Matchup – Big 12 Champion Oklahoma St. vs Stanford
Road to the Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma St.: After a big season last year, hopes were high for Oklahoma St., starting in the top ten. The Cowboys got off to a flying 3-0 start including a blowout win over Arizona before facing Texas A&M. In that game, they trailed by a ton in the 3rd quarter, but came back to win the game (nobody knew the problems A&M would have holding leads at that point). From there, Oklahoma St.'s offense ran over the Big 12 and the defense stood tall enough to life the team to the number 2 ranking with three weeks to go in the season. Then, in a rare (first non-opening or Thanksgiving in Big 12 history) Friday night game, Oklahoma St. was shocked by lowly Iowa St. As it turned out, that loss cost Oklahoma St. a shot at the National Title when voters decided that Alabama's better loss and pedigree outweighed Oklahoma St.'s quality wins. The Cowboys did recover to steamroll age old foe Oklahoma to take the Big 12 though.
Road to the Fiesta Bowl – Stanford: Oh, but for Oregon. For the second season in a row, Andrew Luck and Stanford were incredible. For the second year in a row, they survived a close game against USC. For the second year in a row, they blew out nearly everyone else. For the second year in a row, Stanford got torched by Oregon. For the second year in a row, Stanford missed the Rose Bowl because of the loss to Oregon and had to use the Kansas St. rule to get into the BCS (for those that don't know, the Kansas St. rule states that a non-champion team from a BCS conference ranked in the top 4 goes to the BCS automatically).
Stanford offense vs Oklahoma St. defense: Advantage Oklahoma St.
Andrew Luck is really good. He also has a good running game. That said, he has thrown some awful interceptions this season. Oklahoma St. is bad at a lot things defensively. Forcing turnovers isn't one of them. Luck's susceptibility to INTs gives the advantage to an Oklahoma St. defense that knows it usually only needs a couple of stops to win the game.
Oklahoma St. offense vs Stanford defense: Advantage Oklahoma St.
The Oklahoma St. offense has all the traits of the Oregon offense that has been killing the Stanford defense for years: Spread running game, fast tempo, ability to throw deep, etc. It also has Justin Blackmon, a receiver better than any Stanford has faced in recent years. This bodes ill for the largely depth free Stanford defense.
Final Verdict: The disappointment factor. How will it rear its ugly head. Will Oklahoma St. be upset to not be playing for the whole ball of wax? Will Stanford be upset to not be playing in the earlier game? Whichever team manages those emotions more wins the game, independent of the advantages. Given Mike Gundy's unique coaching philosophies that have worked much of the season, I'll go with him and his team.
Oklahoma St. 38, Stanford 30
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