College Football Week 10 Picks

Results thus far

Last Week: SU 7-3, ATS 5-5

Season to date: SU 54-36 ATS 44-44-2

Game of the Week (Non LSU-Alabama division, that game will get it's own breakdown post later this week) – Oklahoma St. (-21) vs Kansas St.

Kansas St. came back to Earth last week against a very angry Oklahoma team. Playing Oklahoma St. the next week makes for a miserable existence (and the toughest stretch other than LSU and Alabama possible), especially for the beleaguered pass defense that was shredded for over 500 yards last week. Considering what we saw last week and how good Oklahoma St. is and the location of this week's game (Stillwater), Kansas St. will need a miracle to not get blown out again, even if their offense makes it look respectable.

Oklahoma St. 54, Kansas St. 31

Arkansas (-5) vs South Carolina

The forgotten game on the schedule (read more here), this game is among some of the weaker top ten teams we have seen since the 2007 upset debacle of a season. Arkansas has looked average at best the last two weeks, nearly losing to bottom feeding dregs Ole Miss and Vanderbilt while South Carolina found life without Lattimore to be tough sledding against Tennessee but won anyway because Tennessee's super-injured offense would struggle to score against anyone with a pulse right now. In this game, it all comes down to the South Carolina offense. The defense is more than good enough to win this game and I expect them to hold Arkansas to around 24 points. On the road though, I don't think this South Carolina with no Garcia and no Lattimore possibly gets to that point total.

Arkansas 24, South Carolina 14

Oklahoma (-13.5) vs Texas A&M

It appears Texas Tech was the wakeup call that Oklahoma needed. The Sooners exploded last week in the air on Kansas St. This week comes one of the worst pass defenses in all of college football, at least yardage wise. In Norman, where Oklahoma basically didn't lose ever until two weeks ago. Given that and the ability of A&M to blow a lead in the 2^nd half in the strange event they have one and Oklahoma should win this game handily.

Oklahoma 44, Texas A&M 24

UCLA vs Arizona St. (-9)

Somehow, this game is for control of the Pac-12 South, at least as far as the conference championship game goes. Yes, UCLA is still in control of its destiny. That said, Arizona St. can, for intents and purposes clinch the division this week. Everyone else is already mathematically eliminated (yes, it's that bad in the South) and UCLA will have a tragic number of 1 when they lose this game. Yes, I said when. No, UCLA has no chance. The three Pac-12 wins on their resume thus far were against Oregon St. before the Beavers remembered how to play football, at home against improving but still woeful Washington St. and at home against Cal, who might as well be an FCS school in road games the last few seasons. Believe me, all Arizona St. has to do is show up and play an average game to get this done. If you want some real analysis and predictions, Brock Osweiler is going to throw for over 300 yards against the flammable Bruin secondary and UCLA will fall out of the game when Arizona St. gets far enough in front to force the Bruins to pass.

Arizona St. 45, UCLA 21

Texas (-14) vs Texas Tech

The Longhorns seem to be enjoying their obscure life right now, winning whenever the spotlight isn't on. Considering Texas Tech is coached by Tommy Tuberville, this will continue. Tuberville seems to do best in spotlight games, but he is no better than average in games like this and his teams are generally sacrifices in games like this when his team is an underdog.

Texas 31, Texas Tech 13

Washington vs Oregon (-16)

The late-night Pac-12 time slot. Shootouts galore (see Washington-Arizona just last week) and the most likely upset spot in the league (as opposed to the morning time slot in SEC games). With Washington as home and Oregon star players Darron Thomas and LaMichael James still ailing from their injuries suffered over the last few weeks, the ambush is set. Keith Price and Chris Polk will be good enough to get the Huskies over the top with the Ducks top playmakers not at full strength, but it will be close and take a ton of points.

Washington 45, Oregon 42

Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati (-3)

Any real chance Pitt had to win this game likely went with the ligament in running back Ray Graham's knee last week. Yes, Tino Sunseri threw for over 400 yards last week against UConn, but he was the fourth quarterback of the season to do that against UConn. Before that, Sunseri had been awful. He will regress to the mean and without Graham to help balance the offense, Cincinnati will tee off on him. On the other side, Cincinnati has the second best offense in the Big East and if they get any help from the defense, they generally win, at least in league play.

Cincinnati 37, Pittsburgh 21

Wyoming vs TCU (-19)

This is the pecking order game in the Mountain West. Wyoming hasn't really played anyone at this point, but they are still undefeated in conference play after upsetting San Diego St. in San Diego last week. As for TCU, they appear to have turned things around after a bad start to the season, but the schedule has been awful. While I believe TCU is the better team, they aren't going to win here and there is one huge reason: weather. For all the Big Ten fans that say Southern teams should come play in real man weather and see what happens, this will be a test of that theory on a smaller scale with the forecast for 30 degress and snow. I think Wyoming, more used to the cold and the elevation will somehow get this thing done with its offense against a still suspect and rebuilding TCU defense.

Wyoming 27, TCU 21

West Virginia (-13.5) vs Louisville

We have the makings of one of those head-to-head logicless chains here. West Virginia was destroyed by Syracuse a couple of weeks ago. Then the Orange were beaten by Louisville last week. This week, West Virginia completes it because the Louisville offense won't be able to keep up with West Virginia, even as the Mountaineer defense continues to collapse (gave up 31 points in victory against Rutgers last week).

West Virginia 37, Louisville 24