A look at the tournament chances of teams in the Mountain West and what those teams need to do to either retain their standing or gain ground to ultimately make the tournament.
Teams that should start preparing for Las Vegas now (need the auto-bid): Air Force, TCU, Utah, Wyoming
Teams that are not really in the at-large hunt right now but can get there by greatly exceeding expectations:
Colorado St. (12-5, RPI 57 SOS 66) – The Rams currently sit at 2-1 in Mountain West play with the loss to New Mexico. To have any realistic shot at the tournament as an at-large team, the bubble needs to remain very soft (it likely will, this is among the worst years ever in the ACC, many of the mid-major league haven't picked up the slack and the SEC and Pac-10 still haven't recovered from their recent total meltdowns to produce anything near their normal level of quality tournament level teams. Also, the Rams must not lose any games to the teams in the category above them. They also need at least three and possibly four wins against the San Diego St., BYU, UNLV trio and to finish ahead of at least one of them in the league standings. 3rd place with a league record like 12-4 or 13-3 gets the Rams in the conversation despite some awful non-conference losses.
New Mexico (12-5, RPI 69 SOS 101) – Though they have a head-to-head win over Colorado St., the Lobos are in arguably worse shape as far as the NCAA tournament goes. The RPI is lower, the SOS is lower and there are bad losses including one terrible one against Wyoming in league play. For New Mexico to get back in the at-large picture, they likely need to sweep UNLV or BYU and finish the sweep of Colorado St. Colorado continuing to win in Big 12 play and turnarounds by severely underachieving Arizona St. and Texas Tech teams would help quite a bit as well. 12-4 in the league should be sufficient here, but with two losses already, that only allows for two more. Considering the matchup problem that San Diego St. gives the Lobos, winning on the road there is not happening and beating BYU on the road is unlikely as well.
Team that should be in as it stands now:
UNLV (14-4, RPI 21, SOS 30) – The Rebels only have one bad loss on the resume and as long as they beat the teams who they should beat there will be no sweating on Selection Sunday. The wins over Wisconsin, Virginia Tech and Kansas St. carry some weight. If UNLV beats either BYU or San Diego St. in the rematches later this season, the Rebels could likely absorb a loss or two on the road to New Mexico and/or Colorado St. and still have nothing to worry about. Winning against everyone would be nice though. The Rebels have been stuck in 8-9 hell in their last two appearances in the tournament and winning to get to the seven of six line would be advisable.
Locks and playing for seeing:
BYU (16-1, RPI 4, SOS 15) – Those sterling computer numbers are incredible. BYU is in contention for a top three seed and the regular season championship in the Mountain West could get it for them. I don't think there is enough in the non-conference for a number one seed, particularly if UCLA (who beat the Cougars) continues to scuffle in Pac-10 play. The RPI is amazing for this time of year, but there is no way that holds quite that high all season in the Mountain West though it will stay in the top 20, easily and could stay in the top 10 if BYU keeps winning.
San Diego St. (17-0, RPI 2, SOS 29) – All those road wins make San Diego St. a computer monster with the emphasis on road wins added to the RPI a few years ago. The Aztecs are a contender for a number one seed even if they drop a game or two to the likes of UNLV and BYU on the road. No matter, no team is going to want to see the Aztecs drawn against them in the early rounds of the tournament. Of the three undefeated teams left, San Diego St. is the most likely to make it through the regular season without a loss.
Realistically, this league looks like three-bid league. Remember that it would have been that last season had San Diego St. not won the conference tournament. That is pretty good for a non-BCS conference league with a bad tv deal that keeps it off ESPN.
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