This one will be a little more in-depth than the others in part because I have followed this league closer than the others over the course of the season.
Opening Round
Wyoming vs TCU – Both of these teams are awful. Wyoming has already fired its coach while TCU can't win in this league meaning it will be even worse once they are in the Big East in two years. I pick Wyoming but it doesn't really matter one way or the other with both teams already carrying 20 losses entering tonight’s game.
Quarterfinals
BYU vs Wyoming – Wyoming has no ability to exploit the Brandon Davies absence. We already saw that last Saturday. Combine that fact with the Cowboys being good and BYU being so much better that Jimmer might not even have to play and you get an ugly blowout.
Colorado St. vs New Mexico – I don't understand why either of these teams are even being talked about for NCAA bids. 9-7 in this league has never gotten a team an at-large so what makes anyone think 9-7 in Colorado St.'s case or 8-8 in New Mexico's case is getting either of these teams in the field without the automatic bid. As for that automatic bid, New Mexico has a much better chance to get it than Colorado St. because of whatever mojo they seem to have against BYU over the last few seasons. Too bad for the Lobos that they have underachieved, especially since Drew Gordon and his nightly double-double became eligible (note that UCLA seems to be just fine without their walking chemistry issue). They will continue to underachieve here making life much easier for BYU in the next round.
UNLV vs Air Force – Tre'von Willis and the rest of the UNLV roster is starting to get hot again like they were early in the season. That is bad news for Air Force and whoever else might draw the Rebels in this tournament being played on UNLV's home court.
San Diego St. vs Utah – Utah is awful and has nobody to send at San Diego St's second-tier starts, let alone at Kawhi Leonard. This could be very ugly if San Diego St. is properly motivated.
Semifinals
BYU vs Colorado St. - One post player is not enough to beat BYU even without Brandon Davies unless everyone shoots lights out. Colorado St. won't shoot lights out and while they have one very good post player in Andy Ogide, they don't have the depth needed to really take advantage. Combine that with BYU seemingly having its focus back after the blowout loss to New Mexico last week and you have a recipe for trouble.
San Diego St. vs UNLV – Expect another knockdown-drag out fight between these two reminiscent of the last few games in this series. When the teams are evenly matched as these teams are (all the games have been close into the final minutes for three years), the lucky bounces are bound to fall the other way eventually. Considering San Diego St. has been winning this game for four years without a blowout among them, the Rebels are due, particularly if the recent hot shooting streak continues.
Final
BYU vs UNLV – Here is where the absence of Brandon Davies will kill BYU. Not because UNLV has depth in the post to throw at BYU though. It's because UNLV has NO depth in the post and Davies will no longer be there to exploit it. In the first game this season in Las Vegas, Davies had his way with the Rebels early opening things up for Jimmer and Jackson Emery to light UNLV up from the outside. Without Davies in the lineup, there is no inside go-to guy to take the pressure off the shooters against UNLV's aggressive man-to-man defense. At the same time, UNLV, if in fact they are in this game will have shot well. If UNLV shoots well early, teams have to switch away from zone defense. When teams in this league play man-to-man against UNLV, they get destroyed because UNLV is more athletic than anyone in the league (except possibly San Diego St.). Both problems will surface here with UNLV finally getting past BYU again after losing both games in the regular season.
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