Alabama was the better team other than its special teams the last time around. That won't happen again. Either Alabama will be better again and it won't matter or LSU will be the better team.
The best quarterback will win the game. A.J. McCarron was average against LSU the first time around. He missed some plays and some pickups that he will have to do better with. Jordan Jefferson has been as schizophrenic as ever since returning to the lineup. He was great against Arkansas and awful against Georgia.
Les Miles is the best coach in this game. Conventional wisdom says Nick Saban is the better coach in part because his reputation and previous coaching stops say so. The reality is that Les Miles doesn't lose with extra time to prepare. Since getting to LSU, Miles has lost one game with more than one week to prepare his team. The only loss was to Penn St. in a bowl game with a terrible field two seasons ago. Included in those stats are the last two years against Alabama, where LSU was an underdog and won anyway. Given extra time, Miles just doesn't lose and while Saban is very good, Miles has proven to be better.
There will be touchdowns. In the first game, both teams had plenty of opportunities to score touchdowns and didn't take advantage. In this game, all it takes is one. One touchdown for either side will open the offenses a bit and allow some scoring to occur.
The gameplans won't be so relentlessly conservative this time. In the first game, Alabama started throwing the ball a bit, but went more and more into a shell as the game went on. LSU was conservative from the start and never came out of the shell (possibly out of necessity with Jordan Jefferson coming on in relief of ineffective Jarrett Lee). Both teams will be more aggressive and both will find some success with that aggressiveness that neither found in the first game.
Special teams won't play a major role. Conventional wisdom says special teams are a big part of expected close, defensive games like this one. It won't matter much. There won't be a game changing play on special teams here. No blocked punts, no big kick returns, nothing. Except maybe a missed kick, but nothing beyond the ordinary level.
Alabama can't come from behind. A.J. McCarron is just not going to be able to come from behind if they get behind more than one score. He can't get the passing game cranked up well enough (no deep balls) and he has never been behind as the starting qb. Even in the first game, he never trailed, only losing on the final play.
Whichever team hits the first deep ball will win the game. Neither team hit anything down the field in the first game. This time, I expect more of the same. Except this time, I expect someone to find something deep and whichever team does it first will win the game because of the space it gives to the running game.
Trent Richardson is not the key for the Alabama offense. Yes, Richardson is the most likely MVP for Alabama in the game. He also was the best player on offense for either team in the last game. None of that mattered. It didn't matter because Richardson can't do everything on his own. Where was Marquis Maze and the passing game? It disappeared at the 30 yard line, every time. If the passing game can't get going, Richardson, once again, won't matter despite being the best offensive player on the field.
The pick: Alabama has more overall talent. It has the better defense. It doesn't have the explosive talent in the positions needed to exploit the LSU defense. Given that, I expect it to be close and low scoring. Not as low scoring as the last time, but low scoring, especially compared to the other BCS games. In a close, low scoring game, the big mistake will decide the game. Last time, Alabama made the big mistakes in the kicking game. This time, Alabama will once again make the big mistake, this time coming from McCarron and the passing game.
LSU 20, Alabama 16
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