The battle for number one seeds has been raging for awhile now. Here are the contenders with the chances they actually attain a spot on the top line of the tournament bracket. Teams listed in order of probability to be a top seed.
Ohio St. - Buckeyes have a truckload of quality wins and have only lost on the road to teams that are tournament locks and are undefeated at home this season. Even a loss to Penn St. won't knock Ohio St. off the top line unless it is followed by a loss in the Big Ten quarters. Not only is Ohio St. going to be a number one seed, they are likely to be the top overall seed.
Kansas – Jayhawks are now in cruise control towards a top seed of their own. Losing at Missouri, if it happens won't hurt since nearly everybody losses to them on the road. In addition, there are strong teams up and down the Big 12 roster meaning a conference tournament loss won't drop Kansas to a two unless there are some serious runs made by teams below.
BYU – The first of our teams that likely needs to win out to get its top seed. BYU has four wins against RPI top 25 teams and another five against the top 50 beyond that. The losses are not bad and the the overall RPI is number one. The only reason the Cougars have to win out for a top seed is because of their conference affiliation. If not for that, BYU would be above Kansas and possibly in contention for the top overall seed.
Pittsburgh – The Big East regular season champ is getting a top seed unless they flame out in the conference tournament. Pitt is the leader making them the most likely top seed from that league. Lose one of the remaining two league games (they will be heavily favored at South Florida and against collapsing Villanova) and the league title and possibly top seed goes out the window with it.
Duke – Blue Devils really don't have a top seed resume because the ACC is down, but if they win out or even just win to the ACC Tournament final, they will be given the benefit of the doubt unless the teams in front of them don't lose before them.
Notre Dame – Only in the discussion if Pitt loses a game. Then the Fighting Irish could grab the Big East regular season title (they own the tiebreaker with Pittsburgh because of a head-to-head win, on the road). Do that and take the conference tournament and there is no way a top seed could be denied short of BYU and Duke both winning out.
Purdue – In a similar situation as Notre Dame. In need of an Ohio St. loss to grab a share of the Big Ten title and then win the league tournament. That still may no be enough, but they are at least on the fringe of the discussion.
San Diego St. - Not likely, but if some teams above flame out in conference tournaments, the Aztecs could get back in the equation by winning out and then beating UNLV and BYU in the league tournament to win it. Still more likely to end up as a three than a one.
North Carolina – Once again, not likely. I think they cap at a two, but if they win out to take both ACC championships with a win over Duke in the final, it would be tough to deny them a seed higher than Duke's and the top ACC team generally gets a beneficial seed bump each season whether they deserve it or not.
Texas – Because of their high-profile in this discussion over the last few weeks, I feel I should discuss the Longhorns. They have no chance at a top seed though. It's not happening no matter what. The blowout loss to USC along with losses to Nebraska and Colorado just won't get a team to the top line unless the rest has been perfection. Given the loss to Kansas St. at home last night, perfection is far far away.
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