A couple of weeks ago, I posted the teams that in my opinion are locks. That number has grown by a bit over the last couple of weeks. Today, I will look at the entirety of the bubble though, conference by conference (in order of conference strength). There are 37 at-large bids and 31 automatic qualifiers making a field of 68 teams. Assuming right now that teams that are locked will win conference tournaments, there are 20 spots available for non-locks. This is a ridiculously soft-bubble and any team that doesn't get in has no right to complain (though Seth Greenberg of Virginia Tech will probably stage his annual cry-fest after being excluded as one of the last teams out, again).
Big East
Locks: Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville, Connecticut, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia and St. John's
Currently in the tourney: Cincinnati, Marquette
Still alive but on the outs: none
The Big East looks very good for 10 teams and very well might keep all bids currently assigned to it. The winner of the Cincinnati-Marquette game on March 2 is almost certainly going and as long as there is no collapse, the other looks good though Cincinnati has a brutal schedule from here out that could leave them on the outside. If you believe that the committee might not want to invite so many teams from one league, the loser of that March 2 game might be screwed.
Big 12
Locks: Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M
Currently in the tourney: Missouri, Kansas St., Nebraska
Still alive but on the outs: Baylor
Yes, I have both Kansas St. and Nebraska in the field right now, but both have work to do to stay there. Baylor would likely be in Nebraska's spot had they not lost to Texas Tech on Saturday. Realistically, the Bears can still play their way in, but this is a six-bid league. Missouri is probably the closest thing to a lock not classified as such. Losing out would tempt fate.
Big 10
Locks: Ohio St., Purdue, Wisconsin
Currently in the tourney: Michigan St.
Still alive but on the outs: Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan
Michigan St. only has one bad loss (the blowout at Iowa) and over half of its 14 wins are against the top 100 in the RPI. Minnesota has an injury issue at point guard and they have shown they are not an NCAA Tournament team since the injuries occurred. Illinois has a very similar profile to the one that got them left out despite a truckload of quality wins last year. The Illini have wins over North Carolina and Wisconsin to carry them but are hung with an albatross of a loss against Illinois-Chicago (6-22, 291 RPI). They also are staring at two more almost certain losses with road games against Ohio St. and Purdue remaining. 20-13 and a loss in the Big Ten quarters isn't going to cut it.
ACC
Locks: Duke, North Carolina
Currently in the tourney: Florida St., Boston College
Still alive but on the outs: Virginia Tech, Clemson
Florida St. has injury issues just like Minnesota, but they have responded better meaning their entire profile hasn't been invalidated. Boston College was one of my last teams in so there is much work to be done. Virginia Tech and Clemson submarined themselves with awful losses last week. The Hokies completed getting swept by Virginia while Clemson lost to NC State. Ouch.
SEC
Locks: Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
Currently in the tourney: Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama
Still alive but on the outs: none
Alabama gets in because there is no way a 13-3 power conference team possibly gets left out of the field and the Crimson Tide are likely going to finish there (the won't win at Florida). With Alabama in the field, there are no bubble teams on the outside right now though Tennessee is getting close to Illinois profile territory.
Pac-10
Locks: Arizona
Currently in the tourney: UCLA, Washington
Still alive but on the outs: Washington St.
UCLA and Washington both took losses over the weekend making their upcoming game in a couple of weeks that much bigger. Arizona continues to steam towards a possible protected seed after beating Washington. Sweep the LA schools this week and a top four seed becomes a real possibility, an unthinkable thought in this league on January 1.
Mountain West
Locks: BYU, San Diego St.
Currently in the tourney: UNLV
Still alive but on the outs: Colorado St.
UNLV got the big road win over Colorado St. they needed to stay 3rd in the league pecking order. Now the attention turns to Saturday's nationally televised CBS showdown between BYU and San Diego St. The world that has only seen highlights finally gets to watch The Jimmer play! Trust me, its worth tuning for.
Atlantic-10
Locks: Xavier, Temple
Currently in the tourney: none
Still alive but on the outs: Duquesne, Dayton, Richmond
Temple moves up to the lock line after winning all its games lately. The others beyond the top two are on life support at this point and are near dropping off of this list entirely. It looks like the only way this league is matching last year's three bids is a bid-stealer in the conference tournament.
CAA
Currently in the tourney: George Mason, Old Dominion
Still alive but on the outs: VCU
This league got a ton of help on BracketBuster weekend. All three top teams won making the regular season champion a lock for the field. Of course we don't know who will be the regular season champ will be though George Mason looks likely at this point. Old Dominion has a very good profile and looks solid right now while VCU has the weakest at-large profile, they are holding a bubble comparison victory over UCLA.
Conference-USA
Currently in the tourney:
Still alive but on the outs: Memphis, UTEP, UAB, Southern Miss
This league could end up with two bids or one. It all depends on the conference tournament. There is likely an at-large here for the champ, or for Memphis if they finish second and lose the conference tourney final to UTEP (the conference tourney is at UTEP).
Horizon
Currently in the tourney: Butler
Still alive but on the outs: Cleveland St., Valparaiso
Butler sneaks back in the field after being left for dead a few weeks ago. Valpo hasn't gotten any love as an at-large, but with an RPI that has now snuck into the top 50 and the current lead in the conference standings, maybe the Crusaders aren't as far off as everyone thinks.
Missouri Valley
Currently in the tourney: none
Still alive but on the outs: Missouri St., Wichita St.
This league probably had its at-large hopes extinguished after getting steamrolled during the BracketBuster weekend. The best hope it probably a Missouri St. sweep to the final only to lose to Wichita St. there.
WCC
Currently in the tourney: Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Still alive but on the outs: none
St. Mary's committed profile assassination last week with its two losses. Had they won both games, they would be one home win against Gonzaga this week from lockdom. Instead, the Gonzaga game is a who can stay in the field game.
WAC
Currently in the tourney: Utah St.
Still alive but on the outs: none
Utah St. got the win they needed against St. Mary's. With the quality win, a run to the WAC final should be enough though the Aggies probably shouldn't tempt fate, especially if St. Mary's collapse continues.
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