Team Capsules are in order of predicted finish. Records are current as of the begging of the day on Thursday December 16
San Diego St. - 11-0, Quality wins at Gonzaga and Cal and vs St. Mary's and Wichita St.
The Aztecs are led by the rare NBA prospect running through the Mountain West, Kawhi Leonard. He is just one rebound on the season from averaging a double-double and the difference he makes in the lineup is immense. Witness the close game with Cal Poly over the weekend when Leonard didn't play. With Leonard in the lineup, only Gonzaga has eve been close to the Aztecs. In addition to Leonard, the Aztecs have three others averaging double figures in scoring and the team from top to bottom is the most athletic in the Mountain West.
UNLV – 9-2, Quality wins over Wisconsin and Virginia Tech, Bad loss to UC Santa Barbara
Don't pay any attention to the loss against UCSB. The Rebels have one or two games like that every season where they outplay the opposition but can't shoot straight and lose. Normally it happens in conference play, but this season they got one out of the way a bit earlier. This team is a veteran squad and they will get it figured out despite a very disheartening last three halves of basketball after leading Louisville at the half. That said, the Rebels need to figure it out quick with a trip to Kansas St. ahead. Even if they don't have it all back in working order by that game, they should still be in very good shape for an NCAA Tourney bid.
BYU – 10-0, Quality wins over South Florida, St. Mary's and Arizona (by blowout)
The Cougars are definitely good again, but they have been tested by some teams that aren't as good as usual. UCLA will be yet another of those team this week. Jimmer Fredette is the best pure shooter in college basketball, but he alone won't be enough to beat San Diego St., a much more athletic team or UNLV, a team that matches up very well with the Cougars. Nonetheless, the NCAA Tournament is likely again before BYU vacates the Mountain West.
New Mexico – 7-1, Quality win over Arizona St., Loss was blowout at Cal
Lobos seem to be doing a good job replacing Darrington Hobson, last season's conference player of the year. Other than the two games mentioned against Pac-10 teams, we haven't seen the Lobos play any team with much of a pulse. We will learn much more about this team and if they are a real contender for an at-large tourney berth during a three-game stretch starting next week against Colorado, Texas Tech and Dayton, all away from home.
TCU – 7-4, Quality wins over Houston, USC and Texas Tech, Bad losses to Rider and Northern Iowa
The Horned Frogs have been all over the map so far this season and it all has to do with a very inconsistent offense. In each of the seven wins, TCU has scored at least 74 points while not getting past 61 in any of the four losses. They also need to do a better job of rebounding getting beaten on the boards in three of the four losses and getting absolutely hammered on the glass (-15) in the blowout loss to Nebraska. This team is not a tournament team, but it will likely win a couple of games against the teams in front of them while giving those games back to the bottom end of the league.
Utah – 6-3, No Quality wins, no bad losses
The Utes are nothing if not consistent. Michigan, Utah St. and Oral Roberts are the three best teams they played and Utah lost to them all. The other six are not in that same class and the Utes have beaten all of them. That is the sign of a well-coached but talent-deficient roster. In fact, once you get beyond Will Clyburn and Josh Watkins, nobody else on the team can score at all. Against the better teams on the schedule with decent athletes and defensive stoppers, that is a problem and it will certainly be a problem against the top four in this league.
Colorado St. - 4-3, no quality wins, bad loss to Sam Houston St.
The Rams were supposed to take the step forward and get near the top four in the league this season. While there is still time for coach Tim Miles and his team to do that, it doesn't look good so far. In fact, Colorado St. looks like a mirror of Utah thus far: two scorers (Andy Ogide and Travis Franklin) and nobody else that can be counted on for any offense whatsoever. With that in mind, this team is not good enough on defense or on the boards to overcome the lack of a 3rd scoring option.
Wyoming – 4-6, no quality wins, littered with bad losses
The Cowboys are a bad basketball team. They can't score (under 70 points per game) and share the ball even worse (just 10.1 assists per game) while being unable to defend at the high level needed to overcome that. If they beat any team in the top four, that will cost a seed line or two when it comes to Selection Sunday.
Air Force – 6-2, No quality wins, no real bad losses all things considered
The Falcons just don't have the talent and aren't likely to ever have the talent to compete in the Mountain West on a consistent basis. The great run of a few years ago was the combination of the right coach at the right time in a down league where normal powers BYU, UNLV and New Mexico were all playing well below historical levels. Considering where these guys are headed after school, I hope they can win a few games, but it doesn't look likely (other than against Wyoming and maybe Colorado St. or TCU).
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