Recap
Last Week SU: 8-2 ATS: 5-5
Season SU: 77-53 ATS: 66-61-3
Game of the Week – Faux Big 12 Championship Game – Oklahoma St. (-3.5) vs Oklahoma
The Sooners haven't looked quite right since Ryan Broyles went down. Combine that flaw with the lack of a running game (also injury caused), the 87th ranked pass defense in college football, and the explosive Oklahoma St. offense that has been stewing over its loss to Iowa St. for two weeks and you have trouble. Then add that the game is in Stillwater for the second straight year (scheduling quark caused by the move from 12 to 10 teams) and you have a recipe for Sooner disaster, even if they are carrying a long winning streak in this game.
Oklahoma St. 48, Oklahoma 31
SEC Championship Game – LSU (-13.5) vs Georgia
All week, LSU has heard how this game doesn't matter and how they are playing for the National Title mo matter what, win or lose. Ask 2003 Oklahoma what that can do to a team. That said, LSU is a better team than that Oklahoma team and they will show it after a slow, unfocused start. But it won't be easy. Let it also be noted that I am sick of picking Georgia games. The Bulldogs alone have taken a good 5-7 percentage points off my pick success ratio alone the last five years. So take this pick with a grain of salt no matter what.
LSU 20, Georgia 17
ACC Championship Game – Virginia Tech (-7) vs Clemson
There are a few questions to ask in this game considering the favorite was blown out on its home field the first game and all are about Clemson. 1: Is Sammy Watkins really healthy? If he is, Clemson has a chance because he has seemed immune all season to whatever makes Clemson Clemson over the years.
2: Did the Clemson defense get lucky the first time or do they really have something? The Clemson defense has been completely average in pretty much every way all season long, except for one game. That was the 23-3 win at Virginia Tech. 3: Where is Tajh Boyd's head at? Boyd looked like a Heisman contender until the Georgia Tech game. Since then, he has looked like the lost QB that finished last season. What kind of game are we going to get out of him? The reality here: Virginia Tech will play better than the last game. Clemson really does have something, but this is Clemson. We all know how this is going to end. The Tigers will find a way to lose a close game late in some awe-inspiring way. It's what Clemson does.
Virginia Tech 23, Clemson 21
Conference USA Championship Game – Houston (-14) vs Southern Miss
Southern Miss, despite their 10-2 record has struggled on the road all season. Given that this is a road game, I expect Southern Miss to struggle. And when Southern Miss struggles, Case Keenum will take advantage and lead his team into the BCS.
Houston 48, Southern Miss 28
Big Ten Championship Game – Michigan St. vs Wisconsin (-9.5)
Sparty has improved a ton over the course of the season, but they got extremely lucky last time around. Given that they won by Hail Mary at home last time, I favor Wisconsin on a neutral field. Especially with Montee Ball suddenly having an outside shot at the Heisman Trophy. The Wisconsin running game is going to chew this one up. Also, why is the Big Ten playing in Indianapolis. This game should be in Chicago. That is the capital of the region, just as Atlanta is the capital city of the SEC. Get it right next year guys.
Wisconsin 34, Michigan St. 24
Baylor (-3) vs Texas
Texas still has no passing game and the running backs are still injured. They also aren't playing Texas A&M and the Aggies second half collapses. This means an ugly result for Texas against the explosive Baylor offense trying to get Robert Griffin III his deserved Heisman Trophy.
Baylor 38, Texas 20
South Florida vs West Virginia (-2)
West Virginia can still make the BCS, but they need a lot of help that they aren't likely to get. At least they are playing totally collapsed South Florida. Of course the game is on the road though and B.J. Daniels is back from his injury just in time to lead another South Florida upset of West Virginia. This is just a bad omen and a bad feeling about West Virginia this week.
South Florida 24, West Virginia 21
Cincinnati (-9.5) vs Connecticut
The result of this game depends entirely on the South Florida-West Virginia game. If West Virginia wins, Cincinnati is eliminated from the Big East Title Race and the Bearcats will lose. If West Virginia loses, Cincinnati wins the Big East by winning this game. With the West Virginia game on Thursday and this game on Saturday, we will at least know going in. Since I think South Florida will be West Virginia, in Munchie I trust.
Cincinnati 27, Connecticut 20
Kansas St. vs Iowa St.
Iowa St. is good, but they won't be winning here. No way Bill Snyder loses the home finale after a magical year like this, especially with Colin Klein still doing his Mr. Everything act at quarterback. Of course it will be close though, like it has been for most of the season.
Kansas St. 30, Iowa St. 28
Arkansas St. (-17.5) vs Troy
We are scraping the bottom of the barrel here and its really a chance to highlight Arkansas St. coach Hugh Freeze who has done an amazing job at this outpost of a job after being promoted from offensive coordinator last off-season. Freeze and his team will finally slay former conference overlord Troy and finish off the first 10 win regular season in Sun Belt history.
Arkansas St. 41, Troy 17
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