BCS Bowl Projections – End of September

These projections will next show up at the end of October and then weekly in November until the BCS pairings are announced in December.

National Title Game – Oklahoma vs LSU

I have changed from my preseason Virginia Tech projection for various reasons (which can be read below). For Oklahoma, they aren't losing at home leaving Oklahoma St. and Texas as the only legit chances to lose. Texas isn't ready yet in its rebuilding process and Oklahoma St. hasn't stopped an Oklahoma offense since 2002. That won't change this season.

As for LSU, their defense is amazing and I think they will be able to bottle up Alabama considering the Crimson Tide has no downfield passing threat whatsoever.

Others considered: Alabama, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Stanford, Oklahoma St., Florida, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan, Georgia Tech

Rose Bowl – Wisconsin vs Oregon

Wisconsin has looked incredible thus far against subpar competition. Considering I believe most of the Big Ten is subpar, that won't change though the Badgers will blow a game somewhere along the line in mind-numbing fashion.

As for Oregon, there is no shame in losing to LSU, especially in the opener and I have seen nothing since that leads me to believe anyone in the Pac-12 is going to stop the Duck offense (that includes Stanford).

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma St. vs Nebraska

While I believe Oklahoma St. will lose a game before the annual loss to Oklahoma, that will still be good enough to get them to the Big 12 tied-in Fiesta Bowl at 10-2. As for their opponent, the Fiesta won't be able to resist the Nebraska traveling fanbase they that haven't gotten in the BCS era despite its previous membership in the Big 12. If Nebraska isn't here, I expect it to be Michigan, who could go 10-2 in a weak Big Ten.

Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs West Virginia

The Sugar is taking the SEC West runner up barring something unforeseen (Florida upset of Alabama or LSU). When given a choice between Boise St. and West Virginia, the Bowl will go for West Virginia's traveling horde over Boise going halfway across the country.

Orange Bowl – Georgia Tech vs Boise St.

The Yellow Jackets have returned to their form from two years ago, just in time to make Virginia Tech's schedule significantly more difficult. They will win at home against the Hokies to spoil Virginia Tech's undefeated run (if VT even gets past a much improved Clemson) and take their division. This development will also lead the Orange Bowl to try anything is can to get out from the ACC tie-in. The other bowls won't care and won't allow it. Then, to compound matters for the Orange Bowl, they will be hosting a non-AQ for the first time. At this point, bowl executives will want to jump off a building.

After the jump are others considered for BCS slots.

Others considered for BCS slots by conference

ACC

Clemson – Might be the best team in a very evenly matched top of the ACC, but drawing the three best teams from the other division (North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech) along with some sort of Clemson style stubbing of the toe will keep them out of the ACC Title Game.

Florida St. - Will overtake Clemson despite trailing right now in the division and not holding the tiebreaker. Will lose ACC Title Game if Georgia Tech is the opponent because there is no way to prep for that kind of triple option in one week, especially when they weren't on the schedule to begin with.

Virginia Tech – My preseason pick for the ACC Title and the National Title Game hasn't looked great and has seen their schedule get a whole lot harder with the emergence of Clemson and Georgia Tech as top 25 teams.

Big East

South Florida – Bulls are looking good, but I don't expect them to be able to keep up with West Virginia in the eventual track meet they will play

Big Ten

Michigan – The Wolverines are good and I expect them to win a lot of games in a subpar Big Ten this season. They won't be swiping the division title from Wisconsin though and they don't do that, they will need 11-1. I don't see that happening either (though 10-2 is a possibility).

Ohio St. - If they win this week and get their suspended players back, who knows? It's possible but unlikely.

Penn St. - The defense is really really good. If they get even average quarterback play, they could win 10 games and be in contention late for the conference title.

Big 12

Texas A&M – The loss to Oklahoma St. is a killer. Essentially need to win out from here for BCS consideration. Good luck with that with that road game at Oklahoma.

Texas – An intruiguing team because a 10-2 finish would like do the trick for the Fiesta Bowl if Oklahoma is off in the National Title Game. I don't think they will win 10, but there is an outside shot.

Missouri – A longshot, the schedule sets up well for a big run. They could win out and if they do, their 10-2 record will trump all the other 10-2's in the league, at least on the deserve factor. On the fans and crowd factor, they will get passed over though, just like in 2007 when Kansas undeservingly went to Orange Bowl over Missouri.

Pac-12

Stanford – Won't win the Pac-12 and don't travel well enough to get an at-large anywhere other than the Fiesta without a top 4 ranking. With a weak Pac-12, the loss to Oregon will cost them that ranking and the Fiesta will go for the Big Ten fans over Andrew Luck and his merry band.

Arizona St. - The loss to Illinois really hurts. With that, the best they will likely do is 10-3 with a road loss in the Pac-12 title game. That won't be enough unless the Fiesta Bowl decides they want a sell out more than tourists and the Big Ten runner up doesn't fit for some reason.

SEC

Florida – The next two week will tell the tale. The Gators host Alabama and then go to LSU. If they somehow get a split, the Sugar Bowl or even the National Title Game is a possibility. If not, the goals readjust to winning the SEC East and pulling an upset in Atlanta.

South Carolina – Could win the East so they need to be here. Don't believe they have any chance in Atlanta if they get there.

Others

Notre Dame – Will be favored in every game until the Stanford game at the end. The turnover machine will cause at least one more loss though, eliminating them from contention.

TCU – Needs to win out. They won't win on the blue turf, and there might be another loss out there with their inexperienced defense in Mountain West play.

Houston – Good luck running the table with that defense. It's awful. Along with that, there is very little opportunity to jump Boise St. barring a huge run by September victim UCLA that isn't coming. On this list because of the current undefeated record.