The Smoking Crater is the second of my power conference tournament previews. And trust me, this will be ugly and probably really wrong. Other than predicting Utah and USC as losers, every game, no matter what, even when they played each other, there were no right answers in the Pac-12 this season. Nonetheless, I will try.
Wednesday – First Round
8 Washington St. vs 9 Oregon St. - Washington St. swept Oregon St. this season, but the way they played against UCLA suggests they gave up when Washington came back to beat them in Pullman a couple of weeks ago. Needless to say, I am picking the Beavers, a perennially underachiving team that at least did something the rest of the league didn't: win a decent non-conference game (Texas on a neutral court).
5 UCLA vs 12 USC – See the opening. Predicting anything but a USC or Utah loss is foolhardily stupid.
7 Stanford vs 10 Arizona St. - Arizona St. was nearly in that same Utah/USC category until they went and beat Arizona on Sunday. That said, they still won't be winning here.
6 Colorado vs 11 Utah – Ditto the UCLA/USC entry.
Thursday – Second Round
1 Washington vs 9 Oregon St. - Washington needs wins. Oregon St. is irrelevant. On a neutral court at noon, even Washington won't screw this one up.
4 Arizona vs 5 UCLA – Arizona already screwed the season up by losing to Arizona St. on Saturday. On the other hand, UCLA looks galvanized and semi-unified for once after the SI report. Nothing like controversy to bring a team together. Given those situations, UCLA will be winning this game.
2 Cal vs 7 Stanford – Cal already blew this once. It won't make the same mistake again.
3 Oregon vs 6 Colorado – Eventually, Colorado's great run will end. That time is not now. The Buffs pushed Oregon in Eugene on Thursday and will finish the job and Oregon's tourney hopes this Thursday.
Friday – Semifinals
1 Washington vs 5 UCLA – We just saw this game the other day at basically a neutral site in Los Angeles. Rinse, repeat. This is a great matchup for UCLA.
2 Cal vs 6 Colorado – I just don't trust Cal to have any consistency from day to day. Not that I trust Colorado either. Flip a coin. Comes up Colorado.
Saturday – Final
5 UCLA vs 6 Colorado – Before someone criticizes me for a 5-6 matchup in the final, remember that this is the Pac-12 Tournament and it causes screwy things to happen. Remember that in the last 10 years there has been a 4-6 and a 3-8 final. On to the game, Colorado has no answer for the UCLA post game. It's only hope is to live by the 3 and considering that will be the case for two games before it won't be happening again. UCLA in the NCAA's, maybe as the only Pac-12 team if this bracket actually occurs.
Tournament Questions
Any bid thieves bubble teams should be scared of?
Everybody. There are no locks in this league, but its likely to get two teams in. An Oregon-Washington final could make three so there are things to be very afraid of in this league.
Most likely flame-out
Arizona. The Wildcats threw its only at-large lifeline away by losing to Arizona St. on Sunday. Given that, who knows the mindset of this teams entering the tournament. Also, UCLA is bad matchup and that is almost sure to be the first game.
How many NCAA bids for this league?
I think it will be two. The tournament champion and whichever gets further of Cal and Washington. If Cal and Washington play each other in the final, both go and everyone else stays home.
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