Main Event: Strikeforce Welterweight Title, Nick Diaz (c) vs Paul Daley
With the purchase of Strikeforce by UFC parent company Zuffa, this bout both takes on added significance and loses some luster at the same time. What is lost is championship relevance. With Strikeforce under Zuffa control, this championship is just another lower league title right now. At the same time, it is a chance to impress the new bosses and get in position for a shot at UFC gold somewhere down the line (at least for Diaz, Daley has other issues).
As for the fight itself, Diaz has a huge advantage on the ground and has a small advantage striking, but not in the power department. I expect this fight to go a lot like the fight with Evangelista Cyborg Santos did in January, but without the foolish takedown setting the submission up. On the other side, Daley has one-punch knockout power, but at we saw in the Josh Koscheck fight last year, it can be nullified by a strong wrestler. Diaz is not a strong wrestler despite his good jiu-jitsu game.
Ultimately, Diaz is going to wear Daley out. Diaz has shown an incredible chin in his career and this will be no exception. Daley might even win a round or two early, but Diaz and his relentless volume striking will eventually carry the day.
Diaz by decision.
Strikeforce Lightweight Title, Gilbert Melendez (c) vs Tatsuya Kawajiri
Melendez gets a chance to continue his run through the non-UFC lightweight division with a rematch against Kawajiri who he beat in PRIDE in a classic match back in 2006. Since then, Melendez has just gotten better while Kawajiri has slipped a little getting knocked out by Eddie Alvarez and facing less than stellar competition.
In this fight, Kawajiri will also have to deal with the issues his countryman Shinya Aoki dealt with last year: the Unified Rules and the cage. Kawajiri has done very well over his career cutting the ring off and cornering opponents into the clinch where he can then work a very American style game of takedowns, top control and ground and pound. He is certainly better suited to the cage than Aoki, but he may find the tool shed empty in his attack without some of the knees and kicks to downed opponents that have been available to him. At the same time, Kawajiri will have to deal with elbows to the head while on the ground for the first time (and also the first time in Strikeforce). With all those changes and both fighters being four year older since the first bout, I don't see too many ways to victory for Kawajiri.
Melendez by decision
Gegard Mousasi vs Keith Jardine
A short notice fight after Mike Kyle was injured, Jardine will come to fight with his trademark awkward striking and ability to brawl. That said, he has no chance of winning this fight that way. Jardine only has one path to victory and that is a top control decision. The reason of course is that Mousasi possesses K-1 level striking and Jardine's chin remains an enigma easily solvable by left-look at this point in his career. Mousasi will find that KO button if Jardine keeps this standing.
Mousasi by KO, round 3
Shinya Aoki vs Lyle Beerbohm
First things first. If bright colors scare you and ridiculous patterns from the early 90s frighten you, wait for awhile to tune in because this fight will scar your eyes between whatever crazy bright Japanese pants Aoki wears and Beerbohm and his 'fancy pants'. That said, this fight looks sadly one-sided. Beerbohm doesn't have the striking to win without going to the ground. Going to the ground is just about the worst thing anyone can do with Aoki. Hopefully Fancy Pants gets out with all of his limbs still in one piece.
Aoki by submission, round 2
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