Nov 24, 2011

Thanksgiving Weekend College Football Picks

Results
Last Week SU: 5-5 ATS: 7-3
Season to Date SU: 69-51 ATS: 61-56-3

Game of the Week – LSU vs Arkansas
Considering this is a 1 vs 3 game on Thanksgiving weekend, it seems nobody really cares. Part of that is that its not one of the traditional rivalry games. Part of that is that even though Arkansas is number 3 in the country, they are also number 3 in the SEC. The majority of it is that Arkansas is way, way, way overrated and they are about to prove why, getting steamrolled by LSU. The best Arkansas wins this season are over middling, 6-5 Texas A&M in a game where they were blown out in the 1st half before coming back and 9-2 South Carolina that has taken advantage of a weak middle of the SEC (like Arkansas has). In fact, given South Carolina's resume, you can make the case that they are weaker than Auburn with a much easier schedule and higher preseason accolades. Given all of that, I expect this game to look a lot like the Arkansas loss to Alabama. It will be close early, LSU will get a lead and Arkansas won't be able to respond. The result will be an ugly looking blowout.
LSU 41, Arkansas 17

Auburn vs Alabama
This game, on the other hand, is going to be much closer than most seem to think it will be. Auburn will be ready to play and the young Tigers will be ready to play at home as they have been all season (undefeated at home, blown out in 4 of 5 road games). That said, it still won't get them the win. Alabama is way too good on offense for the middling Auburn defense to stop consistently enough to win the game.
Alabama 31, Auburn 21

Virginia vs Virginia Tech
Is it sad that I write a college football blog and can't name any Virginia players even though I have watched Virginia play 3 of the last 5 weeks. Of course that says something about how non-descript and starless the Cavaliers are. Against a Virginia Tech team with some legitimate offensive players (QB Logan Thomas and RB David Wilson), that won't be enough, even at home.
Virginia Tech 27, Virginia 17

Wisconsin vs Penn St.
Penn St. seemed much more comfortable last week on the road against Ohio St. than they were at home against Nebraska. That said, it likely won't matter this week unless the Nittany Lions find some offensive firepower that has been lacking all season season long since Russell Wilson and Montee Ball are likely to score more than the 21 points ceiling Penn St. has been stuck under for most of the season.
Wisconsin 30, Penn St. 14

Stanford vs Notre Dame
What is the best way to win the Heisman Trophy in a jumbled season like this one? Blow Notre Dame out in a spectacular performance. It has worked for many years and it could work for Andrew Luck this year. Of course that assumes a Cardinal blowout and the Cardinal seem to be running out of gas as their lack of depth has finally caught up to them late in the season. Notre Dame is also injured, but their closer than expected game against Boston College last week was likely more lookahead than run out of steam. For Stanford, the steam is gone.
Notre Dame 31, Stanford 28

South Carolina vs Clemson
Clemson's offense has peaked and regressed and with Sammy Watkins not at full strength, they won't be scoring a ton of points against the South Carolina defense that has only been torched once all seasons. At the same time, the South Carolina offense without Lattimore isn't going to be lighting it up, making this game a total toss up between two of the most inconsistent, underachieving programs in all of college football. When that happens, pick the better defensive line.
South Carolina 16, Clemson 14

Georgia Tech vs Georgia
As bad as the Bulldog defense was the last few years, most years they did a good job against the triple option. Considering the Bulldogs have a good defense this season, they should shut down the triple option again and Aaron Murray, after an off game against Kentucky, will be closer to his Auburn level.
Georgia 34, Georgia Tech 24

Tulsa vs Houston
This has ambush written all over it. The Tulsa offense led by G.J. Kinne has been good all season and the only three Tulsa losses are to Oklahoma, Oklahoma St. and Boise St. Combine that with a kickoff at the underdog's stadium on a short week and if Case Keenum and company don't get off to a good start, they could be in some trouble.
Tulsa 38, Houston 30

Oklahoma vs Iowa St.
Iowa St. has no chance this week. The combination of beating Oklahoma St., meaning they have the Sooners full attention and Oklahoma losing last week , meaning the Sooners are angry, mean the Kansas St. treatment is coming.
Oklahoma 59, Iowa St. 20

USC vs UCLA
UCLA can clinch the Pac-12 South. It's not happening The bruins still stink, no matter what their record says. Matt Barkley and company will make sure the Bruins and their fans remember that as they call for the firing of Rick Neuheisel at the end of the game.
USC 34, UCLA 14

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