florida is the most overrated team in all of college basketball this season. Alabama is pretty average. Makes for a good game, especially when one team is trying to avoid the 8-9 game and the other is trying to avoid the First Four. When in doubt, go with the guards in tournament play. Sadly, that means Florida.
2 Tennessee vs 10 Auburn – Tennessee desperately needs this game. Auburn will just be happy to have gotten the win needed to ensure a .500 finish at this point.
3 Vanderbilt vs 6 Mississippi St. - The Mississippi St. pinhead complex is going to show up at some point in this tournament. And is won't be at the end either. Well, maybe the Bulldogs end which will come right here against Vandy's experienced playmakers.

Saturday – Semifinals
1 Kentucky vs 4 Florida – Anyone in this league is just a sacrifice for Kentucky. Wildcats roll. Also, notice that these matchups consist entirely of teams from the old SEC East, as usual.
2 Tennessee vs 3 Vanderbilt – Tennessee may have beaten Vandy at home last Saturday, but I still think the Commodores are a better team and this game will show it.

Sunday – Final
1 Kentucky vs 3 Vanderbilt – Vandy is the only team in the SEC that can even harbor thoughts of beating Kentucky. That said, they will still be sacrificed for the 3rd time this season, just not in as gruesome a manner as the rest of the league.

SEC Tournament Questions

Any bid-thieves?
None, at least of the auto-bid variety. Can anyone out there envision a scenario where anyone other than Kentucky or maybe fellow tourney-lock Vanderbilt wins this event? I didn't think so.

Most likely flame-out
Mississippi St. The obvious character and chemistry issues on this team could blow up at basically any time, including the first round.

How many bids for the SEC?
Kentucky, Florida and Vanderbilt are all going for sure. Alabama only needs to not lose to South Carolina. Beyond that, I think Tennessee and Mississippi St. fall one win short, leaving us with four SEC teams.

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