Oct 5, 2011

Week 6 College Football Picks

Results

Last Week: SU: 7-3, ATS: 8-2
Season SU: 32-18, ATS: 25-24-1

Game of the Week – Oklahoma (-10) vs Texas
All of Texas' ills seem to have been cured by changing quarterbacks. As soon as Garrett Gilbert was removed, this team started looking like the Texas we have known, or at least the Texas of Colt McCoy's first two years that was young, lost to Oklahoma and went 10-3 each year. That said, this is Oklahoma and it looks like a vintage Stoops Oklahoma squad. That means the weird loss will come later, not here as Landry Jones eats up the Texas secondary.
Oklahoma 35, Texas 20

LSU (-14) vs Florida
This game would have been a lot more interesting had John Brantley not been hurt last week and we hadn't seen the offense soil itself against a similar defense without him. Given what occurred on its home field against Alabama, I see no route to a Florida victory even if the defense holds LSU down pretty well.
LSU 20, Florida 3

Arkansas (-10.5) vs Auburn
Auburn is was overrated (as is much of the SEC). The wins over Mississippi St. and South Carolina look good on paper, especially considering what those teams were last season. That said, Auburn hasn't looked particularly good in any game it has played. Against the Arkansas offense on the road, that will be fatal and it will be quick. Expect a bit of a comeback, but never really a close game.
Arkansas 42, Auburn 27

Tennessee vs Georgia (-1)
I don't believe at all in Georgia. The Bulldogs are headed to getting their coach fired and the confidence gained by beating the Mississippi schools won't last long here (in part because both Mississippi schools are bad football teams). Once reality sets in that Tennessee has talent (young though it might be), Georgia will fold like it did against Boise St. and make bad mistakes like it did against South Carolina.
Tennessee 34, Georgia 24

Texas Tech vs Texas A&M (-9)
Despite being 4-0, we know nothing about Tommy Tuberville's latest team. Their wins range from bad to terrible (FCS team, at New Mexico, one point win over rebuilding Nevada and awful Kansas team. As for A&M, evidently they need to be bad in the first half with a slim lead. Big leads don't agree well with them. On the road in Lubbock, they won't have to worry. Tuberville gets his teams up for these type of games and A&M's confidence has to be shaken after the collapses the last two weeks. If this game were in College Station, it wouldn't matter but in Lubbock its Tech.
Texas Tech 31, Texas A&M 27

Kansas St. vs Missouri (-3)
The Wildcats are surprisingly 4-0, but both Baylor and Miami's reputations exceed their talent level. Missouri's reputation at this point doesn't match its talent level. That will be the difference for Kansas St. between the surprising upsets of Miami and Baylor and a disappointing loss to a Missouri team that could be 4-0 and ranked in the top 5 with some better decisions against Arizona St. and some luck against Oklahoma.
Missouri 34, Kansas St. 24

Oregon (-24) vs Cal
Cal is on the road. Cal on the road is generally not a good thing. Cal on the road at Oregon on a Thursday is a recipe for disaster (as is nearly everyone in the Pac-12). Given the injury faking thing last season, I expect Oregon to be out throw a number on the board with a national audience watching. This won't be pretty.
Oregon 59, Cal 17

Northwestern vs Michigan (-7.5)
I actually believe in the Michigan defense, at least against teams of inferior talent. The Northwestern offense, despite its scheme based success, is not very talented. The Michigan defense, while not eating it alive, will do enough to ensure a nice easy win because Northwestern won't be stopping the Michigan offense much, if at all.
Michigan 41, Northwestern 24

Utah vs Arizona St. (-4)
The Utes are hurting with quarterback Jordan Wynn hurt and being a West Coast version of the Notre Dame turnover machine last week against Washington. Against Arizona St., the only hope is to force a ton of turnovers (admittedly a possibility given the four turnovers the Sun Devils committed against Oregon St. last week). The problem is that even with the help, I don't Utah can win without Wynn.
Arizona St. 29, Utah 17

Virginia Tech (-7.5) vs Miami
The Hokies looked awful on offense against Clemson last week. Given that Clemson hasn't played much defense before that, I think the Hokies have a really bad offense. Miami already took apart one really bad offense this season (Ohio St.). They will do it to another, surprisingly. And the Hurricanes will get enough offense to win.
Miami 17, Virginia Tech 13

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