BCS Insanity - Projections and the Like

Projections – These are made with the attempt to predict future games

National Title Game – LSU vs Clemson – These will be the only two undefeated AQ teams, ergo, this will be the title game matchup.

Rose Bowl – Oregon vs Wisconsin – Ducks will find a way to beat Stanford while Wisconsin will beat the winner of the Michigan St./Nebraska game this weekend in the Big Ten Title Game.

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma vs Stanford – With the Big Ten and SEC off the board and a Big 12 team already in this game, the Fiesta will take one-loss Stanford and pit Andrew Luck against Oklahma's high powered offense.

Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs Boise St. - This matchup should be obvious, especially cinsdiering nobody wants the Big East Champion

Orange Bowl – Nebraska vs Cincinnati – With the second at-large to replace anchor Clemson, the Orange will go for nostalgia (at least for themselves) and pick Nebraska before getting stuck with Big East Champ Cincinnati.

Teams still in hunt for BCS Championship Game and what they need to get there

LSU – Tigers need to win out. A loss will kill them because it would cause them to lose any tiebreakers in SEC West play, meaning they won't win the conference and with no conference title, there will be no national title shot.

Alabama – Not in as dire a straits as LSU if they lose a game (especially if its the Auburn game). As long as Alabama wins the division and there aren't two undefeated AQ teams, Alabama plays for the title even with a loss as long as they win the SEC.

Oklahoma St. - Cowboys win out and play for the title. A loss anywhere against the remaining schedule likely leaves them toast given the possible losses would either cause a lost tiebreaker in conference play or be a loss to the likes of Baylor. That won't get a non-historic powerhouse to the National Championship.

Boise St. - Need to win out and needs either the SEC champ to be the only AQ undefeated or the SEC champ to have two losses with only one other AQ undefeated. Probably would help to be impressive in victory to keep a possible one-loss Big 12 team out of the top spot.

Clemson – Win out, get a loss by the Alabama/LSU winner or Oklahoma St. Win the coin flip over Stanford or have the Cardinal lose.

Stanford – Same scenario as Clemson.

Kansas St. - Win out and play for the title. Lose and enjoy San Diego for the Holiday Bowl.

Oklahoma – Same scenario as Boise St. Might need a loss from Boise St. as well.

Arkansas – Win out and preferably blow LSU out. LSU also needs to beat Alabama. And there need to be no more than 1 AQ undefeated

South Carolina – Win out and have less than 2 AQ undefeateds (Good luck with that one without Lattimore)

Given those scenarios, what is the probability of the chaos so many root for? 10% - The number actually shrinks because Wisconsin is no longer undefeated and the Badgers were likely to get left out if they finished undefeated and there were two other AQ undefeateds.

After the jump are the scenarios for teams to reach one of the lesser BCS games.

Teams still in hunt for BCS Game (by conference)

Pac-12

Oregon – Win out and go to the Rose Bowl. Not in title race because they are behind LSU in the pecking order and voters won't ordain a rematch of that game. Also a possible at-large contender for the Fiesta Bowl at 10-2 with close loss to Stanford.

Washington – Win out and get 2 Stanford conference losses (almost certainly woyld have to be against USC and Oregon), play in the Rose Bowl.

Arizona St. - Win the Pac-12 Championship game, go to the Rose Bowl. With USC ineligible, playing in Pac-12 Championship game is nearly foregone conclusion.

UCLA – Technically still in race and still somehow in control of own destiny. Win out and play in the Rose Bowl (LOL).

Big 12

Texas A&M – Win out, then figure out how to win a 3-way tiebreaker with Oklahoma st. involved (unlikely) or get two Oklahoma St. losses while winning out.

Texas Tech – Despite worse record and head-to-head loss to A&M, Tech in better longshot position if they win out. Need a ton of help though (1 additional loss by Oklahoma St. since Red Raiders would beat Cowboys along the way, 3 Kansas St. losses or 2 Texas A&M losses and an additional Oklahoma loss).

Big Ten

Wisconsin – Loss affects nothing in Big Ten race. Badgers still control destiny.

Penn St. - Nittany Lions have quietly jumped out to 4-0 in conference play and of course control own destiny.

Purdue – Need to win out and get two Penn St. losses. Will soon be toast in this race.

Ohio St. - Win out and get one additional Penn St. loss and the Big Ten Championship is still possible.

Michigan St. - Win out, go to Rose Bowl

Michigan – Need Michigan St. losses and to win out to 7-1. 6-2 likely won't do it unless.

Nebraska – Win out and go to Rose Bowl. Most important game is this week against Michigan St.

Iowa – Quietly in control of destiny. Hawkeyes only conference loss was outside of division. Win all games, play for Big Ten Championship.

SEC

Georgia – Win out and get a South Carolina loss to win the East. Then pray for a plague upon whichever team comes from the West to have a prayer.

Florida – Win out and get a miracle. Would need South Carolina to lose to Arkansas or Tennessee, Georgia to lose to Auburn. Then would need to somehow turn around the LSU or Alabama result in conference title game.

ACC

Wake Forest – Win out including victory over Clemson, go to ACC Championship game.

Virginia Tech – Win out, win division, play for ACC Title.

Georgia Tech – Win out and get a Miami and Virginia loss.

Virginia – Win out, play for ACC Title.

Big East – League is jumbled mess. Cincinnati leads, everybody else except South Florida has exactly one loss. Still too early to start coming up with permutations like the other leagues.

Non-AQ

Houston – Win out and get a loss from Boise St. Also would help if SMU wins all remaining games except Houston game and Southern Miss gets to Conference USA Championship game 11-1. Even without Boise St., would at least be eligible if not desired by any major bowls.