Week 1 College Football Picks and Breakdown

Results

Last Season: 112-68 (killed by an awful bowl season, 16-19 there), ATS: 84-84-7 (once again destroyed during bowl season, -6 games there there).

Odds are according to Station Casinos as usual and are current as of 4PM PT

Game of the Week – LSU vs Oregon (-3) in the Cowboys Classic, aka the Willie Lyles Probation Bowl

This is an awful matchup for Oregon. They are playing a top five team with significant rest and preparation time. This has been the recipe for disaster (and three of Oregon's four losses over the last two seasons). Add in that LSU's has a very good defensive line capable of slowing the Oregon running game and you have issues. On the other side, Jordan 'HeadKick' Jefferson's absence because of his bar fight legal issues will actually help them here. Jarrett Lee will do well at quarterback and not screw things up like he did as Mr. Pick 6 back when he was a freshman in 2008.

LSU 24, Oregon 20

Boise St. (-3.5) vs Georgia in the Chick-fil-a Classic, aka Mark Richt's Last Stand Part 1

Man for man, Georgia is the most talented team Boise St. has seen since the Oklahoma game during the 2006 bowl season. It will show here. People can say all they want that Boise played and won under similar circumstances last year against Virginia Tech. Well, Virginia Tech quite obviously didn't have it all together (see falling behind 17-0 with a punt block and losing to James Madison the next week) at that point. Georgia will considering they are playing this season for the coach's job. On the field, Kellen Moore will miss his NFL receivers that graduated and Georgia, propelled by the home crowd in the Georgia Dome will do just enough to get the win at the end.

Georgia 30, Boise St. 24

USC (-22) vs Minnesota

Minnesota's coach has the best name of any coach in the sport: Coach Kill. You don't want to cross Coach Kill, but Minnesota doesn't have enough talent for any name based motivation to work, especially against USC. The Trojans might be on probation and banned from the postseason, but they shouldn't lack for motivation, at least not yet.

USC 34, Minnesota 20

Houston (-3) vs UCLA

The quarterbacks in this game might want to be praying to God, Moses, any deity, or pretty much anyone they can think of given the plague that occurs around UCLA quarterbacking. Of course the Bruins have their usual issues with the Prince/Brehaut combo still taking the snaps and supposed freshman savior Brett Hundley injured in practice and only having a small package developed for him. The real story is on the other side. Houston quarterback Case Keenum returns after being knocked out for the season against UCLA last season with a torn ACL. The Bruins then proceeded to knock his backup out for the season too. Whichever quarterback survives the game and then gets over the injuries mentally to perform better will win the game for his team.

UCLA 28, Houston 27

Maryland vs Miami (-1)

Poor Al Golden. He probably wouldn't think that the Maryland job that also manned by a first year coach (Randy Edsall, last seen getting crushed by Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl at Connecticut) would be a much better job than what he walked into, but that was before anyone knew who Nevi Shapiro was. Given the suspensions for game one, Miami has little chance of winning here unless Maryland has significantly regressed or not bought into to the system after seeing the coach fired for a 9-4 record to bring in a similar coach. Maryland will have regressed, but not enough to lose this game at home as Golden loses his first game.

Maryland 24, Miami 14

Boston College (-3) vs Northwestern

At this point, Northwestern looks absolutely moronic. They put up billboards in Chicago and Bristol, CT (home of ESPN) and sent dumbbells out for a Heisman campaign for a quarterback who is still not healed from last season and may not play. Even if he does, his mobility will be affected and last time I checked, Dan Persa's mobility is what made him and his team dangerous considering there are no other offensive threats to speak of and the defense was incinerated like none other in the Big Ten down the stretch. On the other side, Boston College RB Montel Harris, the only offensive threat to speak of, will miss the game injured. Between the Persa problems and Harris' injury, this looks like a low scoring game.

Northwestern 17, Boston College 13

Oklahoma (-25) vs Tulsa

With Damaris Johnson of Tulsa suspended for buying well over $2000 worth of stuff from a Macy's for $13.25 on his girlfriend's (also a Macy's employee) credit card causing her to get arrested, any chance for Tulsa keeping this close disappeared. Johnson is the NCAA active all-purpose yardage leader (I use the term active knowing he may well not be for much longer) and the only way for his team, with a new coach, to stay close was for Johnson to return pretty much every Sooner score for a touchdown. Without him this will be ugly. The Tulsa defense is like playing 7-on-7 drills on its better days. Against the Oklahoma offense, it will look like air.

Oklahoma 62, Tulsa 21

Notre Dame (-10.5) vs South Florida

Poor Skip Holtz. People like Kirk Herbstreit keep saying these guys can win at Notre Dame. I don't see it. B.J. Daniels is supremely overrated based on his win over an average Florida St. team a couple of years that was fueled more by the defense than him (USF won 17-7). His usual scattershot throwing will not work against a Notre Dame defense that got a lot better as the season went on last year and might still be catching easy interceptions served up by Miami quarterbacks in the bowl game if allowed to.

Notre Dame 30, South Florida 14

Baylor vs TCU (-5)

I should just title this Robert Griffin III vs TCU because Griffin is the team and the rest of the Baylor roster is what it usually is: warm bodies. Against TCU, that won't cut it even if TCU is not at its usual level quite yet.

TCU 34, Baylor 24

Texas A&M (-16) vs SMU

SMU is improving and Texas A&M has been bad in early season games under Mike Sherman. Add to that the distraction of conference limbo and roulette and you have a bad situation for the Aggies. Luckily for them, they are at home and SMU is still just SMU, not Pony Express SMU.

Texas A&M 31, SMU 27

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