Previously in LSU-Alabama week:
3 Biggest Keys to the Game
Punting – This game is pretty much even in most respects. The Alabama defense is one of the best in the modern era thus far. The LSU defense isn't far behind. The offenses are similar in strength with neither likely to score enough to make this a blowout or shootout. When that occurs, punting and field position become the name of the game. In that area, the advantage undoubtedly belongs to LSU. Brad Wing averages 44.4 yards per punt and nobody gets anything in the return game against him. Alabama also gives up little in the return game, but their punter Cody Mandell averages just 39.0 per kick. I think you can figure out where the edge it there. Edge to LSU.
Deep Passing Game – In the semi-weakness post, I detailed the lack of deep passing for Alabama and the weakness of LSU's deep ball defense, something that can be exploited when a corner such as Tyrann Mathieu blitzes off the edge. At the same time, LSU has developed a deep passing game as the season has gone on, most notably blitzing Auburn with deep balls to Reuben Randle on the way to an easy blowout victory. Should one team find big plays in the passing game and the other not, the team that does will win the game and while Alabama has had little trouble stopping opponents from throwing deep (except for healthy Florida), I give LSU a slight edge for actually having managed it so far. Edge to LSU.
The Les Miles trick play – C'mon man, we all know it's coming. At some point, Les Miles is going to dial up some sort of trick play. Last year in this game, it was the TE Around on 4th and 1, totally fooling the Alabama defense and basically winning the game. This season, who knows. The fact is, everybody knows there is some sort of crazy trick in order for LSU in this game. The question is how creative will it be and how well disguised will it be. Remember that even this year, LSU has completed a couple of halfback passes and had the fake punt against Florida (the one infamously called back) succeed. Alabama has had to prepare for this possibility. If they can stop whatever nonsensically crazy play shows up at a critical moment, they likely win the game. This year, they will after being burned so badly last season on the 4th and 1 TE Around. Edge to Alabama.
Given those factors and that which we already know, it should be obvious I am picking LSU even though I leaned toward Alabama for much of the early part of the week. While the Alabama defense is frightening, I don't think the defense alone can win this game and, after thinking about it all week, the defense alone is going to have to win this game since the offense isn't going to do much and the special teams are at a disadvantage.
LSU 16, Alabama\(-4.5) 14
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