These rankings are still now ranked in order of predicted overall finish in the Vuelta. Next to each rider, you will find their team, where I ranked them last time, and how far off the lead they are.
1 Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas-Cannondale, LW: 1, Position: 4th overall, 31” behind leader Chris Froome) – The defending champion, Nibali has looked the best among the early favorites in this race. Any stages he has lost time on have been ones not suited to his skillset. At this point, he is an overwhelming favorite to win this race overall, especially with most of the better climbers now way back after the time trial. If he survives the Angliru stage on Stage 15 without major losses on another climb not suited to him, he should win the race overall.
2 Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky, LW: 5, Position: 3rd overall, 20” behind Froome) – Wiggins climbed really well during stage 9 and then followed it up with a great run in the stage 10 time trial, finishing 3rd. He is more of a time trial specialist than a climber and with no more time trials, he will lose some time in the mountains. I expect him to be in contention all the way to Madrid though.
3 Bauke Mollema (Rabobank, LW: NR, Position: 7th overall, 1'07” behind Froome) – It turns out I had the wrong Rabobank rider in my last rankings (Steven Kruijswijk is 18th, 3'52” behind Froome). Mollema has been a revelation after a disappointing Tour de France (for himself and really the whole team). He has already led the race for a day and while he lost time in the time trial, it wasn't enough to put him in a very deep hole. His climbing has been as good as it was in the Tour de Suisse, where he was 2nd overall before a late puncture on the second to last stage derailed him. I expect a strong race from here out and possibly even a stage win for Mollema.
4 Jakob Fuglsang (Leopard-Trek, LW: NR, Position: 2nd overall, 12” behind Froome) – Fuglsang led the race after the Team Time Trial on Stage 1, but I left him out as this was his first Grand Tour as a GC leader. That was a mistake. He has climbed very well thus far in addition to his strong time trial skills. I view him as a bit of a poor man's Nibali in the mountains and think that will cost him a bit though.
5 Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana, LW: NR, Position: 5th overall, 34” behind Froome) – This man has been a revelation thus far in just his third year as a road cyclist after a strong mountain biking career. I honestly had never heard of him before looking at the overall standings and seeing him 4th overall after stage 9. His time trial was good, his climbing has been good and the mountain biking background most certainly worked for Cadel Evans, so I will slot him here knowing there are major reservations about everyone else in the field.
6 Chris Froome (Team Sky, LW: NR, Position: Overall leader by 12” over Fuglsang) – Why, might you ask, is the leader of the race this far down after a very difficult first 10 stages? There are two reasons. First, he is unproven and second, he is still a domestique. When everything really matters, Froome will be working for Wiggins, much like Pierre Rolland was for Thomas Voeckler at the Tour de France despite having his own ambitions. That means lots of pacemaking at the front and extra expended energy. If given the opportunity, I expect Wiggins to gift him a stage win, but I also expect Froome to crack in a big way at least once and tumble down the standings, possibly on the Angliru stage.
7 Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha, LW: 9, PositionL 14th overall, 3'23” behind Froome) – Rodriguez had his expected terrible time trial. In fact, he is right where I expected him to be when I ranked him 9th last week, but Scarponi and Anton's struggles have raised his ranking a bit. Rodriguez really has no chance at the overall barring some sort of crazy long distance attack and break survival. It is most like to happen on the Angliru stage. Even if it doesn't, Rodriguez should get another stage win and place highly enough on the remaining mountain stages that he retains his points jersey considering the lack of sprint stages to allow a sprinter back into the competition.
8 Jani Brajkovic (Radio Shack, LW: 4, Position: 9th overall, 2'04” behind Froome) – Could Brajkovic make up the deficit to Froome? Absolutely. Could he jump everyone else along the way? Doubtful at best with no time trial. His form has been just slightly off, enough to remove him from victory contention and enough that I don't think he is a threat to win a stage. Even so, Brajkovic will finish in the top 10 as others around him crack and fall back.
9 Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Omega Pharma-Lotto, LW: 6, Position: 12th overall, 2'21” behind Froome) – Copy everything I said about Brajkovic and paste it here. They are similar riders who both crashed out of the Tour de France and both showed up at the Vuelta in good, but not great form following their injuries.
10 Juan Jose Cobo (LW: NR, Position: 8th overall, 1'47” behind Froome) and Denis Menchov (LW: 8, Position: 13th overall, 2'35” behind Froome) – These two riders from Geox-TMC are listed together because I have no idea which one will be the leader of the team from here out. Cobo has been better of late (and really all season), but Menchov was the designated leader before the race and has won two Vueltas and a Giro. I expect the team to continue to support Menchov or try and protect both, but I believe only one will finish in the top 10 and I don't have the slightest idea which one it will be. I f I had to bet, I would say Cobo with his better form and the lack of a time trial remaining to carry Menchov back.
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